Wanted to get another perspective on the players the Patriots drafted — and some they passed on — so we went to our good friend, NFL Films and Matchup show analyst/executive producer Greg Cosell. Greg's a person I've known for years, he's been a bit of a mentor to me, and if you're looking for someone just to give you an honest assessment on a player's film, Greg's your guy.
It just so happens that he wrote up, as part of his 200-plus player profiles at Fantasy Points (Greg also does in-season film notes off the selected games he studies each week), seven of the nine players drafted by the Patriots — everyone except Cole Strange and Sam Roberts. Here's a snapshot of his thoughts on QB Bailey Zappe.
Probably the best part of his evaluations are his thoughts on a player's "Transition" to the NFL ... what scheme he fits, his initial strengths in the NFL game, and what he'll need to work on to become a top player. One note, especially in how it relates to Strange and also Tyquan Thornton ... Greg doesn't concern himself with draft value. He's only concerned with the film and his assessment of that player entering the NFL. So the value debate concerning the Patriots' draft ... that's just something Greg doesn't do, I know this, so we didn't touch on that specifically.
Greg and I talked for about 35 minutes on the seven players he watched on film, but also his feelings on the value of drafting a guard in the first round, some of the players the Patriots passed on trading out of 21, the other receivers taken around Thornton, and other topics.
This is part one of our talk, along with the unaired podcast for BSJ members (the episode will hit for everyone on Monday), and we'll have the second part as well on Monday.
_____________________________
Q: Thoughts on the merit, based on your study and conversations with people around the league, of taking a guard in the first round of the draft?
Cosell: The first thing I think about when I see the way a team drafts because when I do my evaluations, and I want people to understand, I do all these before the draft so I don't know who's going to be drafted where because I think about Sundays in the NFL, I think about how teams have to play. And so let's now make this specific to the Patriots.
The Patriots were, more than most, a running football team a year ago. More than likely, given who they have on their roster and what they did in the draft, drafting running backs as well, they're likely to start their offense with a run game and have Mac Jones, I don't want to say a system quarterback because everybody's a system quarterback, not be the focal point of their offense. So now, if that's the way you're going to play ... let's say you start your season and you don't have a very good offensive line, but that's the way you want to play because you think ultimately it fits best with your quarterback and what's on your roster from a running back situation and you get to week three, week four and you can't run the ball and your offense is stalled and Mac Jones because he's a certain kind of quarterback — he's really good at what he is — but he's a certain kind of quarterback and your offense is stalling. So then what happens? So then people say, well, we can't run the ball because our offensive line is not very good. So my point is this and I'm not agreeing or disagreeing. I'm just saying that if this is the way your team is, and I believe this is the way their team is, then a guard has greater value to the Patriots than it might to the Buffalo Bills.
So we can sit here and say well, they could have gotten a really good guy in the fourth round. Well, we don't know that. Nobody knows that. By the way, I spoke to another o-line coach in the NFL for more than 30 years who actually loved Cole Strange. Now he didn't say where he would draft him because I don't ask guys that. I try to learn when I talk to coaches. I don't ask them where they're going to draft guys because, to be honest with you, Greg, I don't care where guys get drafted until they get drafted. So, you know, the point being that if Cole Strange is what the Patriots think he is, and he's a day one starter at guard and they can line up with (Rhamondre) Stevenson and (Damien) Harris and I know they have other backs because they drafted them. ... So they want to be a running football team to start and this allows them to be what they want to be and do it well. Then, I think you say well, the pick worked.
I'm not a believer in you could have gotten a guy later or you should have waited until this round. Number one, we don't know that. And number two, they obviously had Cole Strange rated and highly. Far be it for me to say that they're right or wrong in their evaluations. You know, reasonable people, Greg, as you well know, can disagree on evaluations of players. And in this business, you're wrong more than you're right. Even if you're a great drafting team, you're wrong more than you're right, because it's still, no matter how much we rely on analytics or sports science or whatever — and this is only increasing, it still comes down to human beings evaluating human beings. So people are wrong more than they are right. And this is the way the Patriots want to play. And if Cole Strange turns out to be Logan Mankins, I think people will probably say hey, that worked.
