NHL Notebook: Revisiting some of our bold preseason predictions for Bruins/NHL

We’re officially past the midway point of the 2021-22 NHL season, so what better time for me to eat crow and look back on the many bold predictions I tossed out regarding the Bruins and the NHL back in September.

As you could expect, some of my proclamations are looking pretty good these days. … Others, well — not so much. 

Let’s dive in. 

Bruins hit new scoring milestones on top line

Going into the year, I penciled in both David Pastrnak and Brad Marchand to reach the 100-point scoring threshold — becoming the first B’s team since the 1992-93 season to have two players hit the century mark. 

Currently, it seems like both all-world wingers are set to fall just short — with Marchand on pace to finish with 93 points and Pastrnak slated for 82 points in 82 games.

Now, granted, given both 63 + 88’s O-zone prowess, coupled with a relatively easier strength of schedule in the second half — it’s not out of the question for both forwards' baseline numbers to spike. 

Had it not been for Marchand’s three-game suspension earlier this season for slew-footing Oliver Ekman-Larsson, he likely would still be on pace to break 100 points, while Pastrnak’s slow start set him back from his pursuit of 50 goals.

Pastrnak does have a lot more ground to make up when compared to Marchand, but given Pastrank’s recent scoring resurgence (14 goals, 22 points in his last 15 games), it’s not out of the question that the B’s top sniper makes a late push for 100 points.

And even if Marchand finishes around 95 points and Pastrnak caps the year with about 40 or so goals, the Bruins will be more than happy with such offensive production.

Charlie McAvoy wins the Norris Trophy

As we noted last week during our midseason grades, McAvoy has been spectacular this season — with the B’s franchise D-man logging heavy minutes, posting shutdown D-zone metrics and putting himself on pace for 53 points over 76 games.

McAvoy will absolutely be in the Norris conversation, and when you factor in his defensive merits and physicality, you could make the case that he should be a lock as a finalist. But with Cale Makar and Adam Fox stuffing the stat sheet and — Victor Hedman in the midst of one of the best seasons of his career — McAvoy is going to be facing some steep competition in a field of elite blueliners.

Taylor Hall scores 65+ points

Much like Pastrnak, it might be best to break up an assessment of Hall’s season into quarters, instead of a first and second half. Because even though Hall’s current stat line maps out to 55 points over the span of a full season, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the winger’s production continues to spike as he earns more reps with Pastrnak.

After posting 14 points over his first 26 games of the season, Hall’s game has flourished since Bruce Cassidy’s lineup switcheroo — with the left wing posting 15 points over his last 17 games. Again, he might fall short of the scoring totals I had for him, but the B’s will take the Hall that they’ve seen over the last month of the season.

A McAvoy/Grzelcyk pairing is reunited by mid-November

Despite Cassidy’s efforts to roll with a Forbort-McAvoy pairing out of the gate (a duo that has been outscored, 12-3, during 5v5 play together), this switcheroo was all but inevitable.

And even though the case could be made that the Bruins still need to add another legit top-four presence on their D corps, the B’s do at least have one super-pairing in place when McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk skate together. 

In total, during the 296:07 of even-strength ice time that Grzelcyk-McAvoy have logged together this season, the Bruins have outscored opponents, 21-9, outshot them by a 205-104 margin and held a 62-29 edge in high-danger scoring chances. 

Not too shabby. 

Jeremy Swayman wins the 7th Player Award ... but it should go to Erik Haula

Between his on-ice potential, a routine of playing hopscotch on the blue line and his bromance with Linus Ullmark, Jeremy Swayman is already a very, very popular guy among fan circles.

But with his reps up in the NHL ranks far from a guarantee moving forward this season with Tuukka Rask’s return, it remains to be seen if Swayman is even a viable candidate at year’s end for the 7th Player Award.

Now, if we looked at these predictions back around the holiday break, this would have been a TOUGH look placing Haula as a potential 7th Player Award candidate. But Haula has been a revelation since getting slotted up at 2C — posting 11 points over his last 15 games.

I still think there’s a fair amount of skepticism when it comes to Haula as your 2C entering the postseason. But among a large field of newcomers, Haula and Tomas Nosek are making the best case for the fan-voted accolade.

Jake DeBrusk pots 20+ goals

What a roller-coaster ride this entire season has been for DeBrusk and the Bruins. Even though DeBrusk’s production has improved as of late (seven points in his last 13 games), it does seem as though his stats are going to dip below our projected scoring totals for him.

That being said, it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest if DeBrusk’s totals do soar once placed in a potential top-six role (and handed regular power-play minutes) on another club. The question is — when does said trade finally come to fruition? 

The Seattle Kraken rank in lower third of scoring, but still punch tickets to playoffs

Well, I got the lack of scoring right (2.61 goals per game - 25th in NHL). 

But punching their ticket to the playoffs? Welp. 

While Ron Francis’ showing in the expansion draft and his subsequent roster construction did raise plenty of eyebrows, the case could be made that the Kraken had the personnel to grind out points at a steady clip — especially with Philipp Grubauer and Chris Driedger anchoring their goalie corps.

Have to say, I think Grubauer sure misses that Avalanche defense in front of him, because Seattle’s $35.4 million pickup has been absolutely dreadful so far this season (12-17-0, .887 save percentage).

Thank goodness this team didn’t scoop up guys like Vladimir Tarasenko when they had the chance — even if they were just going to become trade chips down the road. What a mess from Francis. 

Jakub Lauko pushes Trent Frederic out of fourth-line spot by December

Lauko (who has once again dealt with some injury issues down in Providence) has yet to make the jump up to the NHL ranks, but half of this prediction still stands — because even though Frederic should be cleared for game action coming out of the break, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be penciled right back into the lineup.

Even though Frederic offers a unique blend of size and snarl, his lack of offensive pop (5 points in 24 games) and late arrivals in the O-zone have opened the door for guys like Anton Blidh to leapfrog him on the depth chart.

Perhaps that increased competition will help get the most out of a guy in Frederic, but the 23-year-old forward needs to show a lot more to justify regular reps on the Bs checking corps. 

Rangers lead NHL in fighting majors

After Tom Wilson dismantled the Blueshirts last season, one had to think that New York was going to goon things up in 2021-22 — especially after beefing up their roster with additions like Ryan Reaves, Jarred Tinordi, Barclay Goodrow, Patrik Nemeth and Sammy Blais.

And yet, even though guys like Reaves have added some snarl to the lineup, the Rangers have been model citizens, all things considered — ranking 16th among NHL teams with 12 scraps on the season. The Bruins actually rank in the top-10 with 15 fights so far in 2021-22, while the Predators pace the pack with 29 bouts.

Islanders return to Eastern Conference Finals … again

Uhhhh, whoops.

Yes, the Islanders might have been done in early on this season with some horrid luck due to COVID, but be it several players regressing or free-agent additions just not panning out — this squad just doesn’t seem to have it this season at all. 

Nick Ritchie scores 6 goals in first 2 weeks of the season

Not quite!

Despite earning some top-six reps out of the gate with Toronto, Ritchie failed to stick — posting just three assists and zero goals in his first 21 games. Seems like the Bruins made the right call by not qualifying him this past offseason. 

Both the Capitals and Penguins fail to make the playoffs

Another big ol’ whiff on my part — with the Penguins and Capitals currently slotted in at third place in the Metro and in the first Wild-Card spot, respectively. 

Have to say, even with the sizable question marks in net with Tristan Jarry, the rest of Pittsburgh’s lineup absolutely terrifies me. They’ve hit on a home run on just about every low-risk pickup they snagged last offseason. 

David Krejci doesn’t return …

Well, this one was unfortunately right on the money — much to the chagrin of many B’s fans.

Even though the narrative of Krejci returning to the States for one last run with the old guard sure would make for a storybook ending — reality is often disappointing. And when you factor in the waivers that Krejci would need to clear in order to land back on Boston’s roster, this scenario is pretty much moot at this point.

Alas. 

… but Tuukka Rask does return — after signing a league-minimum deal

Again, right on the money. It might not be league minimum, but Rask absolutely did his club a solid by inking a one-year, $1 million contract — with a prorated salary of $545,000.

Granted, this development wasn’t exactly much of a surprise when it was finally announced back in January — given the optics of Rask practicing at Warrior Ice Arena for months.

What has been a bit of a surprise — for all parties involved — is Rask’s lingering lower-body injury, which is now complicating an already tangled web when it comes to the B’s goalie corps.

Jack Eichel doesn’t play in any regular-season games

Well, my guess that Eichel would follow a similar route as Nikita Kucherov and become an LTIR weapon deployed in the postseason likely isn’t going to come to fruition — with the North Chelmsford native reportedly getting closer and closer to return this month.

Still, I will absolutely do a victory lap when it comes to predicting Eichel’s landing spot in Vegas. It just made way too much sense for all parties involved. 

