Since the second week of May, the Red Sox have been one of two hottest teams in baseball.
After their 10-19 start threatened to capsize their season, the Red Sox executed a nice turnaround. Entering play Friday night, the Sox had gone 25-12, a ,676 winning percentage.
In that stretch, they've led all of baseball in runs scored, batting average, OPS, extra-base hits and total bases. They ranked second in doubles and in run differential.
And relative to the division race, what did that get them? Absolutely nothing. On May 10, the Red Sox sat 10 games out of first in the American League East.
This weekend, not only have they not inched closer despite a winning percentage near .700; they've actually lost ground and are now 14.5 games back. Take Thursday as an example: on the same day the Sox suffered a rare defeat, losing to the A's to snap a three-game winning streak, the Yankees beat Tampa Bay in walk-off fashion and the Yanks picked up yet another full game in the standings.
The Yankees sport a .754 winning percentage, which translates into winning three of every four games. At their current pace, the Yankees would win 122 games, eclipsing even their magical 1998 season, when they won 114 games, that made quick work of every postseason opponent en route to what would be their first of three straight World Series.
Incredibly, the Yankees have compiled this record despite stints on the Injury List for a number of key players, including Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, Aroldis Chapman and others. In Chapman's absence, Clay Holmes has emerged as a top-flight reliever. Others have stepped forward to cover for the loss of regulars.
Aaron Judge is having the best year of his career, making good on the bet he placed on himself at the start of the season when he passed on a contract extension offer of seven years and $213.5 million. Nestor Cortes has emerged as a front-of-the-rotation starter to pair with Gerrit Cole. Even a discarded Matt Carpenter, languishing in the minors, has been a revelation.
"I expected they'd be good,'' said one major league talent evaluator of his pre-season expectations for the Yankees. "But they've gone way, way beyond that. Right now, I don't think it's arguable -- they're the best team in the game, and it's not really close.''
Can they stay that way? It would seem so.
Let's do the math, and use the Red Sox as a guide. If the Yankees were to merely play .500 the rest of the way -- and it's hard to envision them being that mediocre for that long -- the Sox would have to go 64-32 to overtake them. That seems highly unlikely.
The Yankees are already 33 games over .500. To put that into perspective, at the end of last season, just three teams in baseball finished 30 or more games over .500.
Sometimes, teams run off and hide from everyone else. The Red Sox did so in 2018, winning 108 games and leading the division nearly from wire to wire.
So, what does that mean? Not much for now.
Sure, winning the division and earning a first-round bye under the new MLB postseason format would be nice. If the Red Sox are to make the playoffs as a wild-card entrant, they'd need to finish as the top wild card team in the American League in order to host their best-of-three wild card series.
Otherwise, finishing as the second or third wild card means playing all three games on the road, just to qualify for the Division Series, for which the Yankees would have already automatically qualified. To get a crack at the Yankees this time, the Red Sox will have to win a wild-card round while the Yankees are home resting and getting their pitching order. IT can be done.
It's far less likely that the Sox can catch the Sox in the division race, even with more than half the season still to play. The Red Sox have 16 games left with which to make up ground, and it would take a ridiculous run of head-to-head dominance on the part of the Sox to make up anywhere near the necessary ground.
At some point, it's likely the Yankees will cool off somewhat. But their considerable cushion provides them with a significant safety net.
The Sox' best route is a wild-card spot, and for the time being, that's where their focus should lie.
It stands to reason that there will be a handful of teams battling for the three wild card spots in the American League. Here's a look at the field, with a look at strengths and weaknesses, remaining games with the Red Sox and current record against them, since those head-to-head records could conceivably go a long way in determining who gets into the playoffs and who stays home.
TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Most people expected that, if one team was going to run away with the East, it would be the Jays. It hasn't worked out that way. A number of Jays regulars (Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette) started slowly and the Jays have been a middle-of-the-pack offense, which no one saw coming. The Jays have had bullpen issues outside of the work of Jordan Romano has been spotty (the Jays rank 21st when it comes to bullpen ERA.
The top duo of Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman has been terrific, but the same can't be said about either Jose Berrios or Yusei Kikuchi. Worse, veteran Hyun-Jin Ryu is lost for the year.
