ROUND TWO
(2) Boston Celtics vs. (3) Milwaukee Bucks
SCHEDULE
Game 1: Sunday, 5/1, 1:00 PM (ABC)
Game 2: Tuesday, 5/3, 7:00 PM (TNT)
Game 3: Saturday, 5/7, 3:30 PM (ABC)
Game 4: Monday, 5/9, 7:30 PM (TNT)
Game 5*: Wednesday, 5/11, TBD (TNT)
Game 6*: Friday, 5/13, TBD (ESPN)
Game 7*: Sunday, 5/15, TBD (TBD)
* If Necessary
TEAM RANKS (regular season)
Boston:
Offense: 9th (113.6)
Defense: 1st (106.2)
Since the All-Star Break:
Offense: 1st (122.6)
Defense: 3rd (109.9)
Milwaukee:
Offense: 3rd (114.3)
Defense: 14th (111.1)
Since the All-Star break:
Offense: 4th (119.1)
Defense: 20th (115.8)
THE BIG STORYLINES
The Celtics roll into the second round after a defensive gem of a series against Brooklyn. Their ability to keep Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving off-kilter signaled that their top-rated defense was well-earned. Jayson Tatum had one of the better two-way series that we’ve seen outside of Kawhi Leonard in a long time, making it possible that he could be the best player in a series. Ime Udoka’s coaching acumen was also on full display, which convinced many skeptics that Boston was, indeed, a serious playoff contender. There is a question about Jaylen Brown’s health, as his right hamstring has been acting up, but he and the team swear he’ll be ready.
The Milwaukee Bucks easily dismissed the Chicago Bulls in five games, behind 28.6 points, 13.4 rebounds, and 6.2 assists per game from Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Greek Freak lived up to his nickname, helping Milwaukee compensate for the loss of Khris Middleton to a sprained MCL in his left knee. He’s expected to miss the second round series, but Milwaukee recovered by getting great shooting performances from Grayson Allen and Pat Connaughton, among others...
THE BIG PLAYERS
Boston: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, Marcus Smart
Tatum had an MVP first round and is currently third in playoff scoring per game (29.5) and fifth in playoff assists per game (7.3).
The assists are a big deal for the Celtics. If Tatum can fill it up and score nearly 30 points while also dropping that many dimes, the Celtic will be hard to beat. Nevermind the defense he played on Durant that made one of Tatum’s best all-around performances.
Brown’s hamstring is a concern, but if it holds up, he can have a spectacular series. There will be a lot of attention paid to Tatum and plenty of opportunities for Brown to swing games by attacking or getting catch-and-shoot 3-point opportunities. Milwaukee’s entire defensive strategy is about taking the paint away, so Tatum collapsing the defense and kicking out will lead to open shots, but driving a second time on those kicks could open up seams for some guys to get some cleaner looks. Brown as one of those drivers and passers could create some good scoring chances.
Robert Williams being healthy and back to his normal self will be critical in this series. His skillset is much-needed on both ends of the floor as both a defensive eraser and offensive vertical spacer as a lob threat. He will either draw a lot of attention as a roller on offense, or he’ll make Milwaukee wish they had by finishing alley oops.
Smart has been a wonderful table-setter during this Celtics run, but his shooting will be put to the test. Smart shot 32 3-pointers in the first round, most on the team. But he made 10, good for 31.3% shooting. Milwaukee will undoubtedly give him that same space and live with the results. Smart has to be a bit more judicious with the long-range shot and be more willing to drive it early in the shot clock in order to keep collapsing and expanding the defense. Smart has a chance to live at the line in this series.
Milwaukee: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez
What more is there to say about Antetokounmpo? He’s an MVP finalist because he’s virtually unstoppable on offense and a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. The Celtics can go out in this series and do everything right and Giannis can just tear them to shreds anyway. He’s that good.
I can cut and paste a lot of the Smart analysis into this Holiday paragraph because Holiday will be called on to do much of the same, especially with Middleton out. Holiday took the second-most 3-pointers in Milwaukee’s first-round series, and he shot 34.5% (Smart was 10-32, Holiday was 10-29). Holiday will have to shoulder a lot more of the offensive load, which can be a problem for the Bucks sometimes. Holiday is fully capable, but not always able, to be a big scorer.
Lopez’s return is a major help for the Bucks. Their entire defense was built around Lopez protecting the rim and Antetokounmpo roaming and helping. Lopez’s drop coverage keeps the paint generally free from unwanted guests, so the Celtics will have to find ways to shake him loose if they want to score in the restricted area.
THE BIT PLAYERS
Boston: Grant Williams, Derrick White, Al Horford
All three of these guys will need to hit 3-pointers, which is going to make things interesting for White. Six Celtics took 11 or more 3-pointers in the opening round. White was by far the worst of those shooters, hitting 1-11 against Brooklyn. Williams and Horford were a combined 17-31, so they get a major thumbs up for that, but White, despite all his other positives, is going to have to hit a few more.
Williams and Horford will each get their turns on Antetokounmpo in Boston’s switching defense, so each will have to work very hard on both ends of the floor for Boston to win this series.
Milwaukee: Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen, Wesley Matthews
This is all about shooting for Milwaukee. The formula without Middleton is make everything flow through Giannis, use his intense gravity to open up room for shooters, and have these three guys bury Boston. I’m looking at Matthews, especially, as a guy Boston will dare to beat them. He was hot against Chicago, but his regular season shooting numbers suggest that was an aberration.
All three will be targeted by Boston defensively, so they will have to hit shots to make up for giving up points on the other end.
THE WILD CARDS
Boston: Aaron Nesmith?
