If you were to sum up the Patriots' 2022 offseason in one word, it would be, to be kind, unconventional.
After a season in which the Patriots lost four of their final five games (including two embarrassing defeats at the hands of the Buffalo Bills) to run their record to 17-17 since Tom Brady left town (19-21 in their last 40 games) — and zero playoff wins in three years — the Patriots have inched along this offseason.
They have faced departures from the front office to the coaching staff to veteran players and countered by largely promoting from within with people and players who are projects. Experienced reinforcements have not been brought in. The Patriots' offseason has consisted of Bill Belichick saying, basically, "Me, my people and players have this. We don't need any help."
Belichick could very well be right — he's spent nearly all of the last 22 years being correct on just about everything.
But Belichick could also be very wrong. Starting with his decision on Brady (and the drafts before that), Belichick's moves have been spotty. Certainly the top of last year's draft looks good, but there's a reason why the Patriots were wiped off the field twice by the Bills at the end of the season, which added to disappointing finishes each of the last three seasons and left them as AFC afterthoughts entering this season (BetOnline.ag has New England's odds third in the AFC East and 12th in the AFC, ahead of only the Steelers, Jaguars, Jets and Texans).
Belichick could have done more this offseason to supplement his roster by pushing some cap into future years — the Bills had no issues signing DE Von Miller; the Dolphins traded for Tyreek Hill, and signed Terron Armstead and Cedrick Wilson — but decided against it. His most notable acquisition was receiver DeVante Parker, who was replaced, unwanted and happily traded to the Patriots by a division rival. Piggyback that with a draft that was unconventional at best, and the Patriots seem to be at a precipice.
Is Belichick, now 70, still at the top of his game and about to finish in a blaze of brilliant glory? Or have the previous 2.5 years been the start of a slide that will signal the end of his tenure in New England and keep the Patriots entrenched in mediocrity?
We'll have to watch and see, there have been several key decisions in the past two years that will tell the tale of Belichick's final dose of brilliance, or his slow decline like so many other great and aging coaches:
• The decision not to give Brady the contract or partnership he desired.
All he's done is win a Super Bowl and finish second in MVP balloting in two years for the Bucs. Belichick, who made no attempt to identify an heir apparent after trading away Jimmy Garoppolo for pennies on the dollar in a rushed deadline move, decided to wing it at quarterback by signing Cam Newton, the last remaining and cheap free agent. That was a disaster. Mac Jones looks like a keeper, but the Patriots spent two needless years in the weeds at the position. That should change this year, with Jones in his second season, but ...
• Belichick is taking a leap of faith with his coaches, front office.
Josh McDaniels, after being one of the best offensive coordinators and QB developers for the last decade, finally took a head coaching job in Las Vegas and took with him the Patriots' offensive line and receivers coaches. It appears that veteran RB coach Ivan Fears may be retiring, joining Dante Scarnecchia on the sidelines in a continued brain drain. Instead of bringing in a proven NFL offensive coordinator like Bill O'Brien or Adam Gase, Belichick has apparently decided that former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia (offensive line, run game coordinator) and special teams coordinator Joe Judge (pass game coordinator) are going to run the show on offense, with young tight ends coach Nick Caley figuring prominently. If Judge's one year as Patriots receivers coach and his Giants head coaching stint are any indication, there could be a steep learning curve, and Patricia hasn't coached on offense since 2005. Belichick obviously has a lot of confidence in Patricia and Judge, two good coaches in their careers, but this is certainly a big risk — more than most NFL teams would take on, especially in regards to Jones' development.
You can also add in Dave Ziegler's departure for Vegas after one year — a very productive offseason last year in free agency and the draft — and Belichick's decision to tab Matt Groh, who is three years removed from being an area scout and has no full-time pro personnel experience, as Ziegler's successor. Belichick could have gone with more experience internally (Eliot Wolf) or externally, but again chose not to do so.
(Adam Richins for BSJ) • Mismanagement of assets.
For years, Belichick was always a step ahead of the league and his own roster; the master of being one year early rather than one year too late. That has evaporated. Starting with the Garoppolo trade, Belichick has let assets go out the door with not much in return:
- Garoppolo for second-round pick without shopping him, or tagging and trading after the season;
- The greatest QB of all-time left and the Patriots received only dead cap and a comp pick in return.
- Tagging Joe Thuney cost the Patriots $15 million and a third-round comp pick — they got zero compensation.
- Stephon Gilmore traded a year too late for a sixth-round pick after the Patriots advanced his salary.
- Shaq Mason was traded for a fifth-round pick that the Patriots turned into drafted RB Kevin Harris (the 2nd RB they drafted) and OT Andrew Stueber. Patriots felt the need to use their first-round pick this year (Cole Strange) to replace Mason.
- J.C. Jackson was not tagged, and he signed a top 10 contract. Patriots will receive a third-round comp pick next year in return. Patriots signed Malcolm Butler, who did not play last season, to replace Jackson.
• After setting a record for money spent on free agents in the 2021 offseason, the Patriots sat out '22 free agency.
After the start of the league year, the Patriots' moves have consisted of trading Chase Winovich for Brown LB Mack Wilson, signing Giants S Jabrill Peppers (coming off ACL), and journeymen in WR/RB Ty Montgomery and Texans CB Terrance Mitchell. The Patriots have bid goodbye too, at least for now, Dont'a Hightower, Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins (all are unsigned), and Ted Karras (Bengals), Mason (Bucs), Jackson (Chargers), Gunner Olszewski (Steelers).
That's a lot going out, and not much coming back in. The Patriots are obviously banking on some internal improvement by their 2021 free agents, and the ascension of youngsters like Cam McGrone, Kyle Dugger, Shaun Wade, Mike Onwenu, Josh Uche and Ronnie Perkins.
