Well, that wasn't fun.
It was certainly mildly exciting to see the Patriots add a bunch of new players through trade (DeVante Parker, Mack Wilson), free agency (Malcolm Butler, Terrance Mitchell, Ty Montgomery, Jabrill Peppers) and the draft (Cole Strange, Tyquan Thornton, Marcus Jones, Jack Jones, Pierre Strong, Kevin Harris, Chasen Hines). They're at least pieces to the puzzle. Tools in the chest.
But now you have to fit them on a balanced 53-man roster.
And that's where things get interesting, and we took our stab at it. We ended up having to trade one offensive star and another weapon, which was predictable.
A few notes before we get started.
No. 1, injuries will happen and make some moves easier, which makes a lot of this moot — we freely admit that. One of the many roster tweaks the NFL recently made: a team can declare up to eight players to return from IR, and they only need to wait four games to do it. So keep that in mind. Also, a player can return off IR twice, but each time counts against the team’s limit.
No. 2, teams basically have 56-man rosters because they can now elevate three players (up from two) from the practice squad without having to pass through waivers. They can now be elevated three times (up from two) before they have to be signed to the 53-man roster.
This is how we ended up with the Brian Hoyer/Nick Folk dance early last season — Mac Jones was the only QB on the initial 53, and UDFA Quinn Nordin was your kicker for a while. The Patriots used 24 elevations last season (including special COVID elevations). With the players and elevations being increased, figure the Patriots will be in the mid-30s now on elevations. It will be very tough to do that with either Folk or Hoyer this year because both are signed through 2023 and would cost the team a decent chunk in dead cap (before writing that, I thought Hoyer was in the final year of his deal, so that changes things with him ... now I need another roster spot, unless the Patriots start pushing a lot of cap forward). But expect the Patriots to do the initial practice squad dance with some guys they value that may not get signed elsewhere (those players are designated as a PS on the roster projection).
And No. 3, we'll use last season's initial roster as a baseline. The initial 53 breakdown:
QB: 1 (Hoyer on practice squad)
RB: 5
WR: 5
TE/FB: 4
OL: 9
Offense total: 24 (25 with Hoyer)
DL: 10
LB: 4
DB: 8
Defensive total: 22
Special teams total: 7 (included Nordin; Folk on practice squad)
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
So, with that in mind, here is our initial stab, with some explanations, last players out, and some roster spot battles...
FINAL THREE OUT
DE Henry Anderson
WR Ty Montgomery
DT Byron Cowart
POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN
Quarterback (Last year: 1; This year: 3)
I really wanted to save a roster spot until the season started and injuries hit (which will happen) with Brian Hoyer, but his contract kind of eliminates that ... but not entirely. If the Patriots wanted to do that again with Hoyer and Folk, they could have just got them to agree to one-year deals. That didn't happen, which might mean they didn't love that last year. So Hoyer, Joe Judge's tutor, stays and someone else has to go.
Running back (Last year: 5, This year: 4)
Unlike Chase Winovich, I don't want to trade Damien Harris. I love Harris, want him to be the starter and continue on with the tandem he had with Rhamondre Stevenson for one more year, then he can leave in free agency. But the Patriots drafted the replacements for Harris and James White. Would be nice if one or both got the Foxboro Flu, and then Harris stays. I also see Harris' immediate future here linked to White. We have no clue when he'll be back and whether he can play. Maybe White can do the practice squad dance.
Tight end (Last year 4; This year: 4)
No surprises there.
Receiver (Last year: 5; This year: 5)
Now it gets complicated. Of course, N'Keal Harry is gone. Maybe someone will take him. Nelson Agholor or Kendrick Bourne could also be on the move ... but it all depends if the Patriots really like what they see in Ty Montgomery, Kristian Wilkerson and Malcolm Perry. As of right now, I see no reason why it shouldn't just be Tyquan Thornton taking Gunner Olszewski's roster spot.
Tackle (Last year: 4; This year: 4)
It's Yodny Cajuste vs. rookie Andrew Stueber for the last tackle spot. Loser gets the practice squad.
