It's absolutely true that, two days into the new league year, the Patriots are worse than the 10-8 group that limped to the finish last season and couldn't compete with the Bills in their own division.
Four starters — JC Jackson, Shaq Mason, Ted Karras and Kyle Van Noy— are out the door. So is Brandon Bolden. It appears Trent Brown could join them. Then you also have the situation with the coaching staff and front office.
You could make the argument that, today, the Patriots are somewhere around the ninth-best team in just the AFC:
Bills
Chiefs
Bengals
Chargers
Broncos
Ravens
Titans
Dolphins (beat NE twice last year)
NEW ENGLAND
There's also the Raiders and Colts.
Seven teams make the playoffs. The Chargers, Broncos and Ravens did not make the playoffs last year. If they rebound, that means three teams have to be out (someone from the AFC South has to go to the postseason). Pittsburgh is one. Raiders could be the other, and you can't rule out the Bengals being a one-year wonder (although they've done well to beef up their offensive line).
Which other team is the favorite to be out? It has to be the Patriots.
Potential impact players at positions of need like Allen Robinson and Myles Jack have signed reasonable contracts elsewhere. And the Patriots have signed role players Terrance Mitchell (CB) and Ty Montgomery (RB/WR/KR), while trading for a potential starter in LB Mack Wilson.
So, no, it has not been a good start for New England this offseason.
Am I ready to bury them? Is it time to rip Bill Belichick for cheaping out with a QB in the second year of a five-year rookie deal?
No, I'm not. And no, it's not.
The Patriots have been very slow out of the gate, but there is still time and players available that can help this team. There are still options to make the 2022 Patriots better than the 2021 version and be right back into contention.
If the Patriots are eyeing the trade avenue, as they were at the combine, often that doesn't shake out until teams have seen how their own personnel plans shake out.
And, often, veterans with big contracts are shown the door after such moves. If the Patriots are eyeing protecting their potential comp picks (and I don't know that they are), street free agency is the way to go. Just today, WR Cole Beasley, OT La'el Collins, CB Logan Ryan and DT Fletcher Cox were shown the door. All three would improve the Patriots. These are other notable street free agents:
DE Trey Flowers
WR Jarvis Landry
DT Eddie Goldman
DT Michael Pierce
CB Janoris Jenkins
OT Marcus Cannon
CB A.J. Bouye
P Johnny Hekker
WR DaeSean Hamilton
Any combination of them could improve the Patriots and rescue this offseason.
So, yes, I'm going to continue to wait to see what the finished product looks like. There's a lot of game yet. I'm not telling you I expect anything to happen, but I'm not going to rush to judgment.
Am I worried that Belichick is going about his business the same way he did for 20 years, but ignoring the fact that he no longer has Tom Brady as a draw for players looking for a one-year, make-good contract? Yup, you bet.
But I'm also not going to go in on Belichick, yet, for declining to push cap out into future years for the present.
Is it true that you redo contracts and put void years in and open millions in cap room to fit just about anyone on your cap? Yes. Do I think the Patriots should do more of that? Yes. But it's also true the Patriots became who they were by not doing that. I'm not ignoring the Brady influence on that, not at all. The Rams proved you can win a Super Bowl by selling out, but we don't know whether it's sustainable. It very well could be, and I do think Belichick has been set in his ways and slow to recognize the cap is going to explode and they should be pushing more cap money out.
But I know the Patriots' system is sustainable — no one has ever been as consistent in the salary-cap era — even if Brady might have been the reason for that. I know a team like the Rams can win one, maybe two Super Bowls in a short period of time, but what does the rest of their tenure look like?
So, for now, I'm not going to rip anybody. Many shoes could still drop, and the Patriots' slow-and-steady approach might end up looking smart.
We just don't know yet.