Some random thoughts, insight, possible targets, gut feelings and the 2021 Net Defensive Ratings as the Patriots approach the new NFL league year and free agency/trade period at 4 p.m. today ...
• Yes, last year when they were the big whales in the free agency casino, the Patriots' new approach was front and center early. The first two days of the tampering period was basically a Patriots-palooza of news and signings, while 2/3rds of the league was pinching their pennies due to the cap restrictions caused by the pandemic.
So far this year, the news has been very quiet on the Patriots' front. The news of the two trades broke out of nowhere. So does that mean the Patriots aren't going to do anything? I wouldn't say that. I'm not telling you something is going to happen, or that they are going to go nuts like last year. But I would not be surprised if they have one big signing and a couple trades up their sleeves once we get past 4 p.m.
I'm really hoping the signing is a receiver — could the lack of Allen Robinson news and Patriots news be linked? I'm hoping there are a couple of trades that could address a few key spots, like receiver or line.
The lack of Patriots news doesn't surprise me because the Belichick circle has become tighter than ever. Belichick loyalists — namely Matt Patricia, Matt Groh and Joe Judge — are now firmly in command and none of those guys would leak a drop without Belichick saying so.
• Speaking of trades, that could be their key acquisition avenue now. Why? Well, a) by trading for a player, you aren't laying out a signing bonus, you just pay them 18 weeks during the season. B) Trading protected the possible compensatory picks for JC Jackson, Ted Karras, and perhaps others.
I think the Patriots, after blowing compensation for Joe Thuney, Tom Brady and Stephon Gilmore, are back to protecting their compensatory picks ... to build up their trade (veterans and raft) inventory. That means no free-agent signings to offset Jackson (say goodbye to Robinson, in that case).
Take it this way, why sign Marques Valdes-Scantling with a bonus and losing a 2023 comp pick, when you can trade for Robby Anderson — who is a waaay better player — and just pay his base salary?
• Trade could also be the avenue to improve at offensive tackle. There are rumors the Patriots have shown interest in Cowboys' OT La'el Collins. Trading for a tackle like that, even if Collins has been mostly a RT, would make a lot of sense. I could prefer a LT — that way you kick Wynn to LG, draft a RG and have Onwenu at RT, but Collins would keep Wynn at LT and kick Onwenu inside.
• The Terrance Mitchell signing could signify the Patriots are done at corner until the draft. That would mean they could continue to play zone in the back end, and that would require more investment in the pass rush. Someone like Za'Darius Smith, Melvin Ingram, Justin Houston, Jerry Hughes or Derek Barnett would be a worthy addition, since it would surprise if the Patriots will trust Josh Uche or Ronnie Perkins to be on the other side of Matthew Judon.
• Speaking of Uche, take a peek at where he finished in our Defensive Net Ratings (Bedard tabulated his plus/minus for the season, divided those by games played):
• Some names to watch as free agency officially starts, ranked by my preference for Patriots:
RECEIVER
Allen Robinson
Robby Anderson (trade)*
Jarvis Landry
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Marquez Valdes-Scantling
AJ Green 33
DeSean Jackson 35
CORNERBACK
Stephon Gilmore
AJ Bouye
Xavier Rhodes
Janoris Jenkins
Patrick Peterson
Joe Haden
Kyle Fuller
EDGE
Za'Darius Smith
Derek Barnett
Justin Houston
Jerry Hughes
Melvin Ingram
DEFENSIVE TACKLE
Michael Pierce
Derek Nnadi
Akiem Hicks
Calais Campbell
DaQuan Jones
Sheldon Richardson
LINEBACKER
Myles Jack
Vander Esch
Kyzir White
Jayon Brown
OL
Trai Turner
Nate Solder
• One last look at the depth chart:
