Representatives for the owners and the players met Tuesday for the fourth time since the start of the Dec. 2 lockout to discuss some of the key economic issues. By all indications, next-to-no progress was made.
Some thoughts on where things stand as we ease into February, a month that usually signals the start of spring training.
1. Forget about an on-time start to spring training.
Every franchise has/had varying dates for pitchers and catchers to report for the start of 2022 spring training, but it's generally accepted that Feb. 16 was to be the unofficial start to spring training in both Florida and Arizona.
So much for that.
The two sides have made only incremental progress in the last two months and the notion that they're suddenly going to get a deal done in the next week or so is simply not realistic.
So the start of spring training will be delayed. Remember, even when an agreement is reached, there will still be about 200 free agents unsigned, the salary arbitration process will have to get underway, teams will have to arrange for international travel for many of their players, as well as arrange for intake as the pandemic rages on.
In other words, it's already too late for the start of camps to begin on time.
2. For now, the scheduled start of the regular season is safe.
The next date to keep in mind: March 31, the start of the season.
But again, that date is somewhat irrelevant, because the season can't start without a minimum of three-plus weeks of spring training preceding it.
Position players could be game-ready in a little more than two weeks. They'd need that much time to see enough live pitching and get their timing down.
The real issue, however, is getting pitchers ready. And they'd need somewhere between three and four weeks to build up sufficient arm strength. And there's no way to get around that, no shortcuts that can be taken.
So, to reverse engineer the calendar, in order for players to be participating in games for more than three weeks, they'd have to be in camps no later than March 1. This means there would have to be an agreement in place by Feb. 20 or so.
So the two sides have less than three weeks to get a deal done.
Good luck with that.
3. The MLBPA and the players are swinging for the fences when all they need is a double.
It's generally accepted the union saw significant losses with the last collective bargaining agreement. Some argue that that could be said of the last two agreements.
Now, not surprisingly, the MLBPA is trying to make up those setbacks with a big win in the current negotiations. And that's simply not realistic.
The union and its constituents need to accept the fact that they're not going to make up lost ground in one CBA; that's going to take some time. The longer the union spends on trying to gain all that was lost, the more time is being wasted.
The owners now sit in an advantageous position. And they might be willing to make some concessions to allow the players to make some incremental gains. But they're not about to completely acquiesce here, either.
Like or not, the MLBPA needs to accept the fact that they'll only make up all of the ground lost in the next couple of agreements, and not just this one.
The longer the posturing continues, the less likely it is there will be an agreement in the coming weeks.
4. Owners have made their intentions known.
According to an industry source, the owners have let the union know that they're not willing to make significant changes to three areas: free agency, salary arbitration and revenue sharing.
Players have wisely dropped their demands for free agency after five seasons.
The MLBPA has also dropped its demands on the amount of money that owners move between teams. After initially demanding that the amount be reduced by $100 million, a more recent demand was lowered to $30 million. For now, any reduction at all seems a non-starter for the owners.
As for arbitration, much of the talks have centered around how to increase compensation for players with less than three years of service time. The union wants a bonus pool -- to be paid out from the central fund, not individual clubs -- to compensate younger players. The two sides are far apart on the size of that pool with the union at $100 million and the owners at $10 million.
5. There has been some progress made.
Some compromises have been evident on issues as diverse as expanded playoffs (MLB wants 14 teams, MLBPA says 12), the introduction of the universal DH, and other economic issues, including minimum salaries and the creation of a lottery for the draft to address tanking concerns.
But these are small gains to date, and a lot of progress has to be made, soon, or else.
Worse, there's a narrative that has gained steam in the last week that the owners would be OK with sacrificing the first month of the season, when cold weather and school schedules typically depress attendance.
If the owners are in no hurry for an agreement and believe they can "wait out'' the union, then missing the March 31 start to the season may be the last of everybody's worries.