A deal for J.T. Miller could kill two birds with one stone for Bruins

Maybe it’s just the byproduct of growing up in a town where sarcasm and prickly retorts are welcomed more than a warm greeting on the street. Or maybe it’s because they’ve been burned one too many times before when it comes to their local hockey team. 

Whatever the case may be, Bruins fans are naturally conditioned to expect the worst in most situations.

And yet, for as much as flashbacks of the Dave Lewis chapter or even more prolonged stretches of futility jostle around in the minds of B’s fans when it comes to the post-Bergeron era, the truth of the matter is that Boston should still be buoyed by a pretty solid core in the coming years. 

Be it elite talents already up on the roster in Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, Taylor Hall and Charlie McAvoy, to promising pieces further down the pipeline like Jeremy Swayman, Mason Lohrei and Fabian Lysell — there’s at least the skeleton of a competitive roster that should be in place for the foreseeable future. 

But, of course, the Bruins aren’t looking to just be “competitive” in the next few years, not with guys like Pastrnak and McAvoy approaching the primes of their careers. To pass the torch from one contention window to the next, the Bruins are going to need more help down the middle — be it for the stretch run in 2022 and especially in the years ahead if Patrice Bergeron hangs up his skates.

Even though Erik Haula has been a very pleasant surprise (10 points in last 13 games) since getting slotted up to 2C with Pastrnak and Hall, there’s still a good amount of skepticism about whether or not that configuration offers the best chance for Boston to consistently land punches at 5v5 play during the postseason — especially considering Haula could bring value on the wing if pushed down to a third-line role with Charlie Coyle.

And as Don Sweeney acknowledged before the 2021-22 season even commenced, the Bruins’ plans down the middle in the coming years is … well, they haven’t really settled on one yet. 

"Fortunately, we still have a No. 1 center in Patrice and the level of play that he upholds,” Sweeney said of Boston’s group of centers. “Then it's got to be a little bit by committee and growth. We've got Jack (Studnicka) there. And if we can't do it internally, we're going to have to look externally. It's an important position. We identified it even through the draft with (Brett) Harrison.

“You have to have strength up the middle of the ice. A lot of teams would identify that and we're no different in that regard. There's always a level of exposure and fear that you might not be deep enough. But again, we tried to address it in free agency and bringing in players that can play several positions. And the guys are excited. Ultimately, that's the path we had to take and the results will dictate whether or not we're gonna do it well."

Considering the middling returns we’ve seen so far from Studnicka, it sure seems like the writing is on the wall for Boston going the trade/free agency route to bolster its center depth. 

And if the Bruins are indeed looking to kill two birds with one stone when it comes to both upgrading this current roster and putting a key cog in place for contention in 2022-23 and potentially beyond, Vancouver’s J.T. Miller sure makes plenty of sense. 

We’ve discussed the 28-year-old Miller as a potential trade target for the B’s earlier this season.

But with the Canucks still staring at an uphill climb back into playoff positioning, it seems as though the trade whispers surrounding Miller are getting a bit louder, with Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli listing the Bruins as one of the teams looking to pry Miller out of Vancouver — along with the New York Rangers, Minnesota Wild and Calgary Flames.

In terms of a fit, Miller makes plenty of sense as a legitimate top-six pivot that can be entrenched in said role for the next 4-5 years.  

Yes, Haula has exceeded expectations in his new spot, but Miller has a much more established track record and a much higher ceiling as far as his offensive capabilities, surpassing the 45-point scoring threshold five times in his career —including a career-high 72 points in 2019-20.

A dependable two-way forward throughout his time with both the Rangers and Lightning, Miller has blossomed into a legit scoring force since arriving in Vancouver — posting 157 points over 161 games.  

If you’re looking for proven 5v5 scoring pop outside of your top line, adding a player like Miller to your roster stands as a pretty surefire solution — with the veteran standing in the 80th percentile of forwards in even-strength offense and the 86th percentile in primary assists per 60 minutes of play (per TopDownHockey). Not too shabby, considering his quality of competition percentile of 96% means that he’s routinely producing against some daunting matchups.

Even though he’s not much of a shooter (his 5.12 shots per 60 minutes at 5v5 play ranks 319th out of the 411 NHL forwards with at least 200 minutes of 5v5 TOI this season), you’re not necessarily looking for a sniper on a line that will have two wingers flanking him in Hall and Pastrnak.

Add in the size and physical play that Miller offers (6-foot-1, 218 pounds) and his special-teams versatility (3:37 average power-play TOI / 2:01 average shorthanded TOI), and it’s hard not to like what Miller could offer the Bruins, especially if they’re looking to put themselves over the top.

Yes, Miller may not have the game-breaking, O-zone skill or ceiling of another sought-after trade target like Tomas Hertl. But where Miller might stand as a more preferable target for the B’s is due in large part to his contract.

Be it Hertl or Miller, it will likely take a haul for any contender to deal for them, but Hertl (even if he might be the better player) offers a much higher risk as a true rental — with the 28-year-old pivot setting himself up for a MAJOR payday this summer as a UFA.

If the Bruins did acquire Hertl in the next few months, they would either need Bergeron to retire or sign at WELL below his true value in order to make the money work for a new Hertl deal, which seems destined to ring up at around $8 million per year, at the minimum. No easy task. 

Acquiring Miler makes things a bit easier in the short term, with the forward under contract through next season at a more palatable $5.25 million cap hit. 

Yes, the Bruins will still need to do some cap gymnastics in 2023-24 with Pastrnak due for a new deal and Miller hitting UFA status, but with other contracts coming off the books like John Moore, Nick Foligno, Craig Smith, Tomas Nosek and Haula — the B’s are better equipped to handle a spending spree that summer, as opposed to shelling out the big bucks in 2022 with a Hertl mega-deal. 

Of course, given both Miller’s top-six pedigree and the added security of having him in the fold for at least the 2022-23 season, the cost to acquire him is likely going to be steep — with Seravalli noting that the return for Vancouver “ could end up being a little more than a (first-round pick) and a highly touted prospect.”

Quite the ask — and falls in line with some of the hard truths that we combed over last weekend in terms of what the Bruins might have to face when it comes to adding legit talent to this team.

Still, even if Boston must relinquish draft capital and a highly touted piece in order to acquire Miller, adding him to the mix does manage to cross a couple of things off Sweeney’s to-do list. 

Not only does Miller raise the ceiling of this current B’s team, but he significantly strengthens the B’s center pipeline in the coming years.

If Bergeron does call it quits at the end of this year? You at least have one proven top-six pivot in place — rather than …. Charlie Coyle and Jack Stundicka.

And if Bergeron does want to keep it going for another season or two, it’s hard to knock a Bergeron-Miller-Coyle-Nosek structure in place for 2022-23.

Even for a pessimistic Bruins fan, acquiring a player like Miller sure seems like a no-brainer — and an easy way for Boston to pry this contention window open for at least one more season. 

Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, HockeyViz and JFreshHockey.