The draft is completely unpredictable, especially a year like this with a cloudy quarterback situation, and that’s why the NFL has done a good job making this a must-watch TV event.
I kept the final mock draft straight, no trades, which won’t happen, but this was the fairest approach. I do believe the Patriots will likely trade back if they have a dance partner and a stud doesn’t fall to them. The Panthers, Falcons, Giants, Jets, and Eagles will also be classic trade-back candidates. The Saints and the Chiefs are two teams I would look at to come up. The Lions, with the last pick of Round 1, is always a selection that is a valuable asset.
As of now, the Patriots have already added four picks from the start of the offseason. They now have a total of nine picks — after the late-round swap with the Texans — and they’ll use this to maneuver the draft board throughout the weekend. Make sure you read the positional draft previews which take a deeper dive on key prospects throughout each round.
Round 1, Pick 21
Round 2, Pick 54
Round 3, Pick 85
Round 4, Pick 127
Round 5: Pick 158
Round 6: Pick 183
Round 6: Pick 200
Round 6: Pick 210
Round 7: Pick 245
Here's our final stab at the first round, and then we'll make pick at all the Patriots' spots, and offer up 10 names for New England among undrafted players:
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: OT Evan Neal, Alabama
Aidan Hutchinson or Travon Walker are the betting favorites to go No. 1. So, this is unconventional, but I just can’t get passed the fact that Trevor Lawrence was a top-tier QB prospect who struggled last season, partly because he lacked protection and support. They’ve hired an offensive coach, Doug Pederson, who had strong offensive lines in Philadelphia. They’ve tagged LT Cam Robinson, but he isn’t a stud and both of the top offensive tackle prospects can swing positions. I think the Jags invest in Lawrence by picking Neal to shore up their offensive line going forward.
2. Detroit Lions: DE Aidan Hutchinson, Michigan
If Hutchinson doesn’t go first overall, this is the easiest pick in the whole draft. Culture, scheme, and need fit for the Lions. They were one of the worst defenses in the league, giving up almost 6 yards a play. Hutchinson may not be an All-Pro, but he can be a Pro-Bowler.
3. Houston Texans: OT Ikem Ekwonu, NC State
Nick Caserio’s first full draft cycle and the Texans are a big pivot on the board. There are two distinct areas I see them going. Either defensive backfield to support Lovie Smith's defense (last year they gave up the most yards per pass and they just lost S Justin Reid to the Chiefs) or build from within and take the best player available on the line of scrimmage. They were a bad run blocking team last year and this season is about finding what you have with QB David Mills. They go with the best offensive lineman available, Ekwonu. He may stick at tackle, or he could be an All-Pro guard.
4. New York Jets: DE Kayvon Thibodeaux, Oregon
Robert Saleh’s zone defenses have relied on pass rushing pressure and, as the Patriots saw in the AFC Playoffs, you’re going to need to get to the QBs in the AFC East. There’s lots of pre-draft smoke about him but the Jets bet on substantial upside.
5. New York Giants (VIA CHI): OT Charles Cross, Mississippi State
Giants need offensive line help, period. Carolina, picking next, needs the same thing and so they can’t afford to wait. The G-Men use this pick on Cross, who is a great pass protector with high potential.
6. Carolina Panthers: QB Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh
If I am the Panthers, I am trading back and settling for a QB later in the first round. But Matt Rhule and company are under pressure to find a QB and win now. Pickett is most ready and even though they’ve put up a smokescreen around other players, Rhule’s comfort level with Pickett (recruited him in college) and his ability to pick up Ben McAdoo’s offense in year 1 leads them to this pick.
7. New York Giants: DE Travon Walker, Georgia
Giants may trade out here and they’ll be looking for either help in the defensive backfield or an edge rusher. Their best teams have always pressured the quarterback and they pick Walker. He’ll fit well in the NFC East, he’s excellent against the run. He has enormous physical potential but he’s yet to fully craft his pass rush skills.