(Getty Images)
Kaiir Elam
The trade down ... Patriots passed on Trent McDuffie, Quay Walker, Kaiir Elam, Tyler Smith, Devin Lloyd ... did you like any of those guys?
I can only tell you my evaluation. I loved McDuffie, was one of my favorite corners in the draft. I thought he was a great prospect. They do a great job, maybe it'll change now because Jimmy Lake is no longer at the University of Washington, but he was their DB coach and then their head coach, they've always done a great job with corners. I thought Trent McDuffie was a really high-level prospect. I really liked Kaiir Elam as well. He's a press-man corner at Florida. Played with competitiveness and swagger. He played their boundary corner. I really liked his tape as well.
I think Devin Lloyd was a playmaker-type linebacker ... I think that Lloyd, he had a playmaking feel to his game that he wasn't totally disciplined in the way in which he played, but there was a playmaking feel to his game. Who knows maybe Coach Belichick thought, I don't like the fact that this guy, there's a little bit of a recklessness and a lack of discipline to his game? I don't you know.
Tyler Smith, to me, has to be totally reworked to play tackle in this league. He's a young kid. He's very athletic, a great run blocker in terms of the fact that he's nasty, competitive, needs so much work in terms of past protection. I actually think that he needs to start his career inside and he may not even be ready to start year one. So, you know, from what I've been told, Cole Strange is a plug-and-play player. And Tyler Smith to me is not.
I loved Quay Walker. I thought he was the best of three Georgia linebackers, 6-4, 240. Jamin Davis from Kentucky was drafted by Washington last year, I believe with the 20th pick. I liked Walker more. They were equivalent in terms of size and length. And I thought Walker was a really, really good prospect but again, this is my evaluation. They may have evaluated them differently. I can only tell you what my evaluation is.
Jermaine Johnson ... would he have fit what the Patriots do, or was he just a pass rusher?
No, no, he was a really good run defender. I loved Jermaine Johnson. My feeling is and again, this is my feeling based on tape and then projection and this is the part where guys get it wrong. And maybe I'll be wrong. But I thought Jermaine Johnson, that when we look ahead three years down the road, four years down the road, that he'll be the best edge player in this class. That was my view of Jermaine Johnson based on tape study. He's a really good run defender. I think he's scratching the surface of being a pass rusher. He's long. He's athletic. I really liked his tape a lot.
Tyquan Thornton in the second round. You were high on him coming in, and your evaluation sounded very similar to my thoughts after studying his film.
Very intrigued. I thought he was, along with Jameson Williams, the two most explosive vertical receivers in this draft class and I thought his track speed showed up on tape. He got on top of, he ran by corners. He primarily almost exclusively lined up on the outside. I thought that there was some physicality to the way he played too, some toughness to him. He competed and played a lot tougher than his thin frame might suggest, and that's what really stood out to me. I thought that he had a feel for defeating press coverage as well. You know, he's a South Florida kid. And most South Florida kids as you probably know, they've got grit to them. They've got toughness to them. You have to when you play high school football in South Florida,
Or even youth football.
I'm sure you're right about that. I made the point in my notes that I said he probably will never be a true high volume No. 1 target, but I also thought that he could be far more than just a one-note vertical receiver, but I really liked him. I knew nothing about him other than what he did at the Combine when I started watching his tape and obviously ran a 4.28 40 which was the fastest by anybody any wide receiver at the Combine. He ran in-breaking routes which you know to me that's a tell. When you see guys run a lot of in-breaking routes, slants in-breakers, you know, you have to catch the ball in the middle of the field in the NFL. The game in the NFL is played much more in the middle of the field because of the hash marks whereas the college game is played much more on the perimeter because of the hash marks. And I thought that he showed that toughness. He made some contested catches. I really liked his tape. I was truly surprised, and I'll say this, I didn't think there was much of a difference at all between Tyquan Thorton and Chris Olave based purely on tape study. Now Chris Olave played at Ohio State and the helmet logo often says a lot about the way people view players and we'll see as time goes on, like I said, maybe I'll be wrong, but I really liked having fun thorns tape.