Connor McDavid cracks 130 points

Alas, it looks like McDavid is *only* on pace for 117 points this season. Ho hum. 

McDavid is going to rack up triple-digit scoring totals year in and year out. The real question is how much longer the NHL’s top star can handle the mediocrity up in Edmonton. 

Bruins upgrade right side of defense at trade deadline

Most of the discourse surrounding Boston’s efforts to improve its blue line usually starts with a top-flight, left-shot D like Jakob Chychrun, but it wouldn’t come as much of a surprise if the B’s do indeed look at shoring up their depth by adding another stalwart on the right side.

It certainly won’t steal headlines like a Chychrun mega-deal would, but the B’s could really round out their roster by targeting a heftier piece like Scott Mayfield from the floundering Islanders.

Still, as we saw last year when the Lightning had to relinquish a first-round pick and third-round pick to pry David Savard from Columbus via a three-team swap, even a defense-first option like Mayfield won’t come at a cheap price. 

Bruins trade for Tomas Hertl

Granted, we’ll have to wait a bit longer to see if this prediction comes to fruition (it’s bananas that the trade deadline isn’t until MARCH 21ST this season). 

But given all of the trade whispers that we’ve heard so far this season when it comes to top-six pivots like Hertl and J.T. Miller — I’d be pretty surprised if the Bruins don’t emerge from the deadline with at least another center entrenched on the roster.

Jeremy Swayman is a Calder Trophy finalist — in field dominated by goalies

Even if Swayman was going to remain up in the NHL ranks all season, it sure seems like the NHL’s Rookie of the Year award is going to get doled out to one of Trevor Zegras, Seth Jarvis, Lucas Raymond or Moritz Seider.

So much for the guess that the Calder field was going to be anchored by guys like Swayman, Spencer Knight (.898 save percentage over 18 games) and Alex Nedeljkovic (who, granted, has been a workhorse for the rebuilding Red Wings).

Still, even with some expected rookie bumps in the road, the Bruins have to be encouraged by Swayman’s baseline production so far this season (8-6-2, .916 save percentage). 

Boston finishes second in the Atlantic

Considering the gap between the Bruins and the teams currently outside of the playoff picture (Detroit is nine points behind the B’s with four more games played), it’s a safe bet that the Bruins will, at the very least, punch their ticket to the postseason.

But leapfrogging two teams in an absolutely stacked Atlantic Divison? Now, that’s a big ask. 

While there’s a chance that the Bruins (55 points in 43 games) might be able to catch up to the Maple Leafs (61 points in 42 games), both the Panthers (69 points in 47 games) and Lightning (66 points in 46 games) look like wagons — and might be able to pull away from the pack.

A wild-card spot might not be where most fans envisioned the 2021-22 Bruins would land entering the postseason, but if it helps avoid the minefield that is the Atlantic Division … perhaps it’s the best course for the B’s to take. 

Toronto loses in the first round again

Toronto is once again a very, very good team this season. Great, even. Still … I’m not buying this being the year the Leafs finally break through. 

Tampa Bay places first in Atlantic 

Ultimately, I think the Panthers pull away from the pack and take home the Atlantic Division crown — and potentially the Presidents’ Trophy. But if you ask me which team I fear most in the East? It’s still Tampa. 

Star talent, a winning pedigree with heaps of experience, good coaching and … unlike a few other contenders, elite goaltending in place with Andrei Vasilevskiy. 

Bruins fall to Vegas in Stanley Cup Final

Again … a bit too early to see if this one comes true — although it sure seems like a pretty far-fetched proclamation at this point, especially when looking at the numerous other juggernauts across the league. 

Still, until we see what moves Don Sweeney and the B’s make ahead of the deadline, it’s a bit too early to completely dismiss Boston’s odds of putting together another deep Cup run. But don't get it twisted — there’s a lot of work that needs to be done — and a lot that has to go Boston’s way.

Still feel good about my Vegas pick — especially once Eichel returns to the lineup. That team is going to be absolutely terrifying. 

Patrice Bergeron returns on one-year deal with Boston

Have to say, this one still remains very tough to read. 

Granted, it sure doesn’t seem like Bergeron’s game is slipping at all — with the 36-year-old pivot on pace for a 70-point campaign and another legitimate claim for his sought-after fifth Selke Trophy. 

Still, it sure seems like Bergeron is going to take his time when the decision nears as to whether or not he wants to return for yet another grueling 82-game campaign in 2022-23. 

The Bruins sure hope that the future Hall of Famer has at least another season left in the tank.

Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, HockeyViz and JFreshHockey.