NFL Notebook: What if the Patriots don't make many changes for 2022?

Football fans, especially those of a certain franchise that basically went to a Super Bowl every other year for 20 years and won six of them, are restless every offseason that you don't at least make the conference championship (when Tom Brady was with the Patriots, making the final four and losing was considered a failure both internally and externally).

So with the Patriots finishing 10-8 in 2021 — especially with a 1-4 close that felt like 1-15 considering some of the limp losses in important games down the stretch – most can't wait to make wholesale changes to the team going into '22. And, sure, there are some issues on the team, namely team speed, that need to be addressed.

But what if the Patriots' historic spending last offseason was, basically, the extent of their splurge? What if Bill Belichick went to the Krafts, explained how their cap space in a Covid year was a big opportunity for the team and that they should put all their eggs in the '21 offseason, even if that meant sitting out '22? Not saying that happened, but it's plausible — especially with barely any cap space ($8 million right now, before restructures and JC Jackson's $18 million franchise tag). Normally a team that endures a lot of changes in one offseason is much better in Year 2. Bill Belichick and the Patriots very well could have had a two-year plan in mind. 

So that could mean what the Patriots have right now is, largely with the draft a factor, what they will have going into 2022.

Is that so bad? What does that look like? Who is on the spot and how realistic is their improvement?

Let's take a look:

2022 OFFENSE

QB: Mac Jones
RB1: Damien Harris (contract year), Rhamondre Stevenson
3D RB: JJ Taylor
FB: Jakob Johnson/Dalton Keene
X WR: Nelson Agholor (contract year)
Slot WR: Jakobi Meyers (contract year)
Z WR: Kendrick Bourne
TE 1: Hunter Henry
TE 2: Jonnu Smith/Devin Asiasi
LT: Isaiah Wynn (contract year)
LG: Mike Onwenu/Ted Karras (FA)
C: David Andrews
RG: Shaq Mason
RT: Justin Herron/Yodny Cajuste/Onwenu

Players most on the spot: Wynn, Agholor, Smith, Onwenu, Taylor, Herron.

Wynn, on the fifth-year option, can only be jettisoned in a trade where the other team is OK paying him $10 million. Considering his injury woes (he didn't start three games, giving him 17 missed starts in three seasons). He was more durable this year, but does that really matter? He was OK this past season but not sure that's good enough. The best hope is for Wynn, in a contract year, to be extra motivated (they were not happy with the shape he showed up in this past season) and the best version of himself. Chance of improvement: 55 percent.

Agholor wasn't bad in his first season, but he certainly didn't have an instant impact. I would put most of that on slowing bringing along a rookie QB, and the offensive having protection issues, especially early in the season. He would have also benefitted from Smith or a slot receiver being a dangerous option and a priority for the defense. Agholor is a good player and I could see him being much more productive in year two with more time to work with Jones. Chance of improvement: 75 percent.

Smith is one of the biggest question marks on this team. There's no question about his talent or effort, but it didn't work in just about every area in Year 1 (even his blocking was bad). Some guys just take longer to get acclimated — yes, more than a season — and there's no question the Patriots have financial incentive to stay the course with him (ideally they can't cut him until after 2023). But on film, Smith looks like a lost cause. If you think Smith's season had to do with how he was used ... it's laughable. But game film is not everything. The coaches see him in practice all season and that's often more valuable. We don't know how he did in practice. Chance of improvement: 35 percent.

Onwenu, after a great rookie season, got benched for Ted Karras at left guard, and then went to the bench for good once Trent Brown returned at RT. Onwenu is a good player, but guard might be too fast for him. Probably the best option is for the team to re-sign Karras at LG, develop someone there like '21 draft pick Will Sherman, and start Onwenu at RT while bidding Trent Brown adieu. Chance of improvement: 80 percent.

Taylor impressed enough to earn some playing time early but after the fumble, he was missing in action. He's talented and is a playmaker, and the Patriots need more of that. Hopefully he's matured in his play to the see can depend on him with James White coming back from injury. Chance of improvement: 55 percent.

Herron played really well at LT in the final two games of the season and at least gives the team options should some players not return. There's no reason why he shouldn't be a solid starter at RT, if need be. Chance of improvement: 75 percent.

If there was one spot I would upgrade: Meyers at slot receiver.

Love Meyers and he has a spot on this team, but this offense and Jones needs an Edelman to move the chains on a more consistent basis. Meyers needs to be the 4th WR. This spot could be upgraded through the draft, but it's likely going to come from free agency with a Braxton Berrios type (why can't we find players like that?).

How realistic is this? Very.

