When it comes to the Patriots and how they might add to the team for 2022, you have to start with the economics — that's where it always start.
Speaking with multiple league sources at the combine, the wide-held NFL belief is that the Patriots, after an unprecedented spending spree in 2021 ($234.9 million), the team would be under considerable spending restraints. Basically, the Patriots pushed their cash/cap advantage in '21, when other teams were cap-strapped during the pandemic by borrowing from 2022's budget.
But that may not be the case. The Patriots may indeed be constrained by the salary cap, but not as much cash as previously thought. Yes, the cap can be manipulated in a number of different ways, if you want to boost your chances by pushing the cap out. But at some point, you're going to have to pay the piper, and the Patriots have never shown any inclination to do that. And they have unprecedented consistent success to show for it.
The Patriots have about $10 million in cap space right now, and they have the ability to create upwards of $50 million more, but that bill must be paid at some point, and the Patriots, if their history is any judge, will not do that. At least not much. But Belichick has never been in this position — sans Tom Brady and Belichick pushing 70 — so you never know.
But the Patriots may not be as constrained by cash as previously thought, or at least how the rest of the NFL views it, and that could lead to some more cap room.
How? We'll get into which free agents/trades the Patriots might be looking at. But first, a look at why the Patriots might have some decent financial freedom.
Remember when Belichick went on WEEI during the middle of the Cam Newton year of 2020 and basically waved the white flag and blamed the team's finances?
"I mean it's obvious we didn't have any money. It's nobody's fault," he said at the time. "That's what we did the last five years. We sold out and won three Super Bowls, played in a fourth and played in an AFC championship game. This year we had less to work with. It's not an excuse, it's just a fact."
What if Belichick just took a hit that year, with the hopes of using more money down the road?
Look at the cash expenditures the last three years, and what the cap was.
It's long been believed that the Patriots are a cash-to-cap team. That means the Krafts tell Belichick that each year, his player budget is what the cap is. Many teams operate in this fashion and while no one from the Patriots has come out and said that, their finances over the years add up to a cash-to-cap team.
Now, in 2020, despite what Belichick said on radio, the Patriots were not adjusting to any previous cash spending. The Patriots at that time, were among the lowest teams in the league the previous five years in terms of cash spent. But in 2020, they were $49 million under the cap in terms of cash spending. Why? Belichick wasn't being truthful, so what if he was just using '20 as a reset/evaluation year?
If the Patriots are indeed a cash-to-cap team, that means the cheapness of '20 and the spending spree in '21 basically cancel each other out. That would indicate the Patriots are back in schedule, meaning that they should have upwards of $60 million in cash to spend this season.
That doesn't mean they can sign anyone they want. But it does allow them to advance the salaries of players like Matthew Judon, Jalen Mills and Shaq Mason in signing bonuses to free up upwards of $13 million in cap space, or extend the likes of Mason and Hunter Henry, to free up more. And to frontload free-agent contracts.
That doesn't mean it's going to happen, but just food for thought if the Patriots make some moves.
We still believe, from all our intel, that the Patriots will be focusing on the secondary market, but they might be able to add one shiny new piece.
The Patriots have been focused on receivers, linebackers and will be looking for a cornerback. A look at who we believe they will be in play for:
FREE-AGENT RECEIVERS
Allen Robinson, Bears (PFF AAV: $16 million): Fits what the Patriots are looking for in an X receiver, but they're not going to get into a bidding war for him, and there will likely be one. It's a long shot, but if there Patriots were to put their envelope, it would be for a guy like Robinson.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Packers ($10 million): A very underrated prospect who has size (6-4) and speed (4.37). But have the feeling they would prefer trading for a Robby Anderson, who has similar profile and lower floor.
D.J. Chalk, Jaguars ($12.5 million): Speed to burn on the outside, but not as polished as Nelson Agholor with a second season in the offense and with Mac Jones. Don't think they would see this as a significant upgrade.
