ROUND THREE
(1) Miami Heat vs. (2) Boston Celtics
SCHEDULE
Game 1: Tuesday, 5/17, 8:30 PM, ESPN
Game 2: Thursday, 5/19, 8:30 PM, ESPN
Game 3: Saturday, 5/21, 8:30 PM, ABC
Game 4: Monday, 5/23, 8:30 PM, ABC
Game 5*: Wednesday, 5/25, 8:30 PM, ESPN
Game 6*: Friday, 5/27, 8:30 PM, ESPN
Game 7*: Sunday, 5/29, 8:30 PM, ESPN
* If Necessary
TEAM RANKS
Boston:
Offense (Regular Season): 113.6 (T-8th)
Offense (Playoffs): 112.5 (8th)
Defense (Regular Season): 106.2 (1st)
Defense (Playoffs): 105.2 (3rd)
Miami:
Offense (Regular Season): 113 (12th)
Offense (Playoffs): 114.5 (5th)
Defense (Regular Season): 108.4 (4th)
Defense (Playoffs): 104.6 (2nd)
THE BIG STORYLINES
The Celtics are coming off a series with Milwaukee that featured two teams essentially beating each other over the head with 2x4s. Giannis Antetokounmpo was otherworldly, but Boston stood up next to that mountain and chopped it down with the edge of their hands. The stifling defense was able to not only force Antetokounmpo into a very inefficient series, they were able to do it without sacrificing their defense on Milwaukee’s other players. It continued Boston’s dominant defensive run through two series.
Miami enjoyed a top seed’s path through Atlanta, where the Hawks were terribly overmatched. The Heat then faced a Sixers team that was without Joel Embiid for the first two games due to an orbital bone fracture, and without James Harden for the final two games due to -- oh wait, I’m being told he did play, he was just invisible.
This sentiment has led to the Heat feeling very overlooked, and they are not happy about it. They are a team looking to step into these conference finals and prove they not only belong, but are the top seed for a reason.
THE BIG PLAYERS
Boston: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Al Horford
Tatum’s Game 6 was legendary, and he’s capable of being the best player in this series. Offensively, he has the opportunity to find advantageous matchups while defensively, he’ll be able to help a little more and maybe step into some passing lanes. Brown will be able to operate in the space Miami clears if they sell out to stop Tatum, meaning he can have an incredibly productive series as well. Horford, fresh off defending Antetokounmpo, will be rewarded with having to guard Bam Adebayo. Congratulations, Al. However, Horford will be important offensively. He will either help bust Miami’s zone, or he will post up mismatches if Adebayo switches off of him.
Miami: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro
Butler is fourth in playoff scoring, just ahead of Tatum, so he’s once again raised his game in the postseason. Butler continues to find a way to elevate his game to superstar levels in the playoffs, and will be the latest star to test Boston’s defense. Adebayo will be the most athletic and worrisome threat Boston has seen at the center spot these playoffs. He is crafty and quick, and can make the Celtics pay for slip ups more than any big man they’ve seen so far. He’ll create some for himself as well, and has the potential to swing games. Herro is the Sixth Man of the Year, but he’s had some issues in the playoffs. He’s always one shot away from getting hot and killing you, though.
THE BIT PLAYERS
Boston: Grant Williams, Derrick White, Payton Pritchard
Grant might not be dared to shoot quite like he was in Game 7 against Milwaukee, but he’ll have his chances against Miami no matter what defense the Heat play. He’s going to be heavily relied on to hit shots, especially if Miami goes to a zone. The drive-and-kicks will be flowing. The same goes for White, but White’s impact might be more as a “Herro stopper.” The Celtics will need him to hound Herro and prevent him from going off. Pritchard might have more opportunities against certain Heat lineups, and will also be called upon to hit shots against zones.
Miami: PJ Tucker, Victor Oladipo, Gabe Vincent, Max Strus
Tucker will draw a big defensive assignment no matter what. If he’s matched up against Tatum, he’ll have to use his strength to wear Tatum down, which either will not go well because he’s used to it by now or it will because Milwaukee basically loosened the lid for Tucker. As always, Tucker will be tasked with burying a team overly concerned with Butler and Adebayo. Oladipo has carved out a nice role with Miami, and might be called upon to play bigger minutes for the defensive boost. Gabe Vincent and Max Strus have been filling in gaps nicely through Miami’s injuries this season. Vincent is most at risk of losing minutes because he’s a smaller point guard who is struggling from deep. Strus, who started in Boston as a 2-way player, has had a nice stretch for the Heat, averaging 14 points against the Hawks and just over 11 against Philly.
