FOXBOROUGH — The Patriots start playing for keeps this morning, as they kick off 2022 training camp.
Well, sort of.
Under the current CBA, each NFL team has to undergo a five-day acclimation process. Day 1, which was Tuesday, is just physicals and any on-field work can't involve footballs. Days 2-3, which begins today, are only in helmets and t-shirts but can be at full speed. Days 4-5, Friday and Saturday, can introduce shells. Sunday is the mandatory off day, and then teams can begin padded practices.
In other words, don't read too much into this first week. The real competition starts on Monday.
With that in mind, here are the top competitions heading into camp, a prediction on who will win and why, and our bold predictions for the entirety of camp.
BOUNDARY CORNERBACKS
Contenders: Jalen Mills, Malcolm Butler, Terrance Mitchell, Jack Jones (R), Shaun Wade, Joejuan Williams.
Favorites: Mills, Mitchell.
Dark horse: Jones.
Heat is on: Butler, Williams, Wade.
Skinny: Mills was solid last season as a No. 2 and seemed to improve, even in man coverage, as the season went along. It would be a surprise if he's not a starter. MItchell is a journeyman who wasn't wanted by the Texans, but his role in offseason practices revealed the Patriots targeted him and think there's something there. Butler ... who knows where he's at after a season off, and he wasn't in demand before that. It's now or never for Williams. With a logjam at safety, the team can no longer afford a matchup specialist who barely did that previously. Jones, the rookie, showed well in offseason practices and could make a big leap depending on his camp.
Who wins the jobs?
Mills and Jones.
Mills will be one cornerback and as long as Jones doesn't suffer some sort of typical rookie setback, like a pulled hammy, then his ball and coverage skills should give him a leg up on Mitchell and Butler. If Jones falters, Mitchell is long and solid. It would not be a surprise to see Butler do the practice squad dance for the first month.
OFF-THE-BALL LINEBACKER
Contenders: Ja'Whaun Bentley, Raekwon McMillan, Mack Wilson, Cameron McGrone, Jahlani Tavai, Harvey Langhi.
Favorites: Bentley, McMillan.
Dark horse: McGrone.
Heat is on: Wilson, Tavai, Langhi.
Skinny: Bentley, the only player with any significant playing time in his system, is here on a two-year extension so he's not going anywhere and, at least to start, will be tough to displace. The Patriots had high hopes for McMillan last year but an injury landed him on IR. Will he be able to regain his form and speed? Wilson has the background (Alabama) and physical skills to be a force in this system, but he has yet to put it together and is in the final year of contract. McGrone was a fifth-round pick despite needing a medical redshirt year and he could be the future Mike. Tavai and Langhi are special teams heroes that have experience.
Who wins the jobs?
Bentley and McMillan.
However, what's more interesting is what happens after that. McGrone (Bentley) and Wilson (McMillan) would seem to be ready-made understudies/competition, but Tavai was brought here by Matt Patricia from Detroit, and Langhi has long been a favorite son here since he popped as a UDFA in 2017. Those are all going to be tough choices for the coaching staff. After Bentley and McMillan, the competition is wide open and it wouldn't be a shock if Wilson and his $2.54 million in ready-made cap space is shown the door if he doesn't pop quickly.
RIGHT TACKLE
Contenders: Isaiah Wynn, Justin Herron, Yodny Cajuste, Andrew Stueber (R).
Favorite: Wynn.
Dark horse: Cajuste.
Heat is on: Wynn.
Skinny: Assuming the Patriots don't switch back to Wynn at LT and Trent Brown at RT, this is likely an open competition on the right side. I'm sure the Patriots would LOVE to get rid of Wynn and his $10.4 million in cap space, especially after he put the off in offseason since having his fifth-year option picked up over a year ago, but the team can't do that until someone proves they can not only the RT job, but as a viable LT backup for the less-than-reliable Brown. Herron is solid if unspectacular. Cajuste, who was a third-round pick way back in 2019, has flashed a high ceiling in his limited and inconsistent playing time. Stueber has yet to be cleared to practice.
Who wins the jobs?
Cajuste and Herron.
The Patriots got themselves into this mess by failing to take a tackle early, again, in the draft, but they shouldn't double down on their repeated mistakes by keeping Wynn around just because he has the most experience. That's gotten them diminished returns for several players, including Stephon Gilmore and JC Jackson. If one or both of Cajuste and Herron show they can start, the Patriots should pay part of Wynn's contract just to move on from him, and to recoup some cap space. They already demoted him from LT. What are they really hanging onto?
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
FIVE BOLD PREDICTIONS
1. Mac Jones loses his stuffing on someone.
We saw a little bit of harder edge to Jones during his second offseason, and at times he was a bit irritated with things, especially when there was a pass rush. At some point, the Patriots are going to struggle, Jones is going to take a personally, and he's going to show that to the rest of the group to get them going. Would not be surprised to see Jones go off on one of the TEs, Jonnu Smith or Devin Asiasi.
2. WR Nelson Agholor pops in Year 2.
We have seen no signs this will actually happen, but we're tossing stuff out there. The big free-agent signing a year ago looked a lot more relaxed for his second season and his contract is tough to move. They'll still need him to provide a deep threat because...
3. Top two picks struggle.
Cole Strange will be fine in the long run, but right now he's not built to anchor against NFL defensive tackles. And coming from a lower-level of football, this is a big step up. It would be natural for him to get off to a slow start. ... Tyquan Thornton was a bit of a project even before the Patriots overdrafted him in the second round, and his playing time could be sparse with a bunch of veterans around.
4. The next two picks do not.
We've yet to see Marcus Jones on the field, but the kid is a natural baller and playmaker when he's healthy. Plus, he'll return kicks. Jack Jones looked the part in OTAs and could be a starter if some vets don't show well initially.
5. CB Malcolm Butler is released at cutdown.
... but is back on the team/roster as one of the 54-56 players on the practice squad who can be promoted. There aren't that many roster spots open at cornerback after Mills, Jonathan Jones, Jack Jones and, likely, Mitchell. Wade looked like he was good inside/outside depth in offseason practices and is younger with upside. Where does Butler fit? Usually a guy like Butler, after walking away, never fully comes back. It would be a shock if he's gone entirely at some point, even if he gets early reps — the team might just want to see what he can do early. His start to camp is vital.
