How much can be learned from three pitches? How much stock should be placed in them?
There are small sample sizes...and there's there's a three-pitch sample size.
Out of other options, the Red Sox turned their lonely eyes to Matt Barnes with the game on the line at Tropicana Field, and damned if he didn't deliver.
The Tampa Bay Rays, trailing by a run entering the bottom of the ninth, took advantage of some wildness on the part of Jake Diekman (three walks) to load the bases, putting the potential tying run 90 feet away and the potential winning run in scoring position.
Diekman, who had been so reliable in the first two weeks, simply couldn't throw strikes, walking the first two hitters he faced, and then, after a terrific play by Trevor Story resulted in a forceout at second, walked one more to fill the bases. He fanned Brandon Lowe for the second out, but of the 28 pitches he had already thrown, just 12 were for strikes.
And so, acting manager Will Venable went to Barnes.
It has been an inauspicious spring for Barnes. He was not sharp in spring training, and the dropoff in his fastball velocity alarmed the team. He made some mechanical adjustments shortly before the season began to regain some life to his fastball, but not enough to regain the full trust of manager Alex Cora, who has used him mostly in low leverage spots.
Cora hasn't given up on Barnes, however. He has said, more than once, that it's his wish that Barnes eventually grabs the closer's job again.
Through the first 13 games, the back end of the bullpen has been amorphous. Three different relievers have earned saves, but Barnes wasn't among them. Instead, the Sox found themselves entrusting the ninth to, on various occasions, Diekman, Hansel Robles and Garrett Whitlock.
The save opportunities have been awarded based on matchups and availability. Meanwhile, Barnes continues to tinker with his delivery and tries to regain his form.
On Friday night, with Diekman wild and ineffective, Robles having already given them four huge outs, and Whitlock tabbed to be a fill-in starter Saturday, they were out of options. So Barnes it was.
After going 1-and-1 on his first two pitches, Barnes got Franco, only one of the most dangerous hitters in the game, to hit a hard grounder to the right side. Trevor Story glided over, and with a bit of a sliding stop, gloved the ball before firing to first for the final out.
A game that seemed perilously close to getting away from the Red Sox was, instead, secured after all. And a familiar face was responsible.
How meaningful those three pitches were is open to interpretation. Cora is on record as saying he likes structure at the back end of his bullpen. When you have an identified closer, the rest of the bullpen can slot in accordingly.
For now, it's clear that Diekman, Strahm and Robles are the trusted arms for high-leverage spots. (Whitlock, of course, is the most trustworthy of them all, but he's in something of a class of his own at this point, shifting between multi-inning relief, piggyback relief and even spot starter).
If Cora can settle on a closer, it would allow everybody else to fall into line, like interlocking pieces to a jigsaw puzzle.
The question, though, is how much can be gleaned from one at-bat. Yes, the game was on the line, and yes, there was no margin for error. And yes, Franco is a handful. And Barnes passed the test.
But his fastball still isn't back to where it was a year ago, when he was regularly pumping gas at 95-96 mph. The second half of the season was another story entirely. Barnes fell into some bad habits, lost his confidence, got COVID and never recovered. He was left off the postseason roster.
It was a stunning fall from grace in a matter of a few months. Barnes went from earning his first All-Star selection and a two-year, $18 million contract extension, to someone so out of favor that he couldn't crack a postseason roster.
Now, some six months after the Sox season ended ignominiously in Houston, Barnes is still not back in Cora's circle of trust. Given how competitive the American League East is, the Sox can't afford to punt away ninth-inning leads. Before he's back in the role for certain, he needs to show some consistency.
Friday night was a tough test -- bases full, one-run lead, Franco at bat -- and Barnes passed. The adrenaline was no doubt pumping, and his confidence had to be bolstered when he squirmed out of the mess.
In all likelihood, the Red Sox will need to see more. The remainder of the current road trip will likely present them -- and Barnes -- with more opportunities. He needs to add some crispness to the fastball, and better command, too.
In the meantime, Friday was a big step forward in Barnes' ongoing reclamation project. Only three pitches, yes, but a start under the most unforgiving of circumstances.
