After months, if not years, worth of work, Bill Belichick, Matt Groh and the Patriots made their selections in the 2022 NFL Draft:
1-29: G/C Cole Strange, Chattanooga (TRADE DOWN - gained 3-94, traded to Panthers; 4-121)
2-50: WR Tyquan Thornton, Baylor (TRADE UP - also used 5-158)
3-85: CB Marcus Jones, Houston
4-121: CB Jack Jones, Arizona State (gained pick)
4-127: RB Pierre Strong, South Dakota State
4-137: QB Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky (gained pick)
6-183: RB Kevin Harris, South Carolina
6-200: DL Sam Roberts, NW Missouri State
6-201: OG Chasen Hines, LSU
7-245: OT Andrew Stueber, Michigan
- Also have Carolina 2023 3rd-round pick
We'll see in three years how they did. They certainly put in the work and deserve to see their work through.
I had the Patriots going offensive line, receiver and cornerback with their first three picks — which they ended up doing. Just had much different players, some of whom were picked earlier. Trevor Penning went two spots earlier than New England's original 21st spot. John Metchie went 10 spots earlier, and CB Marcus Jones was on my considered list for the third round. I went with another CB, Jalyn Armour-Davis from Alabama. QB Bailey Zappe was on my considered list for Round 5.
The Patriots certainly picked some good players. I feel best about Cole Strange, Marcus Jones and Pierre Strong being good NFL players for years to come. After doubling back on NFL sources, I think Tyquan Thornton and Jack Jones are the biggest risks. Thornton, in particular, could be the biggest swing pick in this draft class. Not only did the Patriots take him earlier than most teams would have, they traded up to select him.
You can say, "Well, it doesn't really matter where they picked the player, as long as they get good players." That is true to an extent. But the draft is one big game, and value is part of that game. Anyone can pick their seven best players and be done with it. Taking that another step, trading down or up and manipulating the draft to maximize your value, is part of the art of drafting and getting value for your team. It's been part of why Belichick has been so good at the draft in the past.
You also can't celebrate Belichick for gaining the slightest of advantages for his team — let alone praise him for getting first-round talent later in a draft (Christian Barmore, for example) in previous years — and then choose now to say value does not matter. It all matters.
This was part of the risk in going from very experienced in all facets of personnel — from Scott Pioli to Nick Caserio to Dave Ziegler — to a relatively inexperienced Matt Groh at personnel director, instead of an Eliot Wolf or someone from the outside. Guys with a lot of experience, deep connections, and relationships around the league — this was a big strength for Ziegler — often have better sources and are better at figuring out where teams value draft prospects, and they set their board accordingly. Did Groh do as good a job as his predecessors in this regard? Did he heavily rely on Wolf and all his connections from previous jobs (Packers, Browns, Seahawks, etc), or did he do the job by himself, wanting to justify his promotion in Belichick's eyes? We don't know the answers to those questions yet, but personnel executives around the league, including some with New England ties, are asking those same questions after seeing New England's final draft board.
The proof, as they say, will be in the pudding a few years from now.
Let's add to the pile of second-guessing. After a mere week or two of work on these prospects and not much intelligence available on their intangibles, here are the moves we would have made, had we been in control of the Patriots' draft board.
Would we have taken the trade on the first pick?
FIRST ROUND, 21ST OVERALL
My draft picks to start the night: 1-21, 2-54, 3-85, 4-127, 5-158, 6-183, 6-200, 6-210, 7-245
The Patriots are on the clock. We know they had an offer from the Chiefs of 29, 94 and 121.
Players on the board at 21: CB Trent McDuffie, LB Quay Walker, CB Kaiir Elam, OT Tyler Smith, Edge Jermaine Johnson, LB Devin Lloyd, G/C Cole Strange.
The debate: The Chiefs' offer is certainly tempting. The discussion is do we have players on the board that can contribute immediately, or do we want to have more darts to throw at the board? To me, the debate comes down to Lloyd and Elam — both have upside as immediate starters. McDuffie is safe but low ceiling. Walker and Smith have huge upsides with risk. Johnson doesn't really fit my scheme. I'm not taking a guard in the first round. Maybe round two.
This is a very tough call. Patriots have sort of painted themselves into a corner at LB because they signed Ja'Whaun Bentley to an extension, acquired Mack Wilson in a trade and have Cam McGrone coming back. If they'd didn't re-sign Bentley, this pick is a layup, it's Lloyd. I don't love the cornerbacks available here, but I'm pretty desperate for one. Elam has really good traits.
THE PICK: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida.
I'm sticking and picking. I really want Lloyd but my previous roster decisions have pushed me off that.
SECOND ROUND, 54TH OVERALL
I'm pretty confident that Strange would have been on the board here. That could be wrong, but another didn't go until 57 (Goedeke to Bucs).
Players on the board: WR Skyy Moore, OL Luke Godeke, C/G Cole Strange, Edge Nick Bonitto, LB Chad Muma, OT Abraham Lucas, LB Christian Harris, DT Travis Jones, OT Bernham Raimann.