I agree with you. There's something there with this kid and it'll be interesting to see whether he pops or not because I think he's sort of the litmus test on this draft class is sort of, we all know what the Patriots' draft history is at the position ... it hasn't been good.
And again, I don't know any of these kids because I don't get to interview them. Obviously, George Pickens was there but George Pickens supposedly has issues. I thought George Pickens, by the way, was the best receiver on tape in this draft. That was my point of view. I thought Pickens was one and Jameson Williams was two. Actually thought Jahan Dotson could have been pretty close to that as well. But Tyquan Thornton, I will echo what you said, because I watched him in great detail. As you can see by my evaluation. As I said, I didn't know much about him at all. I thought that he had an 8-yard touchdown versus Oklahoma, in the red zone on a fade route where he defeated press man really cleanly with an inside stick. And, you know, it's funny, I remember seeing the same play by another receiver who went high and now I can't remember who it was, and people raved about oh, he's such a great route runner. But Thornton did the exact same thing. But because he was not thought of that way, the narrative ... Thornton wasn't part of anyone's narrative. So no one said anything about him, but I thought the tape said all you need to know.
Yeah, and look, I've known you for years. I know the way you operate. So I'm not going to ask you which of these guys is going to have the more successful career because you and I both know it all depends on scheme, coaches, quarterback ... all this other stuff. But there was a whole group of receivers taken in the same area ... Thornton, Pickens, Alec Pierce, Skyy Moore as well.
I really liked Alec Pierce. I was in the minority. I thought Alec Pierce and Drake London were very similar. Now Drake London went 8th. I loved Alec Pierce. I saw a comp for Alec Pierce after I did him which I didn't think of but I thought it was a very interesting one ... Jordy Nelson. I loved Alec Pierce on tape. You know me well enough to know everything I say is based on watching tape. And I could be wrong. But like you said, there's going to be 10 variables that we don't know about right as we're speaking today.
Cosell's evaluation on Moore, since I didn't follow up on that:
Moore will be somewhat polarizing in NFL draft rooms because of how he achieved his high level production at Western Michigan. He was used both as an outside and slot receiver but was extremely limited in the routes he was asked to run in a very basic college passing game. Moore likely best profiles as a predominant slot receiver as you project and transition him to the NFL, even though he played significant snaps outside, with 43 of his 95 catches in 2021 coming when he was aligned at #1. He lacks length but has a strong, compact frame and he showed the physical and competitive toughness to work effectively inside on slants and glance routes with strong run-after-catch traits. My sense is some will see him as location versatile given his college experience and his ability to work the short game effectively from both outside and inside, but I believe he will likely see most of his snaps inside, with jet sweeps being part of his resume at the next level. Moore made vertical catches at boundary X at Western Michigan, and in today's NFL with such an emphasis on formation versatility, he could certainly see meaningful snaps at #1. But I think he will be most effective and best deployed out of the slot in 11 personnel groupings.
(Getty Images)
Third round they took Marcus Jones...
Love the kid. I know Bill doesn't play a lot of cover 2. Obviously he could totally change because he may not feel like he has great man corners now. He played outside corner which he won't play in the NFL. I mean, unless they're playing against a 5-9 wideout. He played the slot which he could play in the NFL and he played safety. He's an explosive athlete now. He's twitchy, he's sudden. You know the guy I thought of in terms of deployment? I thought of Tyrann Mathieu, who's 5-9. I think Marcus Jones could be your middle hole defender and cover two. I think he could be a starting safety. I think he could play slot corner. All these things that Tyrann Mathieu does. I loved Marcus Jones' tape. The times he got beat as an outside corner at Houston were because he was 5-8 where guys went up over but he's not going to play outside corner in the NFL.
They doubled up a cornerback with Jack Jones, a kid from Arizona State who originally was at USC, had some off-field issues. What do you see out of Jack Jones?