Look for the Jays to be aggressive at the deadline for the second year in a row. (They landed Berrios last year). Ownership is all in on this roster and will deal from a strong farm system to acquire whatever help they need.
Sox record vs. Jays: 2-5
Remaining games: 12
TAMPA BAY RAYS
Remember how last year, no one could figure out how the Rays were one of the top scoring teams in the game? No one is asking that question now, as the Rays are struggling mightily to score runs. The Rays are 24th in runs scored. The defense has been sloppy at times, too, which is hardly typical of recent Rays teams. The Rays have to hope that when wunderkind Wander Franco returns from the IL and a rehab assignment, he'll help boost both aspects of the team. As always, the pitching is dangerous, as the Rays continue to uncover one promising arm after another. As always, there are questions about ownership's financial commitment. The Rays have prospects to move, but how much -- if any -- payroll they're willing to take on is an open question. And with the Rays' stadium search coming to a head, they may be less willing to spend than usual.
Sox record vs. Rays: 1-2
Remaining games: 16
CHICAGO WHITE SOX
The White Sox, who won the AL Central a year ago and were heavy favorites to repeat, are, instead, a mess. They sit in third place in the division, with a losing record. They were supposed to have one of the best rotations in the league, but injuries to Lance Lynn and, more recently, a scare for Michael Kopech have been costly, and so, too, was the poor work of Dallas Keuchel, subsequently released. Luis Robert missed time, which also hurt, and now, closer Liam Hendriks is shelved. But much of the focus is on embattled manager Tony La Russa, who's made some odd in-game decisions and recently had to listen "Fire Tony" chants in his own ballpark. From a distance, the White Sox seem dysfunctional, and like the Phillies in the NL, may need a managerial change to shake them from their doldrums, but most doubt that owner Jerry Reinsdorf will approve firing his good friend a second time.
Sox record vs. White Sox: 2-4
Remaining games: 0
CLEVELAND GUARDIANS
If the White Sox are the Central's chronic underachievers, then the Guardians are punching above their weight. Terry Francona, having survived a COVID scare to add to his seemingly endless array of physical ailments has his team right in the mix, in large part because of an MVP-caliber season by the game's most underappreciated superstar Jose Ramirez. Logic dictates that Ramirez can't carry the lineup for the entire season, but the way he's going, perhaps he can. The rotation is strong and deep, and so is the bullpen. Bet you didn't know that set-up man Eli Morgan has a 39-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio and an 0.537 WHIP. If anyone can get the most out of a roster, it's Francona. Like the Rays, the Guardians will be limited in how much additional salary they can assume at the deadline, though perhaps the emergence of new limited partner David Blitzer will help somewhat.
Sox record vs. Guardians: 0-0
Remaining games: seven
MINNESOTA TWINS
I fully expect the Twins to hold on and win the division, but since their current lead is just a game and a half over second-place Cleveland, one can't assume much about the Central. They sport a good starting rotation, led by reclamation projects Chris Archer and Sonny Gray, though the loss of Chris Paddock for the rest of the season is a big blow. From a lineup standpoint, Byron Buxton has stayed (mostly) healthy and showing exactly how good he can be, and after an underwhelming start, Carlos Correa is just starting to get going. After a hugely disappointing season last year, the Twins are determined to make a run this year, and an uber-aggressive front office could be among the most active in the game at the deadline.
Sox record vs. Twins: 2-2
Games remaining: three
LOS ANGELES ANGELS
The Houston Astros aren't quite the division lock that the Yankees are, but they're close. And I refuse to acknowledge the Texas Rangers as legitimate wild-card players. That leaves the Los Angeles Angels, who, when the Red Sox last saw them, were celebrating the end of a two-week losing streak that cost Joe Maddon his job. The Angels are flawed for sure, and word came this week that Anthony Rendon is done for the season with a wrist injury. But the Angels have Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani and that should count for something. And at a time when hanging around .500 can keep you in contention for one of three wild-card spots, they can't be dismissed despite real concerns about the quality of their starting rotation. Owner Arte Moreno is a mercurial sort, but having invested more money in this team than any other he's had, he may be willing to spend to make the Angels better at the deadline.
Sox record vs. Angels: 4-3
Games remaining: 0
