In hockey circles, Thanksgiving means a whole lot more than turkey, football and reluctantly taking part in that morning 5K that the rest of your family signed you up for.
By the time the annual U.S. holiday rolls around, roughly a quarter of an 82-game regular season has been completed. And while a lot can change between the tail end of November and April, there’s still plenty that can be gleaned about a team's fate based on how it's faring by the time Turkey Day arrives.
From 2013-2018, 62 of the 80 teams that were in the postseason picture at Thanksgiving eventually punched their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final Playoffs — equalling out to about 77.5%. Those stand as pretty solid odds.
(And if you Bruins fans reeling after Friday’s loss to the Rangers need some reassurances, the Bruins were technically in the playoff picture on Thanksgiving Day — holding onto the second Wild-Card spot by a slim margin over the Penguins by virtue of points percentage.)
NHL teams in playoff position on Thanksgiving Night have ended up making the playoffs 77% of the time in the salary cap era.
— HockeyStatMiner (@HockeyStatMiner) November 21, 2021
Notably that’s 77% of the time for both the four-division (74/96) and six-division (86/112) formats.
*excluding shortened seasons
**going by Pts% not Pts
Of course, in a sport as unpredictable as hockey, there are plenty of outliers when it comes to Thanksgiving standings and just how much stock you should put into where a respective team is.
Given the recent COVID-influenced cancellations and late starts that have impacted the last few campaigns, the last legitimate season worthy of examining was in 2018-19 — which featured a playoff slate vastly different from what was mapped out back in November.
Back in Thanksgiving 2018, the Sabres, Canadiens, Wild and Oilers were all in the playoff picture — only to eventually be supplanted by the Hurricanes, Penguins, Golden Knights and Blues.
Four teams getting knocked out of contention does fall more or less in line with the 77.5% rate, although a team like the Blues — who sat near the cellar of the NHL standings in November 2018 — does serve as a reminder of how quickly fortunes can change in this league.
And yet, while it’s to be expected that a few clubs on the outside looking in at the playoff picture this past Thursday will inevitably make their push up the standings (a healthy Penguins, Islanders or Golden Knights club, perhaps?), there already seems to be a fair share of cannon fodder lingering near the bottom of the barrel — with multiple teams poised to become sellers at the deadline.
Of course, there’s no guarantee that the Bruins are necessarily going to be buyers in the coming months — given both the (early) underwhelming returns on the ice and risk of further depleting an already arid prospect pool by moving more draft capital.
But if the Bruins do begin gaining some traction in the standings and start shopping for a missing piece or two this spring, it already looks like there will be plenty of rosters worth perusing as many clubs start waving the white flag and look ahead to the future.
And chief among them has to be the Canucks.
And when it comes to sorting through the current misfortune plaguing Vancouver — well, who could have seen it coming?
*whispers* Just about everyone except the Canucks' front office, apparently.
After Jim Benning fiscally strangled his club by tossing out hefty contracts to guys like Loui Eriksson (6 years, $36 million), Tyler Myers (5 years, $30 million), Jay Beagle (4 years, $12 million) and Antoine Rousell (4 years, $12 million), he finally managed to rid himself of those deals by moving Eriksson, Beagle and Rousell to the Coyotes this summer.
And all it took to accomplish such a feat was ... taking on a majority of Oliver Ekman-Larsson’s albatross contract, along with dealing the No. 9 pick in the 2021 NHL Draft to Arizona. Even with Conor Garland included as part of that package deal, that’s a major oooooof for Vancouver, because it sure doesn’t seem like Ekman-Larsson has a lot left in the tank. And, of course, that cap crunch remains with OEL's contract in place.
Add in a porous defense (3.29 goals against per game) and a number of key cogs woefully underperforming (Elias Pettersson has just three goals in 21 games), and you’ve got a Canucks team set to rot away at least a few seasons of this core’s prime due to a poorly constructed, cap-crunched roster.
Gross.
And while it’s unlikely that the Canucks move franchise cornerstones like Pettersson or Quinn Hughes as it looks to build ahead for the future, Vancouver does feature a number of intriguing top-six players that seem destined to move once the firesale eventually gets underway.
Given some of the shortcomings on this current B’s roster, a top-4 fixture on defense might seem like the most pressing need — but a legit second-line center (for the right price) is also desperately needed. Because even though Charlie Coyle has actually produced at a steady clip, the ceiling of this Bruins team is significantly raised if a healthy Coyle is playing at this level and elevating a third line, rather than remaining in the top-six unit and asking one of Erik Haula, Trent Frederic or Jack Studnicka to take the reins at 3C.
And given Vancouver’s need to move legit assets without sacrificing the future, it sure wouldn’t come as a surprise if the Canucks listen to offers for either J.T. Miller or captain Bo Horvat — two legit pivots that would make an instant impact on a team like the Bruins.
