Starting to take a closer look at what the Patriots currently have on the roster, and the top draft prospects at each position.
Previously:
WIDE RECEIVER
Current Roster
Contract Year
Jakobi Meyers (Y slot)
Nelson Agholor (X boundary)
N’Keal Harry (X) - Additional team option year
Kristian Wilkerson (Z move)
Malcolm Perry (Y)
Tre Nixon (Z)
2023
Kendrick Bourne (Z)
DeVante Parker (X)
Ty Montgomery (Z)
Patriots Historical Drafting
Over the last 15 years, the Patriots have made 14 WR selections. Five of those could be classified as true slot wideouts. Over the same period, four slot WRs have made the roster after being signed as priority free agents. There’s no trend on where they’ve drafted from, but they have not targeted a slot WR before Round 4 (Josh Boyce, TCU). This is a position where they’ve had some success. Julian Edelman (Kent State) is one of their great success stories and they deserve some credit for drafting Braxton Berrios (Miami) although the Jets signed him off the practice squad. Both Jakobi Meyers (NCST) and recently departed Gunner Olszewski (Bemidji St) were priority free agent signings after the draft.
They haven’t had much success recently with boundary receivers. The most obvious examples are N’Keal Harry (Arizona St), Aaron Dobson (Marshall), and Chad Jackson (Florida). They do deserve some credit for the Round 4 selection of Malcolm Mitchell (Georgia). While he had a knee injury that ended his career, he helped them win a Super Bowl as a rookie. Bad luck for the player and the team. They also deserve a ton of credit for Matthew Slater (UCLA) in Round 6 as a special teamer. Lastly, I found it interesting that of their 11 outside (X, Z) receiver draft picks and PFA signings; 4 came from Group of 5 schools and 4 came from the PAC-12. Only 1 selection from the ACC and Big 12 each, and none from the Big Ten.
Draft Expectations for the Position
On average there are almost 2 wide receivers picked in the first round (over the last 5 years). Given the prevalence of the position, it was lower than I expected. But there a lot of wideouts that get taken every year (about 22). It’s another deep class this year. Specific to the slot role, there are 8-9 players I expect to be drafted and then another 8-10 undrafted free agents who will have the chance to make rosters (and practice squads) next year.
The slot is an incredibly important position for the Patriot offense. It requires quickness, football intelligence, toughness, and discipline. The NFL is a third down league and the Patriots lean on their slot wide receivers and receiving backs more than most offenses. Meyers has been solid for them but doesn’t have the quickness of past offensive staples (Edelman, Wes Welker, Troy Brown). Malcolm Perry (Navy) was a player they liked coming out of college (he was a record-setting QB for the Midshipmen), but Miami made him one of the last picks of the 2020 draft.
The Patriots will address the slot position at some point, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there are at least two rookie WRs in camp. They’ll be opportunistic on draft night and sign at least one as a priority free agent.
Potential First-Rounders
WR Garrett Wilson, Ohio St (6-foot-0, 183 pounds): He’s a three-level threat (quick on short routes, decent route runner on intermediate routes, and plenty of speed for deep routes) with top-tier body control and ability to separate. I think he will do well in the pro game. Very productive after the catch, especially on short and intermediate routes. Bigger CBs may give him a challenge and so he’ll have to focus on getting into his routes and off press (people tend to play Ohio St off-coverage). He’s a playmaker with elite acceleration.
WR Drake London, USC (6-4, 219): London is a monster at WR. He’s a former basketball player at USC, and it shows with his body control, especially shielding defenders on short routes. Because he is so big, he’s elite at winning contested catches and he’s really effective after the catch. He is super physical for a WR; runs hard and rarely goes down with light contact. He was leading the country in catches and first downs when he broke his ankle. He can be a plus downfield blocker when he commits to it. Ultimately, he’s a possession receiver that uses his size and competitiveness to win. His floor is someone like former Patriot, Brandon Lafell and his ceiling is someone like LA Ram, Allen Robinson.
WR Jameson Williams, Alabama (6-1, 179): He's likely to be available to them now that he'll be rehabbing an ACL injury next year. I do think the Patriots do a deep dive on him but he’s not a traditional selection for them. I think he’s a taller DeSean Jackson and understandable that Patriots fans will be interested in him because of his game-breaking potential. Like Jackson, he prefers room to work and play strength is not a strong suit. But he has elite speed and elite separation which is a dangerous combination. It allows him to explode out of his breaks to get on defenders and once Jameson has the ball in his hands, he is dangerous (79 catches, 1,572 yards, 15 TDs, and 19.9 YPC). Almost 30% of his catches went for over 30 yards. He dominated Georgia in the SEC Championship and they likely win the National Title if he doesn't get hurt.
WR Jahan Dotson, Penn St (5-11, 178): He’s a dynamic player with the football and the Nittany Lions really made an effort to get him the ball (91 catches, 1,182 yds, and 12 TDs). He has plus body control and competitiveness which equals a bigger catch radius than his size would indicate. He’s relatively fast (4.43), good hands (only 2 dropped passes on 93 catchable targets) and crafty with natural skills once the ball is in the pocket. Dotson has good FBI and reportedly interviewed well at Combine. Plus, Big Ten CBs who were drafted last year said that Dotson was the most difficult guy they faced. He’d be a steal in the second round.
WR Chris Olave, Ohio St (6-0, 187): He’s a smooth player, fast (4.39), and uses savvy route-running skills to get open. He has some solid ball tracking skills. Olave will be challenged against bigger NFL corners and will need to add play strength. I don’t think he's a true WR1 at the next level, but I think he’ll be able to contribute right away because of his polish and experience. Getting open is the game, and what he does that well, so I think he’ll play in the league for a long time (like current Titan, Robert Woods).
WR Christian Watson, North Dakota (6-4, 208): A big man who produced big plays and dominated lower-level competition. Even though he played at North Dakota, he has pro talent (his father played in the NFL for 5 years). He can high point the football and good after the catch. At the Senior Bowl, he was consistent right from the jump and looked like one of the best players. He can run more than just deep routes, although that's where he'll make an impact early. Potential high ceiling if he gets into the right situation and with solid off-field intangibles I think there’s a good chance a team will bet on him early.
WR Treylon Burks, Arkansas (6-2, 225): He’s a very good college football player and a solid athlete. He has great size, he's built like a LB (6-foot-2, 225 pounds) and he’s faster than he tested (4.55 at the Combine). He’s able to run away from people because he has solid acceleration. Arkansas often lined him up in the slot, got him in motion, and targeted him in the screen game. Reminds me a lot of N’Keal Harry (in college) with his ability to win at the catch, good on the sideline or on a jump ball, and can be dangerous after the catch. If you like him, a team is going to say he dominated Alabama, led the SEC with plays over 20+ yards (22), and he could be the next A.J. Brown or Deebo Samuel. If you don't like him, you'll point to the slow 40, agility (7.28 3-cone), and limited route tree.
I don't think he's a fit for the Patriots, but he'll fit someone in the back half of the first round or early second.
(Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
John Metchie III #8 of the Alabama Crimson Tide pulls in this touchdown reception against Dwight McGlothern #2 of the LSU Tigers during the first half at Bryant-Denny Stadium on November 06, 2021 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
POTENTIAL PATRIOT FITS BY ROUND
Round 1: Garrett Wilson.
He’s the best WR in the class and that would represent good value if he were to fall to them. Otherwise, I don’t think they address the position in Round 1.
Round 2: John Metchie, Alabama (5-11, 187).
Almost too obvious of a pick. Metchie will be a good, solid player at the next level (#2 WR). He doesn’t have great size or speed but wins with quickness and runs pretty good routes. He can get bodied by more physical corners which could be a challenge and a move to the slot would make sense. He's a competitor, with a great work ethic, and CB Roger McCreary from Auburn said Metchie was the hardest guy he faced all year. I think there’s a chance Metchie drops to Round 3 (especially coming off an ACL) but I also think the Patriots will value Metchie more than other teams. The idea of teaming Metchie with Mac Jones is attractive.
I also like Skyy Moore (Western Michigan) who doesn’t have much size (5-9, 195) but led the country in broken tackles (26) for a wideout. I don’t think he’ll be there at pick 54 but he reminds me of Golden Tate coming out of Notre Dame.
Round 3: Wan’Dale Robinson, Kentucky (5-8, 178).
Robinson started his career at Nebraska before transferring home to Kentucky. Robinson is most effective, and a weapon, out of the slot. He's short but he has a solid build with a nice blend of speed, acceleration, and toughness when carrying the football. He’s a great open-field weapon, like Percy Harvin, that requires some scheming to get the ball in his hands. He will need to be more consistent running routes for the Patriots' offense, but his outstanding quickness helps him win 1v1 and something their offense needs.
