For all the NBA Finals analysis being pumped out from all corners of the internet (much of which will be coming from this keyboard over the next few days), there may be one simple question that determines the course of this series.
How is Robert Williams’ knee?
This isn’t to say if Williams can’t go that Boston has no shot. It’s not some pre-excuse. Injuries are part of how things go in the playoffs. Sometimes you benefit from them, like Boston did with Khris Middleton being out and Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler being hobbled. Sometimes you don’t.
This is one of those times where each percentage point Williams is below 100% is a drop in Boston’s chances of winning the series.
“Rob’s alright. He's good,” Ime Udoka insisted Tuesday morning. “He felt good. His minutes were low (in Game 7)… Obviously, that's beneficial for him going forward, but the days off as well. So he should feel better in general. Getting looked at today and will continue to get his treatment and rehab and in order to get swelling down and some of the pain and mobility back.”
The Celtics defense has been elite over the course of the season, and it has stood up well in the playoffs. They have the second-best defensive rating of the playoffs, 105.1, behind Milwaukee’s 102.7. They’ve done it with a mix of Williams being some level of healthy, getting by against the Bucks and Heat largely because Grant Williams’ physicality matched very well with Miami’s and Milwaukee’s muscle.
But now the series shifts to the Bay, and the Golden State Warriors are more of a finesse team. They are about speed and precision much more than they are about brute force. The Celtics are basically going from fighting Mike Tyson to Floyd Mayweather, and it requires a major change in style.
Boston’s been able to do that pretty well, in large part because of Robert Williams. Getting that swelling down and the mobility back will be paramount for Williams. When he’s on the floor, good things happen on both ends for Boston, but it’s his defensive versatility that's most important.
According to Cleaning The Glass, teams are scoring 6.8 fewer points per 100 possessions with Williams off the floor in the playoffs. He cuts into the opposition’s offensive rebounding and he increased their turnover percentage.
That's especially important against the Warriors, a high-turnover team that loves to crash the offensive boards.
Williams also drops the opponent’s shooting percentage by a fair amount. In the playoffs, teams are shooting 4.7% lower than their average on all mid-range shots, and perhaps more impressively, he’s holding them to 1.7% less on 3-pointers, including -2.2% on corner 3-pointers.
If there's any silver lining in this series is that if Williams is unable to play, Daniel Theis might get a chance to get into the lineup again. With the level of physicality dropping down a few notches, Theis will be able to slide in and give Boston a little more size at the rim should they want it.
However, nothing will replace a healthy Williams. The good news, though, is that the schedule is playing a little into Boston’s favor here. They don’t play Game 1 until Thursday, which gives Boston at least a few days of non-competition to get right. After that, there are two days off in between all games except before Game 4, where there's one day off in Boston.
“Should feel better with time in between, especially with these two days off in between games, as opposed to playing every other day,” Udoka said. “I think going back to the Milwaukee series we had played 17 days straight every other day, and so that's going to take a toll on you coming off a surgery. We keep His minutes down and get him back to feeling better, obviously that will benefit us going forward.”
The playoffs are admittedly small sample sizes, but Williams’ impact is clear. There is a lot to dive into with this series, and there are a lot of factors that will play a role in who wins the championship.
But Boston’s best chance at raising Banner 18 hinges on a healthy Williams on the defensive end. If he can play and be effective, it might just be the difference in holding the Warriors offense down enough for Boston to pull it out.
