Well, they're off.
After a taxing week of (checks notes) two whole mandatory minicamp practices, your 2022 New England Patriots are largely done for the offseason. They have headed to far-flung places and flower festivals, and when we next see them in late July, it will be full steam ahead for training camp and the regular season.
Whatever that may bring us.
So now is as good a time as any to give you our parting look at the current state of the 53-man roster, and who might be the surprising departures when it comes down to it.
Let's start with the roster number. We should have learned our lesson from last year, but we didn't in our initial foray at projecting the opening roster. We did make note of the big change, but we didn't give it the respect it deserves:
No. 2, teams basically have 56-man rosters because they can now elevate three players (up from two) from the practice squad without having to pass through waivers. They can now be elevated three times (up from two) before they have to be signed to the 53-man roster.
This is how we ended up with the Brian Hoyer/Nick Folk dance early last season — Mac Jones was the only QB on the initial 53, and UDFA Quinn Nordin was your kicker for a while. The Patriots used 24 elevations last season (including special COVID elevations). With the players and elevations being increased, figure the Patriots will be in the mid-30s now on elevations. It will be very tough to do that with either Folk or Hoyer this year because both are signed through 2023 and would cost the team a decent chunk in dead cap (before writing that, I thought Hoyer was in the final year of his deal, so that changes things with him ... now I need another roster spot, unless the Patriots start pushing a lot of cap forward). But expect the Patriots to do the initial practice squad dance with some guys they value that may not get signed elsewhere (those players are designated as a PS on the roster projection).
As usual, we're a big dumb idiot. I should have not have just left it there. The Patriots cut two surprising veterans last year at the final cutdown, because the rules allowed it (and, really, you're likely going to have a major injury in the first month) and the Patriots took full advantage with the two callups last year. Now they get another one, and players only have to be on IR for four weeks to return.
So, quite obviously, Bill Belichick is going to initially go with a 56-man roster, as he should.
The problem arises in picking which players will play ball, like Hoyer and Folk did a year ago.
My criteria:
- Has to have a low dead cap hit if released so it's not doubly hurting you;
- A vested veteran (four-plus years service time) who isn't subject to waivers;
- Won't be sought-after by the rest of the league and will like biding his time here.
So who are the prime candidates to be on the shadow roster? Who are my picks at who that will be?
Before we get to that, two players it likely won't be: Hoyer and Folk again, who both got two-year extensions. Folk has $1,705,000 guaranteed this season. Hoyer would have $3,000,000 in dead cap. So scratch that, unless the cap-poor Patriots ($644,594 right now, according to NFLPA records) suddenly strike a fountain of cap space. As it stands, they're going to need to clear some $10 million for this season (hmmm, almost exactly Isaiah Wynn's cap number). That allows them to swallow a decent dead cap charge ... for players they would want to sign again to the roster in this maneuver.
So, here are our candidates:
Makes sense, but unlikely
DE Henry Anderson (guaranteed $1.75 million)
STs Justin Bethel ($883,333 in dead cap)
LB Jahlani Tavai (clears $1.1 million in cap, but would latch on)
DT Byron Cowart (Not enough service time)
DT Daniel Ekuale (Not enough service time)
STs Matthew Slater (got the four-year qualifying player benefit that halves his cap hit)
Prime candidates (without factoring re-sign contract ... our math is limited)
S/STs Cody Davis (Net cap gain: $1.3 million)
CB Malcolm Butler (Net cap gain: $724,000 in cap)
WR Ty Montgomery (Net cap gain: $1.3 million)
RB James White (Net cap gain: $700,000)
LS Joe Cardona (Net cap gain: $1 million)
Our picks for players 54-56
Obviously, some of this will be determined by what these players put on film because that could make them attractive to other teams around the league, but Cardona, Davis and Montgomery make the most sense because, considering their veteran base salary when they're resigned, they would basically be an accounting move. The Patriots would save the cap, but give most of it back. So it's a net zero where everyone is happy that they are still getting what they want.
Not sure if Montgomery wouldn't have suitors. White makes a ton of sense, but he'd cost about $400K more to sign back to the roster and may not make it fully back. Butler is definitely a name to watch, but he's in the same boat as Montgomery: will cost more to sign back. But it's not a lot of money. Might make a lot of sense to have a shadow veteran cornerback if both drafted rookies are healthy and on the roster. Our picks:
Cardona
Davis
Butler
Anyways, with that, here is our updated 56-man roster:
CHANGES
Damien Harris off the trade block, for now: Still think this is definitely in the realm of possibility if the rookies show out in the preseason, but he's the first beneficiary of the extra roster spots.
Henry Anderson back on: His contract makes it a bit of pain for him to be on the shadow roster, and he's really the only backup to Deatrich Wise at that LE spot. Plus, he's a good, underrated player who has much to show here. And he can defend the run.
Tre Nixon makes the roster: It could ultimately be a Montgomery for Nixon swap at the end of the day, but for now we think Montgomery will have offers around the league. Nixon had a great minicamp, to the point that I'm starting to look at Jakobi Meyers and wondering if I could use his spot and cap space more efficiently.
Trading Isaiah Wynn: I don't care what I have to take back ... after he finally showed up and was moved to right tackle, I want that $10.4 million in cap space. His play is not worth it. And, yes, I'm light at tackles now with only three, but remember that Mike Onwenu might just be a RT and they should go with someone else at RG. Onwenu is now the fourth OT.
Joe Cardona, Cody Davis and Malcolm Butler are cut but will be on the practice squad to be elevated and re-signed fully in time. Can't see many banging on Butler's door after 2020 shoddy play and 2021 retirement, but everyone will be watching in the preseason.
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NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Time is ticking for Jakobi Meyers to sign his RFA tender, which will likely come this week. The Patriots could reduce his tender by $3 million if he doesn't sign by June 15th. As we said before, that's a crowded room and could that money and roster spot be used better elsewhere? Probably not, but it's worth asking the question.
2. One of the most impressive things during minicamp was how Mac Jones was obviously taking a big step in terms of leadership and ownership over the offense. He's no wallflower rookie anymore. Jones is not holding back trying to get guys on the same page as him. Meyers agreed. “That’s just a capital, Yes. Exclamation mark. Exclamation mark," Meyers told reporters. "What he sees — we all kind of just try to catch up to what’s in his mind and his vision. I know he and the coaches have just been doing a good job of relaying information.
"Ultimately, when we’re out there, he tells us. We’re like, ‘How do want it? What do you want it to be and when do you want it to be there?’ And he’s been really adamant about what he says.”
3. If you thought Tom Brady had something to do with Bucs RB Leonard Fournette re-signing with Tampa a day after he visited New England, you would be right. "When he signed back, he called me and was like. ‘Man, what’s your (explicative) doing up there?’” Fournette told reporters. “So, (Brady) signed back and it was a no-brainer. You know, why wouldn’t I go back?
“I was just shopping around,” Fournette said. “Just seeing what best fits me.”
4. Good news for the defense: Matthew Judon says he's way ahead of his pace from a year ago: “I’m so much more prepared. We’re all speaking the same language and I can talk to my coaches differently this time than last year. We’re reading the same book, same language, same page now and we can expand upon what we did last year.”
5. Isaiah Wynn certainly has an interesting definition of being the best he can be. "I ain’t worried about no contract right now,” he told reporters. “I’m focused on being the best player I can be for the team so we can move forward to the season…That’ll come when it comes.” Not participating in OTAs for the second-straight year is being the best player he can be for the Patriots? That's interesting. “It’s voluntary,” he said. “I was working.”