If George Pickens (Georgia) falls into this territory, they may believe he is worth the risk. He’ll be all over the board for NFL teams; he has first-round talent, injury history, and some intangibles that need to be vetted. But his ball skills and speed make him an upside pick.
Round 4: Khalil Shakir, Boise St (6-0, 196).
One of the best players in the Mountain West Conference this year and productive for the Broncos over the last few seasons. He’s a high-character guy who works hard and will fit right into the Patriots locker room. His best fit in the NFL is the slot. He’s savvy with good footwork which helps create some route separation and body control. He offers return capability (always a plus for the Pats) and his hands and YAC are solid. He doesn’t have the 3-cone they desire but does check most of the other boxes.
If they went with a deep option, Danny Gray (SMU) would be a good pick. He’s a good worker, with sprinter speed to make big plays. I think his best football is in front of him.
Round 5: Kyle Philips, UCLA (5-11, 189).
Feisty player, with good hands and body control. He'll need some fine tweaking with his routes to help him get open against better athletes, but he has good footwork which really helps and has a knack for getting YAC. Kyle is also good at returning punts, which will be valued with the departure of Gunner Olszewski. Philips was first-team All-PAC 12, and he was one of the best players at the Shrine Bowl. He's a chain mover at the next level but the Patriots will value that more than most and he's a fit for them.
On the outside, I like Bo Melton (Rutgers) who I wrote about at the Senior Bowl. Multi-year captain who was a 4-year starter for the Scarlet Knights and does a lot of little things right.
Round 6: Dontario Drummond, Ole Miss (6-0, 215).
He’s built like a RB and good after the catch. He reminds me of Deebo Samuel coming out of South Carolina (forgive the cliche). He was the Rebels' best WR and a potential sleeper target for the Patriots. Keep in mind, the Pats were ahead of the curve with former Patriot, Corradelle Patterson. The reason he’s going to drop is that his hands need to be more consistent (he does try to hand catch), needs to advance his route tree, and he ran a glacial 40 time (4.65). But I like his competitiveness and production in the SEC (76 catches, 1,028 yards, 10 TDs).
I was also impressed with Velus Jones, Jr. (Tennessee) at the Senior Bowl. He’s a difference-maker right away in the return game as he develops as a WR.
Round 7: Kevin Austin Jr., Notre Dame (6-2, 200).
He was always a hyped-up player at Notre Dame, but he could never stay on the field because of injuries and a team suspension. But he stuck with it, stayed healthy as a senior and was the best WR for the Irish (48 catches, 888 yards, 7 TDs). He's built like a slightly smaller Julio Jones and Notre Dame players rave about his talent. His limited playing time and injury history means he’ll be available towards the end of the draft and he’s worth a development investment because of his solid size, speed (4.43) and agility (6.71 3-cone).
Some Free Agent Targets
WR Britain Covey, Utah (5-8, 170): Some of you may remember me highlighting him in the Rose Bowl preview and he went off for a big game (2 TDs, 1 receiving, 1 kickoff return). He’s one of my favorite potential Patriot targets. He’s a tough player who reminds me of former Patriot, Braxton Berrios. He's a captain, an older guy who started his career in 2015. He’s known as a smart kid with a high GPA and mature (he’s married). He offers plus return ability (5x All-Conference, 2,000 career yards), and at a minimum could be a replacement for current WR Gunner Olszewski.
WR Slade Bolden, Alabama (5-10, 193): He played QB in high school and was Louisiana Player of the Year. He's tough, has good hands, and relative quickness but far from elite. The fact he saw the field for Alabama, given their roster of first round wideouts, is impressive. But he's not very sudden and that hurts players that aren't fast in the NFL. It's also the difference between him and some of the past Patriot slots. He's a guy that the Patriots would love to have in camp, develop, and get connected with Mac Jones. But he's a 7th rounder, at best.
WR Deven Thompkins, Utah State (5-8, 155): His size is going to really drop him, but he led the Mountain West in receiving yards (over other NFL prospects) and was a semifinalist for the Biletnikoff Award. He’s a slot player that will have to make the roster via his return ability. Good production (102 catches, 1,704 yards, 10 TDs) and he tested well at his pro day (4.35 40 and 6.93 3-cone).
WR Jaquarii Roberson, Wake Forest (6-0, 182): Very productive player who had a good season (2nd-team All-ACC). He gets open through his route running, has solid hands, but lacks speed. His game is very similar to Jakobi Meyers.