8. Atlanta Falcons: QB Malik Willis, Liberty
The Falcons also need help at WR, but they can prioritize that at the top of the second round. They go get their replacement for Matt Ryan and let him sit on the bench for a year behind former #2 pick, Marcus Mariota. They hope Willis will be the next Mike Vick.
9. Seattle Seahawks (VIA DEN): CB Ahmad Gardner, Cincinnati
There will be some noise about the Seahawks drafting Russell Wilson’s replacement, but I think they will be patient. They get back to their core, which is retooling that defense and select Gardner. His best comp is former Seahawk, Richard Sherman.
10. New York Jets (VIA SEA): CB Derek Stingley Jr., LSU
While his injuries over the last two seasons have gotten a lot of attention, he’s a top of the draft talent. The Jets ranked 30th in passing yards allowed next season. Stingley immediately makes them better if he can stay on the field. If he regains his freshman form, he is their new Darrelle Revis.
11. Washington Commanders: WR Garrett Wilson, Ohio State
Commanders go wide receiver here and any of the top 3 options would be suitable. Given Carson Wentz’s accuracy issues, and success with Alshon Jeffery and Michael Pittman Jr., I almost went with a bigger body (Drake London). But after their success with Terry McLaurin, they go back to the Ohio State pipeline to pick Wilson.
12. Minnesota Vikings: Edge Jermaine Johnson II, Florida State
The Vikes struggled against the pass last year, so a corner could be a target, but the new defensive coordinator’s scheme relies on good edge play. Johnson has the capability to be a 3-down player at the NFL level and he grew up locally in Minnesota.
13. Houston Texans (VIA CLE): S Kyle Hamilton, Notre Dame
One of the safest picks but hardest draft projections, Hamilton’s fall ends with Houston. A defensive chess piece he’s perfect for Lovie’s scheme where he’ll be able to use wits and athleticism to play with the ball in front of him.
14. Baltimore Ravens: OT Trevor Penning, Northern Iowa
A smart team that almost always finds itself in a position to draft good players. They will have several solid options. I give them Penning, which feels like a perfect fit for their running scheme, the mentality they desire, and depth along their depleted offensive line (Ronnie Stanley has played in 7 games the last two seasons). Wouldn’t be surprised if they use the pick on the opposite side of the ball with Jordan Davis.
Jameson Williams
15. Philadelphia Eagles (VIA MIA): WR Jameson Williams, Alabama
While they may have bigger needs, the Eagles invest in building a dynamic offense for the future. Philly fans will have visions of DeSean Jackson running by defensive backs in the open field as they watch highlights of Williams. Combining him with DeVonta Smith would be a dangerous duo.
16. New Orleans Saints (VIA PHI, VIA IND): WR Drake London, USC
The Saints will be upset that the top offensive tackles are gone, and they can wait on a QB. However, they do need significant help at wide receiver and gives them (and Jameis Winston) another big target to pair with Michael Thomas.
17. Los Angeles Chargers: DT Jordan Davis, Georgia
The Chargers will be evaluating a lot of the same positions as the Patriots. They were one of the worst teams in the league against the run and they pick the guy who will make the biggest impact. While it’s fair to question his impact, a run-stopper in the evolving NFL game, Davis’ size and athletic combination is freakishly rare. Size still matters and you bet on traits.
18. Philadelphia Eagles (VIA NO): DB Dax Hill, Michigan
The Eagles tied for the worst completion percentage against (70%) last year. They need help at both corner and safety and none of their starters are long-term answers. While they also need LB help, the franchise hasn’t drafted the position in the first round in over 40 years. If Howie Roseman keeps this pick, it’s tough to the top the versatility offered by Hill.
19. New Orleans Saints (VIA PHI): QB Matt Corral, Ole Miss
The Saints take a future QB, a kid they’ll know well from his SEC experience. Corral isn’t the perfect prospect, but he has an ultra-quick release (like Drew Brees), and his strength is short and intermediate routes (the hallmark of the Saints offense).
