And, predictably with what they did the previous four weeks, the Patriots' defense ended with a thud in the 47-17 wild-card loss to the Bills.
Everyone knows all the numbers. All the consecutive scoring drives. All the drives without punts. The lack of negative plays. A putrid six third downs.
Buffalo did what they wanted to do, when they wanted to.
The Bills and Josh Allen were certainly good, but this was more about the Patriots. Terrible zone coverage. Inability to cover man to man. Zero pass rush (three hurries ... that was it).
The Patriots' plan was pathetic. The execution was worse. And, again, you have to question the buy-in since the bye week.
This was, decidedly, not a one-off. This was not Allen carving up a "Bill Belichick Defense." What the Patriots put out there was not anything close to that. And if you were paying attention and honest about this team, this was the norm, not the exception down the stretch.
I asked Aaron Schatz from FootballOutsiders.com to pull the DVOA splits for the Patriots' defense:
Ranks here are where the Patriots would have ranked for the entire season, not where they rank for the weeks in question.
Weeks 1-13:
-16.9% overall (2nd)
-17.4% pass (3rd)
-16.3% rush (7th)
Weeks 15-19 (including playoff loss):
+15.9% overall (32nd)
+28.8% pass (31st)
+3.4% rush (32nd)
Even if you take out Saturday's game (not sure why you would, considering these numbers include the Jaguars), the Patriots were at best middling down the stretch:
Weeks 15-18:
+0.2% overall (15th)
+4.6% pass (14th)
-4.2% rush (24th)
The question is why? What happened? Well, I've asked around One Patriot Place since the loss and, before we get into video breakdowns, unit grades and zero up/seven downs, this is what I've learned:
There was a disconnect between the coaches and players. I don't have specifics and I doubt there was one seminal moment. At some point, the defense did not believe in the plan or the coaching, and that was reflected on the field. The final five games were littered with undisciplined play that showed some players just doing what they wanted. They stopped just doing their job. The film shows this. It was clear to anyone who wanted to be honest.
Did the Patriots lack the talent to match up after the Stephon Gilmore trade, Jonathan Jones injury and Jalen Mills Covid stint? Absolutely. They were in a tough spot.
But contrastingly, I've seen much less talented versions of this defense achieve much more and play better because they were disciplined and believed in the plan and the coaching. 2011 was the shining example of that. A patchwork secondary (Julian Edelman playing slot) and an iffy pass rush can together to nearly win a Super Bowl that season. They weren't talented, but they did their job and the coaches coached them up.
A decade later, the 2021 Patriots were the antithesis to that team.
Why?
From what I've been told, the players and even the position coaches didn't know who to follow on defense. There was no unifying strong voice on that side at the end of the season. That must be addressed by Bill Belichick in the offseason. Should have been addressed earlier. In 2019, there were the same issues. But that felt like a one-off. This is no longer that.
What I believe, from reading the tea leaves:
- The defense was an undisciplined mess in the first six games despite an upgrade in talent. That was partly due to the communication issues.
- After Dallas and 3rd and 25, Belichick became the alpha on defense and got everyone's shit in order. You see that on film. During the seven-game win streak, the Patriots' defense was back to its disciplined, well-executing self.
- After the bye it reverted back. Perhaps Belichick thought the defense was righted so he turned the controls back over to Steve Belichick and/or Jerod Mayo. Like the early part of the season, it unraveled again.
If the Patriots are going to get out this mess, it's going to have to start with the defense and with Belichick identifying and correcting the fundamental leadership issues on that side of the ball.
Here are the defensive positional ratings against the Bills:
Defensive line (1 out of 5)
Just a horrible mess on this side of the ball. ... Wise and Guy led the team with two plus plays each. That's it. ... 19 minus plays as a group, led by Van Noy, Judon and Barmore (who was obviously hobbled by the knee injury). ... Zero pass rush. ... Judon did not start either half. In the second half when Bentley was out, Hightower replaced him and Collins took Hightower's spot at end while Judon watched again. Make no mistake, his role was reduced in this game as we predicted it would be.
Linebackers (0 out of 5)
This group (Bentley, Hightower, Collins) had nine plays and zero plus plays. They were roadkill in the run game, couldn’t get off blocks and weren’t even close in coverage. Hightower and Collins were obviously dealing with injuries that rendered them useless in this game and it’s not their fault the Patriots had no other options
Secondary (0 out of 5)
If there was one player that invited questions about his effort as the game went on, it was JC Jackson, who had the worst game of his career with seven minus plays and one positive play on the first drive. Perhaps he saw the gameplan, which didn’t include much man coverage against Stefon Diggs because the rest of the defense could not matchup, and he was less than enthused. The whole defense appeared that way. … There were at least five missed tackles in this group. … Joejuan Williams allowed a TD and two other big plays. … Kyle Dugger should have made a play on the ball on the opening Dawson Knox TD.
ZERO UP
Just mailed it in.
SEVEN DOWN
JC Jackson: As the season went on, Jackson looked more and more for the ball instead of playing the man, which led to a TD in this game. It was reminiscent of Malcolm Butler in his final season, when he was trying to make plays ahead of being a free agent. Jackson’s future here has to be in question.
Matthew Judon: His great disappearing act continued in similar fashion. He may have been dealing with an off-field issue, he could have been more hurt than it showed on the injury report. Those around the team said, for whatever reason, he had less energy and buy-in after the bye week.
Joejuan Williams: This should be it for him. Patriots have to start developing real depth in the secondary.
Dont’a Hightower: Obviously the knee became worse as the season went on.
Jamie Collins: Has lost the legs that made him such an impact player.
Kyle Van Noy: Didn’t look interested in hitting TEs and slots off the line and didn’t see crack blocks coming. Very odd. Such a smart player usually.
Devin McCourty: The severe cold exaggerated the step he has clearly lost.
Christian Barmore: Toughed it out for the team, which was great to see. He was not physically ready for this game. Not his fault.