A young scoring winger like Brock Boeser (who is set to get paid as an RFA this summer) could also be moved in the coming months, but loading up on wingers isn’t going to maximize the offensive output of this Bruins forward corps if the personnel down the middle is stuck in this current state.
Among these three, Miller seems like the most likely candidate to get moved — and if that’s the case, the Bruins should be all over it (so long as they remain in the playoff picture).
An established two-way player with plenty of playoff experience, a favorable contract ($5.25 million AAV through 2023) and legit top-six scoring pop (137 points in 143 career games with Vancouver), Miller would alleviate a lot of issues in Boston’s lineup, especially by creating the domino effect of Coyle moving back down to 3C.
Draft capital, top-line prospects outside of the AHL ranks and NHL talent like Jake DeBrusk would likely have to be moved in order to acquire a player of Miller's caliber. But given both the immediate needs on this current Bruins roster — coupled with the looming issue of Boston's center pipeline with Patrice Bergeron not getting any younger — acquiring a 28 or 26-year-old center like Miller or Horvat, respectively, would make plenty of sense.
Given both the personnel that could be moved — coupled with a desperate Benning, who has a … spotty ... track record when it comes to striking deals — the Canucks sure seem poised to be this year’s kingmakers in terms of bestowing top-six talent to other clubs around the league.
Of course, there are plenty of other teams that seem destined to sell before the deadline, be it the cellar-dwelling Kraken, a San Jose club that might feature the deadline's top prize in Tomas Hertl, the rebuilding Arizona Coyotes or a few more unlikely trade partners with Boston in both the Sabres and Canadiens.
We’ll be sure to examine more potential sellers in the coming months, although I’ll note once again that there’s no guarantee that the Bruins are going to be buyers — or that they even have the assets available to realistically bid for a top-six forward like Miller or a top-four defenseman.
Those questions will all be answered in due time.
But the trade market often takes on a mind of its own once desperation starts to sink in around this league, and if the Bruins do find themselves in a position to add to this core, teams like the Canucks are ripe for the picking — so long as Don Sweeney and Co. are willing to pay up.
Ducks shaking off "seller" label?
Prior to the start of this season, if you asked me what team made the most sense as a potential trading partner for the Bruins — it’d have to be the Ducks.
Not only did the Ducks’ potential rebuilding schedule fall right in line with a contending team like the Bruins — who would be more than happy to take a few veteran regulars off of their hands — but Anaheim’s rumored trade assets primarily featured top-six talent and blue-line depth: two areas of need for the B's.
Need a top-four D? With Mattias Ekholm staying put in Nashville, Hampus Lindholm sure seemed like a fantastic fall-back option — with the Swedish blueliner four years younger than Ekholm and potentially boasting a higher ceiling.
Need blue-line depth further down the lineup? Perhaps Josh Manson could be had for the right price.
And while the Bruins should prioritize centers if they’re looking to add up front, Rickard Rakell is a familiar trade candidate with 25+ goal potential so long as he remains healthy.
But much to the Bruins’ dismay, it sure looks like Anaheim isn’t going to be selling any time soon.
Thanks to some serious strides made by young players like rookies Trevor Zegras (6 goals, 14 points in 19 games), Jamie Drysdale (10 points in 21 games) and 24-year-old Troy Terry (13 goals, 23 points in 20 games) — coupled with bounce-back campaigns from a slew of veterans — the Ducks suddenly look to be well ahead of schedule with a 11-7-3 record out the gate.
And with that core of Zegras, Drysdale and others primed to get better and better as the years go on, the Ducks might be looking to retain a guy like Lindholm as opposed to moving him for assets.
As we noted at the beginning of this notebook, a lot can change between now and the deadline — and a team surpassing expectations (especially due to young contributors) is always at risk for a steep drop-off at some point.
If such a downturn does come, the Bruins will be watching with great interest.
Marchand vs. Panarin
Brad Marchand was quick to note that he's had plenty of things tossed at him on the ice during his time in junior, the AHL and over a decade-plus tenure with Boston.
But prior to Friday's matinee with New York, the proven B's pest couldn't remember a time in which a glove sailed his way — especially when chucked from a fellow player.
So what prompted Rangers star winger Artemi Panarin to toss his glove at Marchand in the closing seconds of Friday's game?
From the bench, Artemiy Panarin throws his glove at Brad Marchand #NYR pic.twitter.com/bQCkC7iI0F
— Shayna (@hayyyshayyy) November 26, 2021
Panarin, who was fined $5,000 by the NHL on Saturday for the infraction, said that the reason he lost his cool was due to Russian-related insults that Marchand hurled at him.
Marchand's take on the conversation?
“We were just asking each other how Thanksgiving dinner was. He didn’t like what I ate."