Guard/Center (Last year: 5; This year: 5)
Kody Russey right now is the favorite to be the annual UDFA to make the roster. But it could be either rookie Chasen Hines or someone else to grab the final guard/center spot. Keeping someone else here means you lose a spot elsewhere.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
Henry Anderson
Defensive end/edge (Last year: 5; This year: 4)
So in a slight tweak from years past, I'm grouping ends (five technique) with the edge players based off the first OTA. Seems like they're only going to have one true edge player (the Leo), and use more of an end on the other side on early downs (good luck, Deatrich Wise). When I realized I needed to have Hoyer on the roster, Henry Anderson was on the roster to backup Wise — and it was between Anderson and Byron Cowart for that spot since both have inside/outside versatility.
Defensive tackle (Last year: 4; This year: 4)
No real surprises here. No real additions, so sticking with the same group that underachieved. No guesses who would go to get Sam Roberts on the roster.
Off-the-ball linebacker (Last year: 4; This year: 4)
Dont'a Hightower and Kyle Van Noy out, Cam McGrone and Mack Wilson in. No real surprise there. I'm sure it will be painful to cut Harvey Langhi and Jahlani Tavai initially, but they're perfect to be on p-squad ready for an elevation.
Cornerback (Last year: 5; This year: 6)
This is where the pain comes back. Patriots have only subtracted JC Jackson, yet they've added Malcolm Butler, Terrance Mitchell, Marcus Jones and Jack Jones. And the resulting pain is felt here (Shaun Wade) and also at safety (Myles Bryant, Joshuah Bledsoe). Wade deserves a long look, but someone would then be gone ... who? I think Butler would have to be at the top of the list. So this is essentially Wade vs. Butler. If Butler doesn't have it, then Wade gets the spot.
Safety (Last year: 3; This year: 4)
Only three safeties (Devin McCourty, Adrian Phillips, Kyle Dugger) made the initial 53 last year, so you're losing a spot elsewhere with Jabrill Peppers ... whenever he gets back ... if he gets back. A nice PUP trip to start the season is possible, which would mean Bledsoe gets his shot, or my guy Myles Bryant sticks.
Special teams (Last year: 7; This year: 7)
For the 33rd year in a row, same group.
COMPETITIONS
- Anderson vs. Cowart for last DL spot.
- Cajuste vs. Stueber for last OT spot.
- Durant vs. Hines for last OG spot.
- Butler vs. Wade for last CB spot.
- Jake Bailey vs. Jake Julien for punter.
- Bledsoe vs. Peppers' health status for 4th safety.
- Damien Harris vs. Kevin Harris' progress for RB spot.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Some other roster rule changes:
- Instead of one big cutdown day, it's back to being staggered a little bit: 85 on Aug. 16, 80 on Aug. 23, 53 on Aug. 30.
- 16-player practice squads are now permanent. Six can be veterans with any number of years in the NFL.
2. Some tweaks to the coaching hiring rules:
- Teams cannot interview a head-coaching candidate who is employed by another NFL team until the third day after the conclusion of that team’s Week 18 game (non-playoff qualifiers, bye teams), or wild-card games. This would have headed off the controversy with Bill Belichick allowing Joe Judge to interview with the Giants during the now-prohibited window, while Josh McDaniels was unaware and working.
- No in-person interviews are permitted with candidates who are employed by other teams until after all wild-card games have ended.
3. Browns TE David Njoku, who caught a total of 55 passes and six touchdowns the past two years, received a four-year, $57-million contract extension. No, that's not a misprint.
4. Jimmy Garoppolo might finally be free from San Francisco after Kyle Shanahan admitted the QB is likely on the way out.
"I expect at sometime, most likely, he’ll be traded but, who knows,” Shanahan told reporters. “That’s not a guarantee. It went on hold when it (surgery) happened. When he’s healthy we’ll see what happens.”
5. The Joc Pederson-Tommy Pham fantasy football brouhaha has already locked up the best/most horrifying sports story of the year.