Tuesday night in the NBA provided very little clarity in the Eastern Conference playoff race, and it gave the Boston Celtics very little help.
Here’s what we learned:
The top six in the East is set. Toronto clinched a playoff berth with a win over Atlanta, so we know 5/6 will come down to the Raptors or Chicago Bulls. Toronto leads Chicago by one game with three to play and the Bulls own the tiebreaker.
The magic number for Toronto to clinch the fifth seed is three, meaning any combination of Raptors wins and Bulls losses that amount to three gets them that spot. Chicago’s magic number for the fifth seed is four, which means the Bulls need Toronto to lose at least once.
Chicago closes with Boston tonight, Charlotte on Friday, and Sunday in Minnesota. Toronto finishes with Philadelphia Thursday, Houston Friday, and then Sunday in New York. Chicago flipping up to fifth isn’t out of the question, but their momentum is heading the wrong way. Toronto, meanwhile, is 7-3 in their last 10 games.
The smart money is on Toronto finishing in the fifth spot and Chicago finishing sixth. That means if the Celtics are facing any lingering vaccination issues that they’d like to solve simply by avoiding the Raptors at all, they need to finish somewhere other than fourth.
That's do-able for the Celtics because they hold the tiebreaker over Philadelphia.
Miami won last night, giving them a 2.5 game lead over Boston, Milwaukee, and Philly (all tied at 49-30). The Heat just need one more win over either Atlanta or Orlando or one more loss along the way from each of the pursuing teams, so that's all but a given.
With Boston, Milwaukee, and Philly all tied, Boston’s road boils down to this: They hold the tiebreaker no matter what over the Sixers. A win over the Bucks gives them the tiebreaker over Milwaukee too.
So if all three teams win out, Boston will finish second, Milwaukee third, and Philadelphia fourth, based on the tiebreakers. Boston controls its own destiny there.
The race in the East might just be for the third seed now that it’s established that Chicago is the most likely opponent there.
Brooklyn won last night while all three other play-in teams (Charlotte, Atlanta, and Cleveland) all lost. The Nets are now in the 7-8 game with New York, Cleveland, and Indiana on the schedule. They can very easily get home court in the play-in, win once, and grab the seventh seed, pitting them against the second seed.
That could set up a very entertaining first round with Kyrie Irving coming back to Boston for multiple games. Also, it could be a worst-case scenario for Boston having to play the toughest first round series despite earning the second seed.
You can say the Celtics should tank to avoid that, but the Bucks and Sixers could easily do the same and SOMEONE has to win that Celtics-Bucks game. No coach is going to actively try to lose the game and no end-of-bench player is going to intentionally miss shots. Luke Kornett and Malik Fits could combine for five straight alley oops to win the game and there would be nothing anyone could do about it.
“We'll see how Chicago goes and play from there,” Ime Udoka said. “It's too much to try to determine based on what other teams are trying to do or what they will do, or where the seedings land, so it's playing our best and from there we'll determine after Chicago what we do in Milwaukee and Memphis. Knowing Memphis is set and they could be resting guys, that could play into what we ended up doing. But we'll see down the line.”
So that's where we stand after Tuesday night. Things could change if the Knicks beat Brooklyn, so nothing is set in stone. We got a little bit closer to a clear picture, but the NBA optometrist still has a few more dials to flip before we can get a sharper view of the playoffs.
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Ime Udoka is already digging into playoff scenarios so they can hit the ground running once the regular season is over.
“We are digging into - doing it already, looking at different matchups,” he said. “I’m in my 10th year now coaching, nine as an assistant, so you get a heads up on ideas and what you want to do going into the playoffs. As far as schematically, what we do travels well into the playoffs. Our physicality on defense is gonna carry over. Things we’ve done unselfishly on offense is the right step. More so than any of that, it’s playing the right way and being healthy.”
Udoka says his nine previous seasons set him up well for this challenge, as has the process of turning things around this season.
“We’ve done a lot of switching up as we go through the season,” he said. “So it’s not something that’s gonna catch our guys off balance, off guard. But also the playoffs is about adjustments, so we’ll have A/B/C/D with the coaching staff. We’ll present what we need to with the players as well as adjustments.”
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Robert Williams is in Boston rehabbing while his teammates are on the road to wrap up the regular season.
“We left him back in Boston to expedite the process,” Udoka said after the team’s pre-Bulls shootaround. “He's a guy that's locked in with the guys and so I felt it was better to leave him back there and get the process rolling as fast as possible. He's in good spirits. His first surgery, so he's attacking it with the right mindset and I look forward to having him back sooner than later.”
Sooner rather than later sounds pretty good for everyone involved, especially if a Brooklyn series is looming in the first round. However, Udoka said it’s still a bit premature to expect him back THAT soon.
“We haven't looked at him being here for the first round, honestly,” Udoka said. “Four-to-six time frame is what it is and everybody kind of reacts differently to surgeries. But if possible, you know, we haven't really ruled them out obviously, being if he's ready, but we're going in with the mindset that he won't be there for the first round.”
Williams is close to two-a-day rehab sessions and has already been going through mobility, flexibility, and weight bearing exercises to strengthen the knee. Today marks one week since his surgery, so things seem to be progressing really well.
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Jayson Tatum (sore right knee), Jaylen Brown (sore right knee), and Al Horford (sore lower back) were all listed as probable for tonight’s game in Chicago.
“Just probable with soreness that they’ve been dealing with a little bit,” Udoka said. “So as the last few games or so, we’ll test it out pregame and see how they feel, see how we are from there.”