Despite everyone being obsessed with weapons, the Patriots rarely see it that way. There should be substantial improvement internally with so many changes in 2021. Of course, that's setting aside the coaching staff issues. If they bring everyone back and there is little improvement, that's on the coaches and not the talent. The Patriots should be a lot better with a real slot receiver, Karras back at LG, Onwenu at RT, more out of No. 2 TE, and that doesn't take many assets. 

2022 DEFENSE

Edge: Matthew Judon
NT: Davon Godchaux (contract year)
DT: Lawrence Guy/Christian Barmore
Edge: Josh Uche/Ronnie Perkins/Kyle Van Noy (contract year)
LB: Raekwon McMillan (contract year)
LB: Cam McGrone
CB1: JC Jackson (contract year)
CB2: Jalen Mills
Slot CB: Jonathan Jones
FS: Devin McCourty/Myles Bryant
SS: Adrian Phillips/Kyle Dugger

Players most on the spot: Godchaux, Uche, McGrone.

Pay no attention to PFF. Godchaux was not what the Patriots expected this past season. Not only did he get demoted from NT for stretches, he was largely ineffective and the team often got better play from Carl Davis. As opposed to other free agents, Godchaux had no excuses for not being better (he played in the same defense in Miami for Brian Flores) and he often just looked too small for this scheme. Patriots would need to trade him to have a net cap savings. He could be better in a contract year, but that seems unlikely. Chance of improvement: 25 percent.

Uche has been a fine player for this team, especially just as a pass rusher, since his rookie year. They just choose not play him over veteran players. The coaches obviously don't think he sets the edge well enough. His position coach, Steve Belichick, needs to figure out a way to make Uche into a player. Talent and smarts are not an issue. This defense would be much better with him on the field. Same with Perkins. Figure it out. Chance of improvement: 75 percent.

McGrone lost his rookie season from an ACL injury that the Patriots looked past enough to draft him in the 5th round. That would make him a 2nd or 3rd round pick in most years. He's very small at 6-feet, 235 pounds, but he could be a better and smarter Elandon Roberts in the middle of this defense, and Roberts was a good player here. If McGrone could have an instant impact and stay on the field, this defense would be a lot better and fast. But the Patriots don't have a great history with injured young players. Chance of improvement: 95 percent (from being injured).

If there was one spot I would upgrade: No. 2 corner (Mills' spot).

Mills was largely brought here to be a safety but had to play CB with the Stephon Gilmore situation. He is not a good man cover corner and he limits what they can do on defense. The best-case scenario for the Patriots in '22 is to have Jackson play on the tag, upgrade Mills' spot, and Jones is fully healthy. Now they can do some things in coverage.

How realistic is this? Not very.

This scenario would call for Belichick to jettison a lot of veterans and have confidence in young players at multiple spots ... LOL. That's a good one.

We're much more likely seeing guys like Van Noy, Hightower and Bentley playing a lot of snaps while young players just sit on the bench. The defense needs much more talent than the offense to improve. I don't have much confidence we'll see much of that. 

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. Good on the Steelers and coach Mike Tomlin for hiring Brian Flores as a senior defensive assistant/linebackers coach. Not only does it look good, but Flores is really good with the front seven and will bring great pressure ideas to DC Teryl Austin. They'll be a better defense because of Flores.

2. If you believe this from PFF ...

... remember this is the same outfit that has Mike Onwenu as the 84th-ranked player in the entire NFL despite being benched for Karras and not being in the top six of Patriots offensive linemen. If Onwenu was that good, Patriots coaches would have found a spot for him.

3. Actual Patriots players in the top 100:

35. Shaq Mason
71. JC Jackson
75. David Andrews
90. Adrian Phillips

No Matthew Judon, which just shows how much he fell during the season. I still would put Judon in the top 100, and Barmore deserved consideration as well. No issues with the choices.

4. Key offseason dates:

March 1: Scouting combine starts
March 8, 4 p.m.: Franchise tag/RFA tender deadline
March 14, Noon: Legal tampering period starts.
March 16, 4 p.m.: New league year and free agency begins.
March 27-30: League meetings
April 4: Teams with new coaches can start offseason workouts.
April 18: All teams can start offseason workouts.
April 22: RFA offer sheet deadline.
April 27: RFA right of first refusal deadline.
April 28-30: NFL Draft. 

5. Patriots have three restricted free agents this offseason: Jakobi Meyers, Gunner Olszewski and Jakob Johnson. All three were undrafted so that will limit the Patriots' tender options:

Compensation: First-round pick.
Amount: $5.562 million

Compensation: Second-round pick.
Amount: $3.986 million.

Compensation: None (right of first refusal only).
Amount: $2.433 million.

Could see a second-round tender for only Meyers, and ROFR only on the other two. Olszewski is a tough call. Would depend on whether they think he can really contribute as a receiver.