The Celtics will likely play Game 1 of the NBA playoffs on Sunday, but who will join them on the floor at the TD Garden is still yet to be determined. With all the hand-wringing about having to face the Brooklyn Nets in the first round, the Celtics still aren’t sure if they're facing the Brooklyn Nets in the first round.
“Everybody's talking about Brooklyn, but they have a play-in game to win,” Ime Udoka said Sunday. “Certain teams can run from certain teams and end up that team not even be in there, so we’ll do what we do and kind of let chips fall where they may.”
The chips will probably still fall on the Brooklyn side, but nothing is guaranteed in a one-game setting. One hot shooting night, one guy foul trouble, one sprained ankle is all it takes to turn a single game around. The Cleveland Cavaliers are young and inexperienced, and a key player is hurt, but there's a chance they could pull this game out.
Without Jarrett Allen, the Cavs just haven't been the same. They're 9-17 without him, 35-21 with him. He and Evan Mobley combined to put Cleveland’s into the top five before the All-Star break. They were in the bottom seven after the break, and Allen will miss the play-in game.
Worse for the Cavs is their offense is almost as bad, leaving them with a net rating between Washington and Detroit since the break.
So how can they beat the Nets?
Obviously, they need a few things to go right. Darius Garland needs to take advantage of the porous Nets defense and have a career scoring night. The Cavaliers are going to need someone to combat Kevin Durant’s scoring punch, and Garland is part of that answer. He’s averaging 25.3 ppg in four games against the Nets, but he has only shot 42.7% against them, 4% below his season average.
Garland needs to find some serious efficiency in today's play-in game (7 p.m., TNT) if the Cavs are going to pull the upset.
Rookie of the Year candidate Evan Mobley has only faced Brooklyn twice, and he’ll need to pick up a bit of the scoring load. But more importantly, he needs to be a rim deterrent without Allen in the game. It’s asking a lot of a rookie, even one as good as Mobley, but the Nets need to pay the price for driving.
Basically, the Cavs need to get a little more than usual from everyone. Maybe it’s a Caris LeVert revenge game and he torches the Nets for a monster scoring night. Maybe it’s a vintage Kevin Love performance (which he’s had a few of this season). Maybe it’s Playoff Rajon Rondo showing up one more time to shock people. It could be Isaac Okoro having the defensive game of his life and taking Kyrie Irving out of the picture.
The Cavaliers do have players who can make strange things happen. The Nets, meanwhile, have holes that can be exploited. There is little rim protection, which could open the door for some big scoring for the Cavs. Irving is also a target for opposing offenses that could get picked on.
The Nets could also be a little worn out. Irving has been playing 40 minutes a game since his return. Durant has matched him. They had to play 40 minutes apiece to beat the Pacers. They had to do the same to beat the Cavs before that. They're playing huge minutes right now just to get by these so-so (or worse) teams, and that has to lead to a breaking point somewhere.
I’m not going to pretend the Cavaliers have a great chance at winning this game, but they do have a chance. They have players good enough to do it and the Nets have holes big enough to exploit.
And the nature of the play-in makes this a little different than any other game. There's pressure on the Nets to win this. They're the favorites, so the Cavs can play pretty carefree basketball. If they can parlay that attitude into a relaxed approach that lets them get hot early, maybe the pressure of the moment gets to the wrong person on the Nets. Maybe a lackadaisical approach by Brooklyn lets that happen and they just can’t get the game back from a streaky, young team.
Boston’s first-round opponent is probably going to be Brooklyn, but the Cavs might actually have something to say about that.