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: CB Trent McDuffie, Washington
The Steelers take a Patriots target right before their pick by selecting McDuffie. A clean prospect who is the best zone corner in the draft. He becomes the long-term replacement for CB Joe Haden.
21. New England Patriots: LB Devin Lloyd, Utah
With several of their other targets off the board, the Patriots get their difference-maker in the middle. Throughout their dynasty run, the Patriots have always had a strong leader in the middle. From Tedy Bruschi to Jerod Mayo to Dont’a Hightower. All of them were cerebral, allowing the defense versatility pre and post snap. Lloyd is the next in line. My write-up from earlier this offseason:
“I have him ranked as the best linebacker in the class. He has a really good combination of size, playing experience/recognition skills, and athleticism. His versatility allows him to play all 3 downs; tackles against the run, he can cover backs and tight ends (former safety had 3 career INTs returned for TDs) and can rush the passer (8 sacks this year). He’s comfortable playing in space and shows good range on tape. He’s a smart guy and can sometimes freelance, something the Patriots will want to get comfortable with. The two-time Butkus Award finalist is a captain and known as a leader inside the program. He reminds me of San Francisco 49er Fred Warner or maybe even the upside of Colt, Darius Leonard.”
There are some late rumors about his medicals, and while it’s impossible to account for that, he was durable in college (stayed on the field all three seasons). Either way, the Patriots will have a strong handle. The concern about his speed is overblown. He plays fast, he was a former safety, and his 40 time (4.66) was close to Jamie Collins and Hightower coming out of college. It was faster than his comp, current Colt Darius Leonard.
Others considered:
- OT Tyler Smith, Tulsa: One of the best run-blocking and plus power players in the draft. Smith could contribute at guard next season. He’ll need refinement at tackle, he takes too many penalties, but he has Pro-Bowl potential.
- CB Kaiir Elam, Florida: I’d be happy with Elam or Booth but prefer the Gator because of his SEC experience playing man coverage.
22. Green Bay Packers (VIA LV): WR Chris Olave, Ohio State
While the Packers haven’t gone WR in the first round in 20 years, they look to replenish weapons and invest in Rodgers' final run. Olave is a smooth wide receiver that will use his route running to get open for the veteran QB.
23. Arizona Cardinals: DT Devonte Wyatt, Georgia
Wyatt can play any technique across the line of scrimmage which will allow him to be a 3-down player for the Cards. I went with a bigger player because the Cardinals, like the Patriots, struggled to stop the run as the year went on and allowed 4.6 YPC.
24. Dallas Cowboys: OG Kenyon Green, Texas A&M
Their interior line has struggled with injuries and performance has slipped. It showed last year as they passed the ball to open the run game versus their former identity as a run-first offense. They’ll go back to investing in their core which helps their two best players, Dak Prescott and Zeke Elliott.
25. Buffalo Bills: CB Andrew Booth, Clemson
The Bills are in a pretty good position talent-wise, but Tre’Davious White is coming off an ACL injury and Levi Wallace left in free agency. Corner is their top need. They go with Booth who has a ton of talent and experience playing zone.
26. Tennessee Titans: OG Zion Johnson, Boston College
One of the cleanest prospects in the draft and someone Mike Vrabel will know well (his son lined up at tackle next to him). The Titans' offensive line is predicated on physicality, running the ball, and play action. They need support on their interior line and Zion becomes a Day 1 starter.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: CB Kaiir Elam, Florida
The Bucs will be disappointed the top two guards are off the board. They may invest in the front seven but in this scenario, I give them the best corner available to play opposite Carlton Davis. Elam hasn’t always been consistent, and he had too many penalties last year but he’s a first-round talent with strong SEC experience.
28. Green Bay Packers: DE Logan Hall, Houston
The Packers normally like to invest along the line of scrimmage and Hall helps them do that. Some teams may see him as a strongside DE and others will ask him to add bulk and play on the inside (at least on rushing downs). The Pack could use help in both areas.