He played outside at Arizona State; he's a slot corner ... because he's 170 pounds. But he was the number one or number two recruited corner coming out of high school. He was big-time coming out of high school. He's actually a really talented kid. I mean, but because he's 171 pounds it's hard to see him playing on the outside. But I think he has all the needed traits to be an effective slot order. He's smooth, he's fluid. He's got some twitch to him. He can play man, he can play zone, even though he's 170, he's physical and competitive, because as you know, slot corners have to do a lot of things. They have to be able to play man, they have to be able to play zone, they've got to be able to play the run. They've got to be able to blitz at times. So I think that in the right situation, he could be a starting slot corner. .... I don't know how they see him, but I think he's a slot corner.
___________________________
Coming in Part 2 on Monday ... I ask Cosell whether he could see Marcus Jones and Jack Jones becoming the next starting free safety and slot corner, respectively, for the Patriots, we discuss the running backs, Bailey Zappe and OT Andrew Stueber. Of course, the entire conversation is on the podcast now for the enjoyment of our members.
_____________________________
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. I have received some pushback on my critique of the Patriots investing a first-round pick on a guard (player not important). This was to be expected among the how-dare-you-criticize-Belichick contingent. Typical whatabout-isms, like if guards didn't truly mean much, why did the Chiefs invest in Joe Thuney as a free agent? Let's just set aside they are paying for a no-doubt, proven NFL player and not a 24-year-old, small college player with some questions, or where the roster of the Chiefs, who have been to four-straight AFC title games, is compared to the Patriots. Let's just solely look at how the great Patriots teams were built on the interior, and just leave it right here.
2001 — Super Bowl XXVI champions
LG Mike Compton, 3rd round pick of DET in 1993
C Damien Woody, 1st round pick of NE in '99
RG Joe Andruzzi, Undrafted '97, allocated to NFL Europe
2003 — Super Bowl XXXVIII champions
LG Russ Hochstein, 5th round pick of TB in '01
C Dan Koppen, ROOKIE 5th-round pick of NE in '03
RG Joe Andruzzi, Undrafted 1997, allocated to NFL Europe
2004 — Super Bowl XXXIX champions
LG Joe Andruzzi, Undrafted 1997, allocated to NFL Europe
C Dan Koppen, 5th-round pick of NE in '03
RG Stephen Neal, Undrafted 2001 - Did not play in college (wrestling)
2014 — Super Bowl XLIX champions
LG Dan Connolly, Undrafted '05 by JAX
C Bryan Stork, ROOKIE - 4th round pick '14 by NE
RG Ryan Wendell, Undrafted '09 by NE
2016 & 2018 — Super Bowl LI & LIII champions
LG Joe Thuney, ROOKIE - 3rd round pick in '16 by NE
C David Andrews, Undrafted by NE in '15
RG Shaq Mason, 4th round pick by NE in '15
So to recap, for six world championship teams, the Patriots featured interior lines with:
1 first-round pick
2 third-round picks (one by New England)
2 fourth-round picks
2 fifth-round picks
6 Undrafted players
And 3 rookie starters, none drafted higher than the 3rd round
So ... what about ... guards and previous Patriots world title teams?
2. Kyle Van Noy signed with the Chargers and touched on his departure from the Patriots with The Pat McAfee Show.
"I had a feeling (the release would happen), just because of how people were moving behind the scenes there,” Van Noy said. “But the one thing I love about that place is the respect that Bill has for me and the respect that I have for Bill. Being communicative about it. Being honest and up front. Whether I agree with it or not — I just believe in my ability as a football player and everywhere I’ve gone I’ve made a defense better and every time I’ve left they’ve gotten worse, but that’s another story. But I do respect him. I do respect the Patriots organization. I love RKK (Robert Kraft). He’s been wonderful to my family.
“I’ll always be a Patriot. There’s no denying that. But I’m definitely a Charger and I hope to be putting a Charger symbol right up to the Patriots because I want to be remembered as both.”
3. Jerod Mayo seems to be excited for the new guard at Patriots linebacker in his comments on the podcast, Patriots from the Past:
“I think this year, thinking about the guys we have in the room, we have some guys that can rush and cover,” Mayo explained. “And so, I think we have some guys that Pats nation, they haven’t even heard of probably."