Again, the Patriots betting on themselves.
• A curious draft.
Certainly fine, especially one year after adding a lot of pieces, to sit out free agency, and perhaps look to the draft for more impact. At first blush, the Patriots' draft appears puzzling. Most observers of the Patriots would say that they could use immediate help at boundary cornerback, receiver, nose tackle, offensive tackle and linebacker. Obviously things can and will change, but it doesn't appear they got immediate contributors at any of those spots.
- Sitting at 21 in the first round, the Patriots passed on drafting CB Trent McDuffie (Chiefs took him in NE's spot), LB Quay Walker, CB Kaiir Elam (Bills) and LB Devin Lloyd — experienced (for the college level) and talented players who are proven on the biggest college stages. The Patriots traded down to 29 and selected Chattanooga guard/center Cole Strange, who was projected to go much later, at a position with dubious value considering New England's previous championship teams. At 29, the Patriots passed on drafting CBs Daxton Hill (Bengals), Roger McCreary (Titans), Kyler Gordon (Bears) and Andrew Booth (Vikings) — all players from big schools.
By the way, another guard was not selected for 28 picks at No. 57.
(Getty Images) Bailey Zappe
- In the second round, the Patriots stood pat while Nick Caserio and the Texans traded up for Alabama WR John Metchie. At 50, the Patriots took Baylor WR Tyquan Thornton, who was not invited to the Senior Bowl and was the highest-drafted Shrine Bowl player in a decade. Thornton was also thought to be overdrafted, but there's no question he brings immense speed (4.28) and will have the chance to make an impact. His fate could very well determine how good this draft class ultimately is. The Patriots passed on WRs George Pickens (52, Steelers), Alex Pierce (53, Bengals) and Skyy Moore (54, Western Michigan). They'll all be judged against each other.
- In the third round at 85, the Patriots selected Houston slot CB/KR Marcus Jones. Despite him being 5-8 and a future slot CB, few would quibble with this pick. LBs Channing Tindall (102, Dolphins) and Leo Chenal (103, Chiefs) were alternatives at another spot.
- In the fourth round at 121, two picks after the Ravens selected Alabama CB Jalyn Armour-Davis, the Patriots took Arizona State CB Jack Jones, who has man skills but had a series of off-field incidents that likely would have made him available a little later.
At 127, right after Dave Ziegler and the Raiders traded up to select NT Neil Farrell, the Patriots picked RB Pierre Strong to go along with Damien Harris (contract year) and Rhamondre Stevenson. The Patriots likely needed a running back at some point. Few thought the Patriots would make another RB pick later. Strong continued New England's emphasis on improving their team speed.
At 137, the Patriots took QB Bailey Zappe. They passed on slot WRs Calvin Austin (138, Steelers) and Khalil Shakir (148, Bills). OG Zach Tom (141, Ravens) and CB Tariq Woolen (153, Seahawks). With Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham each in contract years, a future backup QB was not out of the question. But there was still talent on the board.
We'll see how all of the players picked by the Patriots will develop, and there's a reason why the Patriots chose them for this team. But there's little question that their picks outside Jones were at the very least unconventional. Not one Alabama or Georgia player taken. That's just the second time that's happened since 2015, and that was the '17 class that only produced Deatrich Wise.
Last year, with Ziegler running the show, all but one of their eight selections came from a Power 5 conference — and the first five picks were from Alabama, Alabama, Oklahoma, Oklahoma and Michigan. Interestingly, Ziegler's first Raiders draft featured picks from Georgia, LSU, Tennessee, Ohio State and UCLA — Memphis was the one Power 5 outlier.
This year, the Patriots selected players from Chattanooga, South Dakota State, Western Kentucky and NW Missouri State. There was one Michigan player taken (OT Andrew Stueber) with their final selection.
The Patriots seemed to go a different route in this draft. We'll have to see how it plays out to figure out why. Meanwhile, Patriots fans watched the Bills, Jets, Chiefs and Ravens seemingly have great drafts, which leads to a more uncertain feeling about where New England is going.
It's fair to ask the following questions now that the 2022 offseason has largely concluded:
- Is the Patriots' front office better than it was a year ago?
- Is the coaching staff better than it was a year ago?
- Is the team itself, from a talent perspective, better than it was a year ago?
I asked Groh on Sunday night the latter question.
"Yeah, that is a complicated question," he said. "And that's a question, once we put together the team and can actually see the team together ... and we're still putting the team together. We're still working through college free agents. We've been able to add some good, undrafted college free agents here through the years.
"So to take the easy way out, that answer is yet to reveal itself. So we'll keep working, we're going to continue to try and find ways to make this team better, so I think it would be very early to compare this team that is a work in progress to, you know, last year's team that played 17 regular-season games and was fortunate enough and earned their way into the playoffs."
I did try again. I mean, in football you're either getting better or you're getting worse ... and shouldn't the Patriots be able to declare themselves a better team? Groh and Belichick sit there with their depth chart all offseason, go into the draft trying to shore things up. Most teams I've covered in the past often say after the draft, "We're a better team today than we were three days ago."
"Yeah, we ... I heard a lot of things about where we were last year as a team" Groh said. "You know, we try and ignore the noise around here. I'm sure you guys have seen the sign. It's just the team is still such a work in progress right now, that it is really difficult. We've had some needs, we've tried to try to address those needs. We've tried to get better, but I mean, there's not a person who's answering these questions for any team around the league that's not saying the same thing. So I appreciate the question. It's just it's a little difficult to answer right now."
I respect the answer. The truth is, those answers will be revealed in time by the end of this season. And then we'll know, with more certainty, the direction of this franchise and Belichick's future.
After this interesting offseason, concluding with this unique draft, anything is possible as the team stares into the abyss.