29. Kansas City Chiefs (VIA MIA): WR Jahan Dotson, Penn State
Dotson is one of the most competitive WRs in this class. His catch radius is much bigger than his size, he can line up at multiple positions, he plays fast, and he has the best hands in the class. Dotson becomes an immediate contributor and he’ll have a better rookie season than some of the wide receivers drafted ahead of him.
30. Kansas City Chiefs (VIA MIA): DE David Ojabo, Michigan
He suffered an Achilles tear at his pro day, but his upside is still tantalizing. KC will recognize that this late in the first is either an immediate contributor with a second-round grade or get a guy who would normally have a first-round grade. The luxury of Patrick Mahomes, he’ll keep them in the playoff race as they continue to build for the future. So, they make a pick that will help their defense in the playoffs, 2023, and going forward.
31. Cincinnati Bengals: C/G Tyler Linderbaum, Iowa
Joe Burrow tore his ACL his rookie season and then the Bengals gave up the third-most sacks in the league last year. The best way to protect the QB is to keep the pocket clean up the middle and old friend Ted Karras isn’t the long-term answer. Linderbaum is the highest-rated center by PFF (95.4) in years. He’s only allowed 19 pressures and no sacks across his 35 career starts.
32. Detroit Lions (VIA LAR): S Jaquan Brisker, Penn State
This is a pick that is likely to be traded but the Lions have a significant need for immediate contributors in the secondary. Lewis Cine is another good option, but I think Brisker fits the mold of Campbell’s program. Played through nagging injuries this year and he was the “unquestioned leader” of the Penn State program. Good instincts, puts himself around the football and doesn’t make penalties.
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(Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Auburn Tigers defensive back Roger McCreary (23) pursues a play on defense during a college football game against the Penn State Nittany Lions on Sept. 18, 2021 at Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania.
Below is a mock of the remaining Patriots picks. Just as above, no trades which means I missed on some guys and couldn’t work the board. They will be aggressive this weekend.
Not perfect, but I generally got players that fit their scheme and makeup, and looked to address some key needs. I’ve also added the top 10 free agents I’d like for them to sign.
FIRST ROUND
Pick 21: LB Devin Lloyd, Utah
The new QB of their defense.
SECOND ROUND
Pick 54: CB Roger McCreary, Auburn
If Travis Jones is there for the Patriots, they should watch their step, so they don’t trip running to the podium. However, I think he’ll be gone, and I went with the competitive, scrappy McCreary. One of the best corners in the SEC that can play man coverage. I’d very happy with him in Round 2.
Others considered:
- WR John Metchie, Alabama: Hard to quibble with this pick. While he wouldn’t offer much next year coming off an ACL injury and learning a complex offense as a rookie, I expect he’ll be a solid starter in the NFL and someone Mac could trust.
THIRD ROUND
Pick 85: S Alontae Taylor, Tennessee
Regarded as a team leader, especially since he didn't transfer when many of the top players within the Vols program did. A college corner whose best fit is at safety. He has enough size, is physical in run support, and a positional change unlocks his speed (4.36) and recognition skills. As always with the Patriots, special teams matter in their evaluation and he's a good gunner.
Others considered:
- DT Phidarian Mathis, Alabama: He went off the board right before this pick or he otherwise would have been the selection. Love the player and the play style.
- CB Marcus Jones, Houston: One of my draft favorites was too duplicative of the prior pick, Roger McCreary. But he’s a 4 down player who I expect they have their eye on closely.
- OLB Darrian Beavers, Cincinnati: I’ve been banging his drum all off-season and believe he could be the replacement for Kyle Van Noy. But he’ll need to put on weight and change positions which effects his impact next year. He’ll go around to earlier than I was willing to bite.
