Throughout the season, when the time has come to assess the cracks splintering across the Bruins' roster, the chart below has often served as a dependable slab of FlexTape, covering up any notion of deep-rooted flaws on Boston’s blue line.
Yes, this chart changes with each new day of the 2021-22 campaign, but the Bruins have remained in first (or close to it) for most of the season when it comes to expected goals against — with the B’s standing as the cream of the crop when it comes to limiting high-danger scoring chances for the opposition.
But metrics like expected goals are similar to FlexTape in other respects as well.
Yes, it sure looks good on paper. But in a practical setting? Well, that’s another story.
(Seriously, have you ever seen someone actually use FlexTape?)
Because for as much as concerns over the B’s defensive performance can be assuaged by looking at things such as expected goals against, those numbers probably don’t make Bruce Cassidy and the Bruins any happier following Sunday’s 6-1 debacle down in Dallas.
“We gotta be harder back there,” Cassidy said. “It starts on your backend, winning your battles, getting the puck out of your zone.. ... You got to execute at an NHL level, especially against good teams that are really pushing it and we didn't do enough of that tonight.
“On the offensive side of it, we didn't do it either — the forward group, getting pucks behind them early to establish a forecheck. I thought we were stubborn that way. So you put those two things together against a good hockey club that defends well and it was going to be an uphill battle and we just didn't figure it out.”
For as much as top-six pivots like J.T. Miller or Tomas Hertl check off plenty of boxes when it comes to potential trade targets for Boston, this recent stretch is muddying such a narrative — or at the least, making Don Sweeney’s deadline that much busier when it comes to upgrading this roster.
Because Sunday’s loss to the Stars is just the latest in a long line of concerning defensive breakdowns for the B’s — who have relinquished 28 goals during their last seven games.
So what gives?
How is it that a Bruins team that prides itself on its defensive backbone and is buoyed by some sterling underlying metrics has been dented at such a regular clip over the last few weeks?
Oftentimes, factors such as inexperience or injury are the root causes of defensive breakdowns and uncharacteristic miscues.
Yes, the B’s do have one very green blueliner in its rotation in Urho Vaakanainen. But all things considered, the 23-year-old defenseman has been Boston's most consistent performer over the last few weeks. And that’s not a good thing.
Injuries?
Losing Matt Grzelcyk for a few games was definitely a hit, especially considering how much of a cheat code the Grzelcyk-McAvoy pairing can be when both BU products are on their game (Boston holds a 200-102 edge in shots on goal in their 288:16 of ice time together).
And while McAvoy has managed to stick in the lineup, this upcoming break during the All-Star festivities likely comes as a perfect time for Boston’s top D-man, who has been plagued by a lot of uncharacteristic slip-ups and poor decision making as of late. Injuries have hurt Boston, but it's far from the primary factor in Boston’s recent woes.
(A poor decision from McAvoy jumping up in the play leads to a counter-rush — and an eventual Tyler Seguin goal).
For a large chunk of the season, the lack of quality (and consistent) goaltending has been the X-factor when it comes to the disparity between expected goals and the tangible goals that the Bruins have relinquished.
And during this recent stretch, the struggles of Tuukka Rask have played a factor in this opposing scoring salvo. But as seen during that seven-goal blowout delivered by the Hurricanes a few weeks back, even a prime Rask would have decimated with that defensive structure in front of him.
Sunday’s loss was cut from a similar cloth. Yes, Linus Ullmark was ultimately pulled from the game after coughing up four goals on 17 shots, but Cassidy wasn’t ready to put the blame on his netminder on a night where Boston’s defense routinely shot themselves in the foot or flat out didn’t execute.
"We didn't do enough in front of him. ... I think most of the goals you can't put on the goaltending,” Cassidy said. “The third one, like I said, he didn't recover, maybe fatigue was setting in. The fourth one was more lack of coverage. We get beat out of the corner, (Derek) Forbort didn't win a battle, didn't close . ... There were just too many easy opportunities for them.”
(As Cassidy noted, not a good look for Derek Forbort here on the goal that eventually sent Ullmark to the bench.)
And that is the most concerning part of all this discourse surrounding Boston's defensive woes.
Nope, it’s not injuries or inexperience. Rask’s struggles have hampered them for a few games, but be it Ullmark or Jeremy Swayman, the Bruins at the very least have some solid options in place between the pipes.
Instead, it’s primarily due to personnel and underperformance — a potentially lethal mix.
Whether it be frustrating shifts from free-agent additions like Forbort — or both long-time stalwarts like Brandon Carlo and 2021 pickups like Mike Reilly taking major steps back — the B’s have a much bigger undertaking on their hands if the pieces they envisioned would anchor their new-look D corps are putting forth unsatisfactory returns.
And if the Bruins are going to fix said flaws, it’s going to take a whole lot more than just a roll of FlexTape.