NFL Notebook: While age has not been kind to NFL coaching legends, it could be different for Belichick

Unless you live under a rock, you know that Bill Belichick turned 70 on Saturday. 

If only we could all be like Belichick. On to 71, coming off a winning season, millions in the bank, his kids close, compound on Nantucket and, hell, the guy looks and carries himself like a person much younger. It's good to be the king. God Save The Hoodie.

There is, however, another side to this. It's an absolute fact that age is not kind to NFL coaching greats. Outside of George Halas winning an NFL title at 68 in 1963, the oldest coach to win a Super Bowl title was Bruce Arians at 70. But, let's face it, that comes with a huge — and very interesting — No. 12 asterisk in the form of Tom Brady. The quarterback Belichick decided was too old to invest in made his new coach the record holder for oldest coach to win an NFL title.

Now Belichick is trying to defy his age and history. 

Don Shula, Tom Landry, Chuck Noll, Bill Parcells, Joe Gibbs and Marv Levy are Belichick's contemporaries when it comes to recent great NFL coaches. All of them are awaiting Belichick's arrival in Canton ... whenever that may be.

They combined to win 63 percent of their regular-season games in their prime, another 64 percent in postseason, and teamed up for 26 conference titles and 10 Lombardi trophies

But success, even for the greats, was hard to come by in their twilight years. In their final four to seven years, they combined to win just 51 percent of the time in the regular season, 26.6 percent in the playoffs, and did not win one conference title.

As Belichick enters his twilight — and you could make the argument he's three years into it — you have to wonder if he can buck history.

It's amazing and quite fitting that we are having this conversation. Belichick himself deemed Brady to be on a year-to-year basis after beating the Falcons in 2016 because the quarterback would be 40 the upcoming season. All Brady did was nearly beat the Eagles for another title the following year (some defense would have been nice), and then he helped defeat the Rams at age 41. Yet Belichick still left Brady little choice but to leave. Why? Because Brady was trying to do something that was unheard of — playing into his mid-40s at a high level at quarterback.

Belichick bet against that, and lost. Yet here we are, with Belichick betting he can do what no other legendary coach has ever done — win at a high level after the age of 65. 

There are certainly reasons to be pessimistic that Belichick can pull this off, highlighted by his current dip in production (68 percent regular-season wins to 59 percent, and zero playoff victories the last three years), and personnel/coaching decisions. But let's do what we did with Brady in his final years. Let's give three reasons why Belichick could make history all over again:

1. Like Brady, Belichick is just different and better than anyone else ... ever.

New England was blessed to have the holiest of football unions for 20 unbelievable years, but it ended poorly, just like TB12 and his father predicted years earlier. Still, many of us understood why Belichick did what he did (although a five-year extension after 2016 would have solved a lot of issues) because what Brady was trying to do, to play at a high level past 40 and in a different locale, would have fit nicely on Ripley's Believe It Or Not. 

Not only did that son of gun get it done in 2020 at age 43 as Belichick floundered with Cam Newton (did that really happen ... I blacked out), but he was second in MVP balloting last year at 44. What Brady has done for the last five years is just completely unfathomable. But, those of us who watched him over the years knew it was possible with TB12. Why? Because there has never been a competitor and winner like Brady in the sport ever.

Why can't we say the same thing about Belichick? If Brady can do the unthinkable, and make it look easy, then we could easily see Belichick doing similar.

2. Mac Jones is the perfect guy for Dynasty 3.0.

He may not have the strongest arm or quickest feet, and he may be a little goofy ... but so was that kid from San Mateo. Jones has many of the same traits Brady did to lift up an anonymous group of teammates in 2001 and beyond — great leadership, quick mind, uncommon accuracy, an overall unselfishness. Jones isn't an uber talent, so he fits in better with Belichick's system than most and is the perfect point person for it.

Of course, we don't yet know if Jones has the intangibles that made Brady even a baby GOAT. Kind of a big piece of this ...

3. Like Brady, Belichick is still miles ahead of his opposition.

Brady has stayed this good for so long because he had the answers to the test years ago — there wasn't anything he hadn't seen or experienced, so he always had a leg up on the defense and defensive coaches.

Obviously 2021 wasn't the poster child for Belichick being on top of his game as far as decision-making and all-around coaching prowess, but there were a lot of new things around these Patriots last season. Maybe, just maybe, the newness of the offensive pieces (and the stale oldness of the defense), wouldn't allow the team to reach a second gear — and this season could be different. Last year was just the foundation.

I don't care how badly the Bills beat the Patriots the last two matchups last year, I'm still taking Belichick over Sean McDermott if the talent is in the same ballpark — to say nothing of Robert Saleh and Mike McDaniel. The only coach I fear in the AFC is Mike Vrabel. As for the reigning king of the NFC, Sean McVay, Belichick coached his doors off four years ago, and he'll do it again ... provided the talent, again, is somewhat close (kind of a big deal and very debatable). 