On the inside, the Patriots feature Ja'Whaun Bentley, Mack Wilson, Cam McGrone, Raekwon McMillian, Harvey Langhi and Jahlani Tavai (Terez Hall was released this week with a failed physical). On the edge, the Patriots figure to have Matthew Judon, Josh Uche, Ronnie Perkins and Anfernee Jennings. All except Bentley and Judon have barely had any roles so far in New England, for various reasons.
“That is the exciting part: the unknown," Mayo said. "And we’re going to go into it as a unit, we’re gonna go into it together. And, I would say, even right now, not having some of those older guys in the room is beneficial for the younger guys because older guys would be bored out of their minds with some of the things we’re talking about. ... At the same time, it’s forcing young guys to really take that step forward,” Mayo added, “and really grow and develop without being hindered by any other guy’s experience.”
4. It pains me to say this for the Patriots faithful, but I loved what the Bills did in the draft. It could be a case of the rich getting richer.
First, they traded up to 23 and took CB Kaiir Elam (6-1, 191, 4.39)... the player I took in my post-draft Patriots draft. He will be one of the players that figures into the long-term grade on this draft from both teams' perspectives. The Patriots, after JC Jackson left via free agency, passed on Elam and McDuffie and instead signed Malcolm Butler. The Bills, after losing Levi Wallace in free agency and with Tre'Davious White coming off a torn ACL, traded up to take a starting-caliber corner. We'll see how this impacts the AFC East right off the bat, and who was ultimately right in three years.
In the second round, they took Georgia RB James Cook, Dalvin's little brother. JD McKissic is gone, and Devin Singletary has yet to make the Bills' running game (outside of Josh Allen) a real factor. If Cook pops, it makes the Bills even more difficult to stop (if that's possible for New England).
In the third round, the Bills took undersized Baylor LB Terrel Bernard (6-1, 224, 4.59) to help replace backup LB A.J. Klein. The Patriots opted to pass on all the linebackers, but Cam McGrone is in the pipeline.
In the fifth round, the Bills took my mid-round slot WR for the Pats, Boise State's Khalil Shakir (6-0, 196, 4.43) to replace Cole Beasley.
In the sixth round (four picks before the Patriots), the Bills selected P Matt Araiza to boost their special teams. The Patriots signed an undrafted free agent punter and might be looking for cheaper alternatives. The Bills selected "The Punt God" before New England had a chance at him, if it had that in mind.
5. On paper, the Jets also did well, but we'll see.
You could make the case New York drafted the top cornerback (Ahmad Gardner), receiver (Garrett Wilson) and edge rusher (Jermaine Johnson, with a tradeup) in the first round. You could make a case on Gardner and Johnson, but Wilson is a tougher projection for me.
You know Cosell's thoughts on Johnson, here are some on the other two...
"Gardner possesses the length, the athletic traits, and the aggressive mindset and competitiveness to play both mirror-match press man and physical-jam press man, and his sticky man coverage ability was clearly the best part of his game. Gardner was a fun player to watch with his highly competitive approach and his sticky man coverage traits. While there's no question he is best suited to be a press man corner at the next level, Gardner can also play in zone concepts like cover 3 and cover 4 and would be a great fit in cover 2 with his physicality, jamming receivers off the ball. Gardner is the alpha dog corner in the 2022 Draft class and will likely start in the NFL from day 1."
"Wilson possesses higher-level receiving traits as you project and transition him to the NFL, and he presents as a three-level dimension as a route runner who also has strong run-after-catch ability that makes him a dangerous weapon on tunnel screens and jet sweeps. ... Keep in mind when Stefon Diggs came out of Maryland, few saw him as a #1 receiver in the NFL and he has clearly become that in the Bills' system. Wilson possesses some similarities to Diggs, and it would not surprise me if he became the #1 target for a diverse passing team."
Jets also made Breece Hall the top back taken, TE Jeremy Ruckert to block initially, a developmental OT in Max Mitchell and DE Michael Clemons in the fourth round.
My big question: Have the Jets done enough on the line to protect Zach Wilson and set him up for success? That's the key to everything.