FOURTH ROUND
Pick 127: WR Wan’Dale Robinson, Kentucky
Robinson started his career at Nebraska before transferring home to Kentucky. Robinson is most effective, and a weapon, out of the slot. He's short but he has a solid build with a nice blend of speed, acceleration, and toughness when carrying the football. He’s a great open-field weapon, like Percy Harvin, that requires some scheming to get the ball in his hands. He could be used to spell James White in a pinch. He will need to be more consistent running routes for the Patriots' offense, but his outstanding quickness helps him win 1v1 and something their offense needs.
Others considered:
- NT Neil Farrell, LSU: I gambled, and he was gone but he’d be a guy to consider given their need for true run stoppers.
- RB Kyren Williams, Notre Dame: Another favorite prospect of mine that would be great for the Patriots system. But I felt slot, and Robinson’s versatility, was more valued.
- WR Kyle Philips, UCLA: He fits their slot mold to a “T”, and I would have been happy with him or Boise State’s Khalil Shakir.
FIFTH ROUND
Pick 158: DE Isaiah Thomas, Oklahoma
The Sooners moved Thomas around the line of scrimmage, but he’d fit the Trey Flowers mold for the Patriots. He’s got a pro-frame and great length with the ability to pack on more “good” weight. He plays a little stiff which is a concern, but he hit their testing marks at the combine. He’s a bit of a late bloomer but he’s a smart kid and someone the organization should bet on given his frame and potential.
Others considered:
- OT Dare Rosenthal, Kentucky: Another favorite prospect of mine who I think will be a starting OT with more seasoning, strength and maturity. I didn’t pick him because he may be off the Patriots board for off-field issues (unclear if they are significant or not).
SIXTH ROUND
Pick 183: DT Otito Ogbinna, UCLA
A little bit of a need pick but he’s a good combination of size, athletic ability, and effort. He consistently hustles beyond his gaps (will make plays downfield). Ogbonnia doesn’t have elite power to walk a lineman back or fully drop anchor, but he’s an interior rotational player in the Patriots scheme.
Others considered:
- LB Kyron Johnson, Kansas: Huge fan of this kid and a very Patriots pick. He’s going to be an ace special teamer. Needs development to play every down but he gets after the QB despite his size.
Pick 200: RB Abram Smith, Baylor
The very definition of a 3-way player. He was a starter at LB last year before moving to RB this year, winning the starting role, and leading the Big 12 in rushing (1,601 yards). He’s not a top RB prospect, nor a top LB prospect, and that will scare some teams. But he runs with force and those inside the program say he’s a tough leader. He showed better hands than I expected at the Senior Bowl (still average) and really tried to protect the ball. Teams that value versatility and special teams, like the Patriots, will have him higher on their board. He may be a luxury pick but he’s an immediate replacement for Brandon Bolden.
Others considered:
- RB Jerrion Ealy, Ole Miss: Smith may not be available here and this would be a good spot for Ealy. He could become the future third down back.
- TE Austin Allen, Nebraska: Scott Chandler type player who was team captain and Big Ten TE of the year. His arrow pointing up.
Pick 210: OLB Chris Allen, Alabama
A very Bill Belichick / Patriots selection. He broke his foot in the first game against Miami and missed the season. He was second-team All-SEC last year, leading the conference in TFL (13). He played pretty well in big games. This would be a savvy move by the Patriots.
Others considered:
- FB Connor Heyward, Michigan State: Best fullback in the draft and son of Craig “Ironhead” Heyward and brother to current Steeler, Cameron Heyward. Better athlete than he looks, and the former RB can contribute in many ways.
ROUND SEVEN
Pick 245: OL Vederian Lowe, Illinois
Led the program in career starts (over 50) and was one of the college football’s "Man of the Year" nominees. He's mature, already married with a family, and he adopted his younger brother after their mother passed away. They love him inside the program, and he improved this year under former Patriot coach, Brett Bielema. He's good in the run game, decent in the pass game but Lowe is a development prospect that will need continued coaching. Good guy to bet on this late in the draft.