THE WILD CARDS
Boston: Marcus Smart, Robert Williams
This is because of injuries, mostly, but also because of the wide variance in what these guys might do this series. Smart is questionable for Game 1 with a midfoot sprain. There's optimism that he'll play, but between that and his quad injury, he’ll be hampered.
If he does play, he may be dared to shoot, especially against Boston’s zone. This is where Ime Udoka’s creativity can kick in, using Smart as a flasher to the free-throw line against zones and trying to pick it apart with his passing. He’s good in that area, and having him there is preferable to having him on the wing.
Frankly, I’m not 100% sure what to make of Rob right now. Udoka didn’t clear anything up on Monday, either.
“Rob is available, just like he was last night,” he said. “I mentioned he'd be on a needed basis, and he's available, no minutes restriction. I'm always going to be a little bit cautious with guys coming off a layoff without touching the court, but it's a little bit different starting a new series as opposed to being injected into a Game 7 or Game 6 or whatever the case was before. But he's available, looking better every day, and getting more confident in that.”
Alright then. Will he start? Will he come off the bench? Will he play at all?
Obviously, he’ll be used. Even if he shifts to a bench role, he’ll be used. The injury, surgery, and then bone bruise has all undone a lot of the cardio and preparation time for Robert Williams. If he doesn’t start, maybe Boston can get a big enough lead to get him some actual game action to stretch him out a bit.
Miami: Kyle Lowry, Duncan Robinson
Lowry is dealing with a hamstring issue, and if he’s not 100% for the Heat, their chances of winning drop significantly. If he is 100%, though, then he can be a difference-maker with his defense, ability to hit big shots, and his general ability to annoy the hell out of everyone. A seven-game series featuring both Smart and Lowry is hell for the officials.
Robinson’s role has been minimized, but he’s killed Boston in the past. The Heat might float a test balloon early to see if Robinson can make shots and kill Boston again. If he can shake loose, this could be a long (short) series for Boston.
THE STRATEGY
Boston’s offense: There will be mismatches for Boston to hunt in this series, which they’ll try to do often. Miami is a tough defensive team, but unlike Boston, they tend to have weak spots that they just hide well through various schemes. Boston’s goal on offense will be to find and exploit those. If Miami goes to a zone, then Boston will have to recognize that early and pick it apart with good passing and cutting.
Boston’s defense: They’ll employ a modified Bucks-style defense, building a wall against Butler to keep him from getting to the rim. If Butler is going to win this for Miami, he’s going to have to do it with jump shots. Expect a lot of bumping on Adebayo to keep him from getting free runs at the rim. Boston’s help defense will be tested, but if they can keep from doubling on Butler and Adebayo, then they can stay home on shooters. If Miami can’t get their 3-pointers off, they won’t score.
Miami’s offense: They’ll try to pick-and-roll Boston to death, hoping to either get Butler or Adebayo at the rim or spray it out to the perimeter for 3-pointers. They'll run dribble hand-offs, which include the threat of Adebayo faking and taking it to the rim himself. There will be a lot of actions to navigate, and the Celtics defense will be tested in a much different way than they were against Milwaukee.
Miami's defense: They are going to junk this series up with a dozen different looks. They will switch, drop, and zone in 10 different ways. They won't stop until they hit on something that works. Boston has to be ready to adjust quickly.
THE PREDICTION
These are two evenly matched teams that could go the distance. They are both talented, mentally tough, and extraordinarily well-coached.
This series boils down to 2 things to me: Boston has the best player, and Miami has defensive holes that can be exploited.
Not only can Tatum be the first-ever Larry Bird trophy winner for Conference Finals MVP (it has to be a Celtic that wins it first, right?), Jaylen Brown can be the second-best player if Miami's defense is too occupied with his teammate.
I think Boston can pick on certain Miami matchups all series long while the Heat find nothing but a brick wall. The Celtics defense is just too good for Miami, and they can single-cover long enough to keep the Heat shooters from getting hot.
Miami is prideful, though, and Heat culture is real. While I'm tempted to say Boston can win it in 5 games, I can see Miami winning Game 1 because they feel disrespected. Adebayo feels like he should have been Defensive Player of the Year, and he'll be on a mission early. I can see a day of national TV narrative swinging Miami's way before Boston lays the hammer down in Game 2. After stealing home court, it'll become a home court series.
Celtics in 6.
