We will begin our annual autopsy of the Patriots' season next week as we dive into all the numbers and re-examine some of the film from their 18 games. Then we'll identify the holes, possible departures and the initial list of possible additions as we kick off the offseason.
But first, let's step back a bit and look a bit at the big picture and give you a preview of the Patriots' offseason. At first blush, what are the chief issues that will need to be addressed after a 10-8 season that saw the Patriots lose four of five in less-than-impressive fashion?
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
1. Figure out the coaching staff.
If Bill Belichick is being honest with himself, he has to look at his defense and special teams and admit those units were not well-coached this team. Even some of the advanced analytics that pro-Patriots people want to cling to talk about this defense (the special teams were bad in every way outside of Nick Folk) show you that they were at least in the bottom half of the league in defense in the final five weeks, if not among the worst.
Talent had some to do with that, sure. But, considering how past coaching staffs have coached up lesser talented defenses, that does not explain everything. Certainly not the last two-plus games against the Bills. There was something else at play there.
As we've discussed, there was a disconnect between the defensive coaches and the players. That's obvious on film. Disciplined, assignment-sure play we took for granted around here for decades was replaced by confusion and lack of buy-in for the first time since perhaps the 2009 season. Then-defensive coordinator Dean Pees paid the price for that with his firing. What's going to happen this time around with two of Belichick's sons on the staff? Likely nothing.
Belichick needs to declare The One Voice that rules all on defense. The one who oversees the gameplan. The one who makes sure the position coaches are teaching everything the right way. The one that players can go to if something is going wrong. This past season, apparently there were four cooks in the kitchen at any one time — Belichick, Steve Belichick, Jerod Mayo and former defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. The easiest move would be re-install Patricia as coordinator, but it's believed he has one year left on his Lions contract so unless the Patriots suddenly want to pay him full boat, he's likely going to be a "senior football advisor" for another season. He could also kick over to personnel if Dave Ziegler and/or Eliot Wolf are hired elsewhere with, like the defense after Brian Flores, no apparent in-house successor.
If Belichick believes Steve or Mayo are ready, then he should name them and give them power. If not, he should go full-time into defense. That could happen if Joe Judge goes back to special teams.
Things could get really complicated on the offensive side if Ziegler is hired by the Las Vegas Raiders — and he's believed to be a strong candidate. If that happens, Josh McDaniels could go from largely sitting out this hiring cycle — he has passed on some interviews where the structure didn't make sense — to being intrigued. If the worst happens, Bill O'Brien has still not been hired in the NFL despite numerous interviews. He would be the clear top choice. Internally, Nick Caley would be next man up.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
2. How are they going to play on defense?
Do they want to play more man coverage? Do they want to continue with their stop-the-run belief, even though no one but the Titans actually wins with a run-first defense anymore? Do they want to get faster on defense? Belichick seemed open to scheme changes after the season concluded, and that has to be looked at. The landscape of the league has changed. It might make more sense for the Patriots now to worry about the pass first, and figure out the run later.
Going along with that, and almost the first order of business ... the Patriots have to have a plan for free agent JC Jackson. The franchise tag is projected to be $17.3 million and would severely dent their offseason spending if he played under that – and I doubt if he's gone this far he would take anything less than a top of the CB market ($20 million AAV) contract. That's if the Patriots even want to give Jackson that kind of money. Not every player is as good once they get paid. It's always a consideration for every player.
If it's not Jackson, Jonathan Jones and Jalen Mills (not good at man) at corner, how will the Patriots be able to play good man coverage next year? Do they think that's still important?
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
3. Deal with the free agents, veterans, roster tweaks.
Here are the Patriots' unrestricted free agents, and what's behind them if they depart:
Devin McCourty ... no ready replacement.
J.C. Jackson ... no ready replacement.
Ted Karras ... Mike Onwenu.
Ja'Whaun Bentley ... Raekwon McMillian
Dont'a Hightower ... Anfernee Jennings
Trent Brown ... Justin Herron/Yodny Cajuste
Brandon Bolden ... no ready replacement.
Jamie Collins ... no ready replacement (Cam McGrone?)
Nick Folk ... Quinn Nordin?
Carl Davis ... no ready replacement.
James White ... no ready replacement/JJ Taylor?
Brian Hoyer ... Jarrett Stidham.
Harvey Langi ... Jahlani Tavai.
Matt Slater ... no ready replacement.
Brandon King ...no ready replacement.
Troy Fumagalli ... doesn't need replacing.
There's a lot of wins, institutional knowledge and core special teamers on there.
What about players the Patriots may just move on from? Those on the list (cap number):
Nelson Agholor $15 million
Jonnu Smith $13.5 million
Isaiah Wynn $10.4 million
Shaq Mason $10.3 million
Davon Godchaux $10.25 million
Kyle Van Noy $7.45 million
N'Keal Harry $3.2 million
Joejuan Williams $2.1 million
How are they replaced?
(Getty Images)
4. What offensive changes are needed?
For having a rookie QB, the Patriots' offense was in the top half of the league in almost every category when it comes to offensive efficiency, passing and running. There was some good stuff there. Now they just have to get better and more efficient. What does McDaniels think that looks like?
Do they think they can get more out of Smith, or do they go back to the TE/slot system and add that speedy inside slot (yes please)? Do they want more of a speed element on the outside? Where do they find that? Do they finally find a good one in the draft?
We'll have more in-depth ideas about all this as the offseason progresses