Braxton Berrios, Jets ($6.67 million): He's likely the first guy the Patriots go after and how they tender Gunner Olszewski could be a tip off. Berrios is better than every way and he'd be the new Danny Amendola. Jones needs that kind of guy. Belichick loves Berrios.
Cedric Wilson, Cowboys ($6.25 million): Would be a quicker, more athletic upgrade over Jakobi Meyers in the slot.
Keelan Cole, Jets ($6 million): Has had a bad run of QBs and the Patriots might think there's more than meets the eye here. Type of guy to replace N'Keal Harry and fill out the WR room.
DaeSean Hamilton, Broncos (street free agent): The fourth-round pick in 2018 has always had potential, but never found his stride in Denver with just 81 catches in three seasons before missing last year with a torn knee ligament suffered in an off-site, offseason workout. If healthy, he'd be a viable inside option but he's a taller slot.
Note: Dallas' Amari Cooper is still on their roster, but I do not see him as a fit for the Patriots. He's soft and on the downside. Would depend on the value.
TRADE RECEIVERS
Robby Anderson, Panthers ($10 million base): Belichick has coveted him a long time and he should - despite a rough run of QBs and teams, Anderson is a good player who would be more productive here. Those that turn their noses up at Anderson must have forgotten the Wes Welker trade. Trade for Anderson, given him a one-year extension and the cap hit year one would be minimal.
Brandin Cooks, Texans ($12.5 million base): He was productive here and it would surprise if they wanted to go to that price, but if Cooks wanted back and was interested in a lower-cost extension, a reunion can't be ruled out.
Jarvis Landry, Browns ($14.3 million base): I'm sure Cleveland would like to save the cash with Landry in the final year of his deal so the price would not be high. Bit of a declining player, but Belichick certainly knows him well.
Marvin Jones, Jaguars ($4.95 million base): Not sure he has much of a ceiling at 31, but he's still productive and would fill out the room.
Andy Isabella, Cardinals ($1.1 million base): Arizona has been trying to give the UMass product away for the last year. There have been no takers for the player who is an outside receiver in a slot body.
FREE-AGENT LINEBACKERS
Foyesade Olokun, Falcons ($10 million): The Robinson of linebackers in that he might be worth extending the wallet a bit for. Not many know his name, but he's fast and would be an immediate upgrade. Will be 27.
De'Vondre Campbell, Packers (PFF AAV: $9 million): As opposed to the next name on this list, he's still in his prime, has speed and can cover. In other words, exactly what the Patriots are looking for.
Bobby Wagner, Seahawks ($8 million): Don't see it as a fit now that Wagner is 32 with a lot of miles. He's on the downside. Would he be an upgrade over Dont'a Hightower? Yes, but not much. They'd probably rather bring Jamie Collins back. Doesn't fit their profile for what they're looking to do.
FREE-AGENT CORNERBACKS
Stephon Gilmore, Panthers (PFF AAV: $12.5 million): The player might not entertain it because of what went down, but Gilmore is a green player - if you have the most, he'll listen. If Gilmore is healthy, he'd be a cheaper upgrade over JC Jackson.
Carlton Davis, Buccaneers ($16.5 million): He's going to rival JC Jackson for highest-paid corner, so it's likely a pipe dream. Their type of player, though.
Casey Hayward, Raiders ($6.5 million): He's only been in Cover 3 schemes so a Patriots connection is doubtful, but do they think he has man potential at a lower cost? They did go for Jalen Mills under similar circumstances.
Patrick Peterson, Cardinals ($6 million): His better days are behind him at 32, but he might be a worthy one-year stopgap.
Levi Wallace, Bills ($7.5 million): Is a better zone corner and if the Patriots are going that direction, he might be good value.
Kyle Fuller, Broncos ($5.75 million): A reclamation project but once had the talent to be the 14th overall pick in 2014.
Xavier Rhodes, Colts ($3 million): Similar to Peterson in that you're hoping to squeeze out another good season or two at a lower cost. Patriots kind of move.