Let's get the obvious part out of the way right from the start: from the time the Red Sox decided they were going to trade Mookie Betts prior to the 2020 season, they faced a losing proposition.
Ownership and upper management came to the conclusion that they couldn't/wouldn't meet Betts' asking price and, rather than risk having him walk after 2020 and get only a draft pick or two in return, would deal him before the season.
But because they were dealing Betts with just one year of control, the Sox understood that they weren't about to get anywhere near full value for one of the game's best players. Still, they made a determination that a mix of major league-ready player(s) and some prospects represented a better return than would a pick or two. In that respect, they were undoubtedly correct.
After negotiating with the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers, the two most aggressive teams, new chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom included David Price to halve the Sox' financial obligations and chose the Dodgers package: Alex Verdugo, Jeter Downs and Connor Wong.
(Actually, as part of an expanded three-team deal, the Red Sox initially were getting Verdugo, and pitcher Brusdar Graterol, the latter via the Minnesota Twins. After being spooked by Graterol's medicals, and concerned that he wouldn't hold up as a starting pitcher, the Sox opted to take Downs and Wong instead).
Betts subsequently agreed to an extension with the Dodgers before he played so much as a regular season game for them. That, in turn, didn't reflect well on the Sox, since Betts had maintained that he desired to test free agency in order to get himself the best deal imaginable. Then, he swiftly changed his mind and agreed to a landmark 12-year, $365 million deal with deferred payments.
It's been speculated that Betts took less than what he might have gotten later that fall because of the pandemic and the fear that the industry's revenues were going to take a substantial hit. Some have also determined that his willingness to sign so quickly with a new team was, indirectly, an indictment of Boston -- both the market and the franchise.
All of that is, for the purposes of this exercise, largely irrelevant. The inability to sign Betts to a long-term extension was a failure of the Red Sox before Bloom joined them. They had already missed their last, best chance to extend him before Bloom was hired the previous October.
But when it comes to rating the talent evaluation and getting the best possible return for Betts, that was done on Bloom's watch. And the early returns aren't good.
The occasion of Downs' promotion to the big leagues earlier this week -- even if it was just for three days -- means that all three players have reached the big leagues. That isn't always the case when a team deals for prospects; sometimes, they stall out at Double-A or Triple-A and never so much as put a major league uniform on. That all three have played for the Red Sox is a victory -- however modest -- for Bloom.
Surely, however, more was expected of all three.
Of the three, Wong was considered something of a longshot. Classified as a catcher, Wong hadn't actually played the position much until college, and the expectation was he would take time to get comfortable with the demands of the role.
His defense has improved since joining the Red Sox and in the handful of games he's filled in in big leagues -- six last season and two far this year -- but Wong has yet to demonstrate that he's a major league-caliber-hitter. At Triple-A Worcester, Wong has had a decent season at the plate -- .269/.344/.401 with four homers and 14 RBI in 43 games. Those aren't horrendous numbers, but neither do they suggest that Wong is ready to make the full-time leap to the big leagues.
Could Wong be a serviceable backup catcher in the majors now? Perhaps. It would seem he could provide at least as much offense as the Sox are currently getting from Kevin Plawecki. And while Plawecki is a solid receiver and game-caller, his throwing is poor and he's yet to catch a single base stealer this season.
Add in the fact that Wong has the versatility and athleticism to handle some infield spots (second, third base) and he could still provide value to the Sox. Whether the Red Sox re-sign Christian Vazquez this fall or land another catcher -- via trade or free agency -- it wouldn't be much of a stretch to see Wong serve as the backup catcher in 2023.
So, not without some return. But hardly the kind of value the Sox expected.
Here's the scouting report from one major league team on Wong: "Solid, always ready to play...Offense has been oversold. He's a backup at best who can't play every day, as he wears down. Good work ethic, yet beyond his commitment, is a very limited player who was hyped earlier in his career. His ceiling is as a backup, and his bat is geared to average pitchers, stuff-wise.''
The future for Downs is even murkier. This marks the second straight season at Triple-A that he's struggled to hit .200. Downs has made strides defensively at short and has shown pop -- he's got 11 homers in 192 at-bats. But as his .396 slugging percentage at Worcester attests, he's no slugger. Indeed, he has just six doubles, indicating that his approach at the plate is all (the homers) or nothing (69 strikeouts in 54 games) -- with little in between.
"I think that everything that came along with the pandemic affected different guys differently,'' Bloom told BostonSportsJournal.com "and I think we've realized now that it was particularly tough for (Downs) -- at the alt site (in 2020) and even, to some degree, last year - who could go in to (Worcester) and who could work with them. This year, those limitations are off and he's seemed a lot more comfortable to me. I know there's still a lot of progress to be made, but he's getting to his ability a lot more often and he's looked a lot better in a lot of aspects
"There's still work to be done. We know what can happen when he makes quality contact. We need to get him to a spot where he is making contact -- and good contact -- more often. I think that will come, but obviously, he's still not a finished product.''
Other evaluators aren't as optimistic about Downs' continuing to grow.
Said one scout: "Tends to press easily. A sensitive kid who has trouble dealing with bad at-bats, taking them into the field. Tough on himself and the major league expectations affect his overall focus on both sides of the ball...Has some instincts on the bases with sound athleticism. Has average speed, but it plays as above-average. Must prove he's better than a lower-in-the-order hitter who feasts on Nos. 4 and 5 starters....Tooled out physically yet not consistent enough to see beyond him being an extra type, with a hitting approach that overcompensates against good pitching rather than using the whole field. Good kid, and if he can relax and focus he's capable of some good streaks with the bat. Seen as a utility type lacking position flexibility that is at least average...Limited to second base.''
Finally, there's Verdugo, who, in some ways, was supposed to be the surest thing and, instead, has been the biggest disappointment.
After a stellar first season in Boston, Verdugo appeared to profile as above-average corner outfielder with athleticism and some power. Verdugo had a .844 OPS in 2020 with an OPS+ of 123. But in each of his last two seasons, he's regressed. He finished last year with an OPS+ of 103 -- just a tick above average -- and this year, sports an OPS+ of just 77. He has five homers in 65 games.
And sure, Verdugo has hit into some tough luck for large chunks of the year. But as the halfway point to this season, his output has been decidedly underwhelming. His OBP, slugging percentage and OPS dipped from 2020 to 2021 and again from 2021 to this season.
Once someone who looked like a key building block for the Red Sox, he now more closely resembles a complementary player.
"After 2020, I kept waiting for him to go off,'' said one major league evaluator. "Instead, he's gone in the other direction. I'm not sure what's happened there.''
So what are we left with?
* A major league corner outfielder who tends to be streaky and lacks home run power, but can deliver doubles when he's going well. For his career, full of ups and downs, Verdugo has a .,767 OPS, which profiles as a tick better than average. He's made himself into a pretty good defender in left, but he doesn't run particularly well. A solid regular, but ultimately, unspectacular.
* Two prospects who are likely to contribute some -- but not much -- and likely, not as everyday players. Wong's catching skills are at least adequate, and while his throwing mechanics have improved over time with some coaching, he still doesn't flash much of an arm. He can help out in spot duty at other infield positions, but then, so, too can plenty of other players. Wong was supposed to supply value behind the plate, but there's nothing to suggest he's going to be anything more than a decent backup -- if that.
As for Downs, he flashes occasional pop, and is conscientious. But he has difficulty accessing his power because of high swing-and-miss tendencies, and lacks the range or arm to help out for an extended period at short. Again, at best, a backup infielder.
That hardly seems like an adequate return for a player (Betts) who, when healthy -- he's currently sidelined with a rib fracture -- is among the half-dozen best players in baseball.
At this point, it's hard to argue the Sox would have been better off with Graterol. Graterol may never be the starter the Sox were seeking, but even a high-leverage reliever with the ability to gets lots of swings and misses would have been more valuable than an infielder stalled at Triple-A and someone who, at best, could be a mediocre backup catcher.
Other trades Bloom has orchestrated have played our far better. He stole Nick Pivetta (and Connor Seabold) for two veteran relievers (Heath Hembree, Brandon Workman) who not only didn't help the Phillies, but have also bounced around the game. These are the kind of swindles baseball executives dream of making. Pivetta has become a bonafide No. 2 big-league starter and the Sox still have multiple years of control. Seabold hasn't made the leap to the big leagues yet -- he had a spot start last season, and could get another this week in Toronto. But even without any contributions -- to date or in the future- from Seabold, the deal is lopsided in favor of the Sox.
Even the Andrew Benintendi trade -- roundly criticized at the time -- is looking more like a good exchange for the Sox. Franchy Cordero will always be limited -- against lefties, and though he's shown improvement, with his contact rate at the plate. But he's athletic, powerful and could be a solid platoon contributor. And the more the Sox see of Josh Winckowski, the more they like. Once viewed as someone who would likely only reach the big leagues as a bullpen arm, he's showing the ability to be a solid back-end starter.
But the Betts deal now looks like a big disappointment. Again, no deal Bloom could have made would have felt like a worthy return. When you give up the best player in the deal, you're going to lose the trade regardless. But even considering that circumstances made even a draw unlikely, the Sox did not fare well.