The debate: If you're the Patriots, you take Strange here. To me, in the middle of a WR run, the debate is between Moore and Jones. I think I can get a receiver later. I'm helping my run defense.
THE PICK: Travis Jones, NT, UConn.
I'm getting my future nose tackle, if not immediate starter over Davon Godchaux. This guy kicked the stuffing out of everyone at the Senior Bowl, including Cole Strange. I need to be more stout in the middle.
THIRD ROUND, 85TH OVERALL
Players on the board: CB Marcus Jones, WR Jalen Tolbert, OG Sean Rhyan, LB Channing Tindall, LB Leo Chenal, WR Danny Grey.
The debate: I'm not loving what's on the board here, and I like what the Patriots are thinking with Jones.
THE PICK: Marcus Jones, CB, Houston.
I now have my future/immediate outside and inside cornerbacks. I'm pretty happy with that.
FOURTH ROUND, 127TH OVERALL
Players on the board: RB Pierre Strong, P Jordan Stout, WR Romeo Doubs, QB Bailey Zappe, WR Calvin Austin, WR Khalil Shakir, CB Tariq Woolen.
The debate: I like what the Patriots did here by picking Strong, but I'm heavily debating the receivers. I've wanted a slot guy for Mac Jones for a while. I already traded for DeVante Parker.
THE PICK: Khalil Shakir, WR, Boise State.
I just think he perfectly fits what the Patriots do on offense and he gives the Patriots something they don't have — anything at the slot.
FIFTH ROUND, 158TH OVERALL
Players on the board: NT Otitio Ogbonnia, LB D'Marco Jackson, RB Kyren Williams, Edge Kinglsey Engbare, QB Bailey Zappe, RB Kevin Harris.
The debate: I'm projecting Zappe to still be available here (Sam Howell went 144). I'm considering that. I wanted a QB with two in-contract years on the roster. But I'm also looking for leverage on Damien Harris, and James White is questionable in a comeback from a hip injury.
THE PICK: Bailey Zappe, QB, Western Kentucky.
I really considered Williams because he looks a lot like White, but his top-end speed isn't good enough (White was faster coming out). I'm going with my future backup QB.
Amare Barno
SIXTH ROUND
183RD OVERALL
Players on the board: RB Kevin Harris, OT Vederian Lowe, OT Zach Thomas, LB Amare Barno, OG Jamaree Salyer, RB Tyler Badie.
The debate: Patriots picked Harris here, which I'm fine with. The linemen are tempting, as is Barno as a project at linebacker. The guy absolutely flies.
THE PICK: Amare Barno, LB, Virginia Tech
This guy is 6-5, 246 pounds and runs a 4.36. I'm taking a leap that I can turn this guy into a starter within three years. He can at least play special teams. Immediately ups the athleticism at linebacker.
200TH OVERALL
Players on the board: DL Sam Roberts, FB Connor Heyward, OG Chasen Hines, OT Luke Tenuta
The debate: Patriots took Sam Roberts here as a defensive lineman. Not a big issue. But I like plugging a hole at guard.
THE PICK: Chasen Hines, OG, LSU.
He's got a chance to start right away at LG, so the Patriots' guess is as good as mine.
210TH OVERALL
Players on the board: TE John FitzPatrick, DE Isaiah Thomas, ILB Tariq Carpenter, WR Bo Melton.
The debate: Patriots went with Hines here, so Roberts would be an option. I'm more intrigued by a Power 5 player.
THE PICK: Isaiah Thomas, DE, Oklahoma
He's 6-5, 266 pounds — so he gives me another option on the edge than Josh Uche and Ronnie Perkins, and he's a little longer. Has some upside.
SEVENTH ROUND, 245TH
Players on the board: OT Andrew Stueber (Patriots pick), RB Isiah Pacheco, OT Rasheed Walker.
The debate: Do I want to take a chance at tackle, or possibly RB? I've seen Pacheco a lot and he has playmaker potential.
THE PICK: Isiah Pacheco, RB, Rutgers.
_________________
So in the end, this is my draft class (no trades):
1-21: Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
2-54: Travis Jones, NT, UConn
3-85: Marcus Jones, CB, Houston
4-127: Khalil Shakir, WR, Boise State
5-158: Bailey Zappe, QB, Western Kentucky
6-183: Amare Barno, LB, Virginia Tech
6-200: Chasen Hines, OG, LSU
6-210: Isaiah Thomas, DE, Oklahoma
7-245: Isiah Pacheco, RB, Rutgers
Patriots' picks and trades:
1-29: G/C Cole Strange, Chattanooga
2-50: WR Tyquan Thornton, Baylor
3-85: CB Marcus Jones, Houston
4-121: CB Jack Jones, Arizona State (gained pick)
4-127: RB Pierre Strong, South Dakota State
4-137: QB Bailey Zappe, Western Kentucky (gained pick)
6-183: RB Kevin Harris, South Carolina
6-200: DL Sam Roberts, NW Missouri State
6-201: OG Chasen Hines, LSU
7-245: OT Andrew Stueber, Michigan
- Also have Carolina 2023 3rd-round pick
Which one ya got?!