________________________

Look, do I have some very real concerns that Belichick is already in the midst of his decline to the end? Heck yeah, I do. The way they have finished three straight years ... it's the complete opposite of every other Belichick team. There's still a serious lack of good young players on this team as Belichick clings to veterans — usually a telltale sign a coach is gripping the wheel too tight. Some of Belichick's conservative decisions last year were mindboggling and led to losses. And then there are the decisions with his coaching staff, which have basically no precedence in working anywhere. 

But I have to remind myself that, as a realist, I had similar concerns about Brady at the end, including the fact that he wasn't all that great in 2018 (defense and running game got them in position for Brady to work his magic) or 2019. And, Brady, once again, proved himself the GOAT.

And then I ask myself, "Why not Bill?"

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. What is the deal with the Matt Patricia praise? It was one thing for Belichick to throw multiple bouquets at his sidekick at the league meetings, but director of player personnel Matt Groh piling on this week? It's too much.

Groh on his lack of pro personnel experience: "Obviously we've got no better resource than Coach Belichick and what Matt Patricia's able to add through all his experiences with everything on the pro side. I just try and soak that in and put it all together and help the team make the best decisions we can."

Groh on the Devante Parker trade: "I would say Matt Patricia did a great job of being on that early and kind of getting the information to us as quickly as he could, and we were in on that early and it really came together well for us and we're really excited about having Devante here."

I think Patricia is really smart, a good coach and hasn't gotten a fair shake at times around these parts, but this smells like an all-time sales job. I asked a well-connected Patriots source about it, and he said, "A.B. ... After Bill."

Before we get into all of that, first of all, when did Patricia acquire all this great pro personnel knowledge ... when he was a head coach in Detroit under a GM who hired him? Or was it his "consultant" year last season in New England?

And Patricia was the only person in the NFL — let alone in New England's own building — who figured out the Dolphins might be willing to part with a receiver after drafting Jaylen Waddle, trading for Tyreek Hill and signing Cedric Wilson?! I would hope the Patriots' offensive gameplans have a little more foresight this season or ... good luck.

2. More importantly, the source's point about Patricia and after Belichick ... there's a large ecosystem in the greater Foxborough area that took roots 20 years ago and has grown into oak trees in the decades since with Belichick at the center.

Whenever Belichick decides to hang it up, and no one knows when, it could be at any time, what would happen to said ecosystem should the Krafts decide to hire outside Belichick World? A lot of people who have had the rarest of gifts in the NFL world — consistent and lucrative employment thanks to Belichick (and Brady) — could be on the outside looking in. Call it the Belichick Industrial Complex — coaches, staffers, security, personnel ... you name it, and they all might be on the outs if an outsider is hired with his own ideas and own staff, just like Belichick did 22 years ago. And that includes Groh himself, who never would have been promoted to his position in most NFL cities — although we have a feeling he's going to surprise, if Belichick listens to him. 

If Patricia — whose personnel chops are now being pumped ad nauseum, to say nothing of his new role on offense this season (if Jones is good this season, guarantee you we hear he's had a role in that too) — is promoted by the Krafts in an effort of continuity because he can now, if people are to be believed, do both the coach and GM roles, then an awful lot of people can stay in their spots and homes for years to come.

This feels like a sell job on the Krafts. It may just work, but that would mean the Patriots are winning at a high level very soon ... 

3. A lot has been made of this Groh quote, with the insinuation that it could indicate the Patriots will be aggressive getting a receiver in the draft: "Wherever teams can add an instant impact player, which is what these wide receivers are in the game today, they're going to do it and you can't just sit around and wait and hope to get one of these guys in the draft. You've got to be proactive about going to go get one of them."

My two thoughts: a) he was at least partly referencing the Parker trade, basically explaining why the Patriots would make the deal — Groh even called Parker "a great player," and b) even if Groh was talking about the draft, these are his thoughts and those don't really matter ... it only matters what Belichick will do. Here's hoping Belichick is doing a lot of listening because Groh isn't wrong. 

4. Groh will probably get tasered for this remark: "Hopefully your first-round pick is coming in and providing something for you right away and similarly with the second and third-round picks." Again, he's right and being very honest, but the Patriots don't speak like that for a reason: because it gives the media and some of their fans a barometer to critique them on. So picks in the first three rounds should have a good shot at contributing early?

Ok, well, let's go through the recent drafts since 2014 using that yard stick:

Hits (9): Mac Jones, Christian Barmore, Kyle Dugger, Damien Harris, Isaiah Wynn, Sony Michel, Joe Thuney, Malcom Brown, Jimmy Garoppolo.

Misses (18): Ronnie Perkins, Josh Uche, Anfernee Jennings, Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene, N'Keal Harry, Joejuan Williams, Chase Winovich, Yodny Cajuste, Duke Dawson, Derek Rivers, Antonio Garcia, Cyrus Jones, Jacoby Brissett, Vincent Valentine, Jordan Richards, Geneo Grissom, Dominique Easley.

5. From Groh's lips to Belichick's ears (please): "Yeah, without a doubt we're looking to get faster everywhere. It's not just defense, it's offense, it's special teams. It's not just linebacker."