Others considered:
- DL Eric Johnson, Missouri State: Strong, powerful player who did not look out of place at the Senior Bowl. I think he’s a 3-4 strongside DE that would rotate on running downs and develop as he earns reps.
- OT Luke Tenuta, Virginia Tech: A development pick and potential swing tackle (he played both sides for the Hokies). Patriots will like his length, smarts, and awareness. Like most players that height, he can struggle with leverage and will need to improve pad level before he's ready to see the field.
Britain Covey
Top 10 Priority Free Agents
WR Britain Covey, Utah: He’s one of my favorite potential Patriot targets. He’s a tough player who reminds me of former Patriot, Braxton Berrios. He's a captain, an older guy who started his career in 2015. He’s known as a smart kid with a high GPA and mature (he’s married). He offers plus return ability (5x All-Conference, 2,000 career yards), and at a minimum could be a replacement for current WR Gunner Olszewski.
LB Diego Fagot, Navy: The Defensive MVP of the Shrine Bowl plays with good instincts and physicality. He was a productive player at Navy (led the team in tackles the last 3 years) and he's known as a great leader within that program. Given Bill Belichick’s obvious Navy connections this would be a good home for Diego.
TE John FitzPatrick, Georgia: He played 30+ snaps a game for the Bulldogs because he was one of the best run-blocking TEs in the country. FitzPatrick is a tough kid that played injured all season (stress fractures in both feet) and immediately had surgery the morning after the National Title win. He could be a run-blocking depth piece that this offense could use given their existing makeup. Smart kid, who is well-liked within the program, and graduated in 3 years. Classic Patriot.
OL Nick Ford, Utah: A tough kid and has a lot of positional versatility having played all over the line across 40 career starts. Needs more refinement before he’s ready to contribute but he plays with power and a nasty demeanor. He was 2x First-team All-PAC-12.
QB E.J. Perry, Brown: The Andover native is a natural leader that plays with good awareness. Arm strength, accuracy, and mechanics need improvement but that’s to be expected (at this stage and his profile). He may not get drafted because of his turnovers but the Patriots will value his athleticism (4.65 speed). Ideally, with more playing experience, his competitiveness, and the traits he’d be worth a roster spot (easy practice squad).
WR Slade Bolden, Alabama (5-10, 193): He played QB in high school and was Louisiana Player of the Year. He's tough, has good hands, and relative quickness but far from elite. The fact he saw the field for Alabama, given their roster of first-round wideouts, is impressive. But he's not very sudden and that hurts players that aren't fast in the NFL. It's also the difference between him and some of the past Patriot slots. He's a guy that the Patriots would love to have in camp, develop, and get connected with Mac Jones.
LB Kuony Deng, California: A two-year captain that averaged 8 tackles a game in his career before suffering a leg injury early in the season. He's gifted physically with elite length which helps in the passing game. He's a player that may be better fit on the edge (6-6, 240) and he's raw for the NFL game.
FB John Chenal, Wisconsin: Strong player that is a hammer in the run game. Brother, Leo, is a top 5 linebacker prospect in this draft. A replacement for Jakob Johnson.
CB Jermaine Waller, Virginia Tech: He was a high school QB and then started in 2019 at CB for Hokies. He then missed most of 2020 with injuries. He had a great start to the 2021 season (4 INTs in 5 games) and then tailed off as he played through a lower-body injury suffered in the game against Pitt. He ran a slow time in the 40 (4.68) which is going to hurt his draft stock. He’s athletic, good competitor, long arms, and played through an injury. The tape also shows that he can play the long ball better than his timed speed would indicate. They’ve done well with these types of signings.
OG Ben Petrula, BC: Started as a freshman and he has a ton of playing experience (60 games started). He received some form of All-ACC honors every year. May be athletically limited at the next level but he’s tough and has played all over the line of scrimmage for BC. Depth piece for an NFL team will the hope that he’ll make a practice squad in year one.