I’m looking at a taller shooter to make an impact in this series. I’m picking Nesmith because he has the right combination of size, defensive ability, and offensive potential, but I do recognize that the potential has been unrealized so far. They could still roll with Payton Pritchard in this series, and I'm sure Udoka will float the test balloon in certain lineups to see if he can hang, but I’m really concerned with Milwaukee’s size. Pritchard will be targeted immediately, and if he can’t hang, he’ll get yanked in a heartbeat.
This adds a little more pressure on White to perform, and maybe he’ll simply be more of a backup point guard to alleviate some of these issues, but I’m rolling the dice here and saying Nesmith might get one opportunity to make a difference simply because of his size.
Milwaukee: Bobby Portis
Portis has the potential to be a difference-maker in this series, or get played clean off the floor. If Milwaukee starts their usual non-Middleton group of Holiday, Matthews, Antetokounmpo, Portis, and Lopez, that could hand the Celtics a mismatch to exploit. Assuming the matchups start out as Holiday-Smart, Matthews-Brown, Antetokounmpo-Tatum, then Portis is either going to have to guard Horford or Robert Williams with Lopez taking the other. I’ll Horford operating in the post against Portis or Williams in pick and rolls with Horford spaced in the corner to pull Lopez away from the hoop.
THE STRATEGY
Boston offense: Let’s start with pick-and-rolls with Robert Williams and go from there, because Milwaukee’s drop coverage with Lopez will have to really drop to account for Williams and that will just open up a lot of runway for someone like Tatum to make a run at the rim. I want to see how Milwaukee handles that, because I have a feeling we can see a few lobs early.
From there, the Celtics can generate a lot of 3-pointers off their drives. I would be watching for a lot of weak-side picks to take advantage of Milwaukee’s defense collapsing on drives. They are hellbent on protecting the paint. Boston has the players to get in there anyway and spray the ball out to the perimeter. Milwaukee might be fine with letting the Celtics shooters try to beat them considering a few of them haven't been the most reliable. Grant Williams could have a huge series living in the corners.
Boston’s defense: They will do their best to build a wall against Antetokounmpo, but do it in a manner that doesn’t let the Bucks shooters get loose. Boston will switch a lot, and some of it might be to purposely bait Antetokounmpo into playing out of the post.
The Celtics will live with every post up they get from Giannis because that means he’s not barrelling down the middle of the floor and wreaking havoc. If he hits a few fadeaways, then so be it. In the meantime, Boston will be trying their best to force him into a signature spin move so they can try to time it and either draw a charge or get a steal.
Milwaukee offense: Their entire world revolves around springing Antetokounmpo free, so they’ll try every trick in the book to make that happen. They can start him off the ball and try to work him through multiple screens to see if they can get Boston to mess up a switch and give him a sliver of daylight to break to the rim. They’ll also use him as a pick-and-roll screener with Holiday, hoping he can catch the Celtics sleeping and slip the screen, or have Boston go under out of fear of Giannis attacking the rim, thus leaving Holiday wide open for warm up-difficulty 3-pointers to get him going.
Milwaukee defense: They want to get out in transition, so they're hoping to create turnovers or missed shots so they can run. A lot of their transition is predicated on stops at the rim that ultimately lead to 2-on-1’s and 3-on-2’s -- you know, the ones where Giannis catches the ball just over half court, takes one dribble, and somehow is dunking it a second later.
Boston’s offense will have to hum like a freshly tuned-up engine to get past the layers of Milwaukee defense in the paint. The Bucks simply will not allow you to score close to the basket without working extraordinarily hard for it. Teams often settle for the 3-pointers Milwaukee wants them to take because they fall under the guise of “good shots” while being the lowest-effort shots available.
THE PREDICTION
There's just no overlooking how big the loss of Middleton is for the Bucks. More than half of his baskets are unassisted, which means he’s one of Milwaukee’s best shot-creators. He alone can go on 11-0 runs just by pulling up for transition 3-pointers and attacking closeouts. He can also find the open man, which means the Bucks lose one of their better facilitators as well.
Oh, and he’s a good defender, so they have one less long wing to throw at Tatum and Brown.
The return of Robert Williams is the clincher for me. Boston’s defense is just too good with him roaming, and by the time Antetokounmpo navigates all the switches, he still needs to get by Williams (and Horford) at the rim. I’m not saying the Celtics are going to do to Giannis what they did to Durant, but what I think they can do is keep Antetokounmpo from going full Greek God for the whole series.
He’ll do it in a game or two. But the Celtics have too many bodies playing too well together right now to let him just do whatever he wants for a full seven games. They will force him into a few too many jumpers. They will make him feel his runs to the basket and earn those points at the line.
Williams will also be a problem for Milwaukee’s defense. I think the threat of Williams rolling to the rim will be problematic for Lopez, and it will create some paint opportunities not typically there for most teams.
Let’s not forget that not only does Boston have Udoka, who handled Brooklyn’s defensive game plan against the Milwaukee Bucks last playoffs, they also have former Bucks assistant Ben Sullivan on the staff.
“Obviously similar to me with Brooklyn last year, you know the nuances of what they're trying to get done and some of the verbiage language and how they're different,” Udoka said. “Ben's been a valuable source already.”
We’ve seen what Udoka can do with a little inside information.
I think Tatum will rise to the defensive challenge and slow the first wave of Antetokounmpo’s attack. He’s big and strong enough to slide and turn Giannis enough times during the game to slow him down just a touch. The defense behind him can wall him off some more, and by then the shot clock will be winding down. I like where Boston’s defense can go from there.
If Tatum and Brown can drive and kick enough, they can wear out the Bucks defense. I think Boston has the weapons to get this done.
It won’t be nearly as easy as the Brooklyn series. I can see Milwaukee getting a split in Boston, but I can also see Boston getting a split in Milwaukee. From there, it’s all Boston.
Celtics in six.
