The Chiefs' victory over the Broncos on Saturday night didn't give us a whole lot more clarity when it comes to the Patriots' possible first-round playoff opponent. The only thing we know is the Patriots have been eliminated from getting the first-round bye that they could have control over if they beat the Colts or the Bills.
If the favorites all win — Patriots, Titans, Bills, Colts and Browns (Bengals are -6 without Joe Burrow but there's also no Baker Mayfield ... odd) — then the Patriots will travel to Cincinnati. If the Bengals win, the Patriots are going back to Buffalo. Those are the two most likely scenarios, according to our buddy Aaron Schatz over at FootballOutsiders.com:
BUF 42.2%
CIN 40.2%
KC 6.4%
LAC 4.5%
IND 3.3%
TEN 3.2%
PIT 0.1%
LV 0.1%
Obviously the Patriots, due to their late-season swoon against playoff teams, are in no position to choose their opponent when it comes the playoffs. And they could still be anywhere from the 2nd to the 7th seed. But which opponent gives them the best to chance to advance out of wild-card weekend? Ranking the possible opponents with factor to like, factor to fear and our confidence in a victory:
6. Tennessee Titans
A part of the growing list of teams that are enjoying more success of late against the Patriots (like the Dolphins and Bills in the AFC East), the Titans have won 2 of the last 3 matchups against the Patriots and were 1 yard from being within one score of the Patriots at Gillette with half a roster earlier this season. The 36-13 final score on Nov. 28 was one of the biggest fallacies of this season.
Factor to like: The Titans are not going to run away from Mac Jones and the Patriots on the scoreboard so New England can play their offensive game for a good portion of the game. And Tennessee is a big turnover team. If the Patriots can win the turnover battle, Tennessee has a tough time winning. The Titans are 8-1 when they win the turnover battle. They are 3-4 when they do not.
Factor to fear: Mike Vrabel. He should be the coach of the year considering that he's a win away from the top seed when he had, by far, the most starters games lost to injury. He nearly pulled off an upset here this season, to go along with the 2019 playoff beatdown and 34-10 Music City Massacre in 2018. Vrabel is one of the few coaches who can go toe to toe with Bill Belichick, and beat Belichick to the punch by anticipating his moves. The Titans defense knows how to defend the Patriots.
Victory confidence: 25 percent. If the Titans get healthy — and RB Derrick Henry is back practicing — this is the last team the Patriots want to face to you're hoping they win and grab the top seed.
5. Kansas City Chiefs
Chiefs are no longer the same team, but they've gone to three-straight conference championships and the last two Super Bowls. They are not to be taken lightly.
Factor to like: Patrick Mahomes hasn't been the same player since the toe injury last season. He's more prone to turnovers and risks, and they are no longer blowing out teams with ease. Every game seems like a struggle as more and more teams have realized the Chiefs are really just Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, and they're all dinged up to some extent.
Factor to fear: Playing at Arrowhead is no picnic in the winter, especially with an unproven offense in bad weather. And there's always a chance things just finally click for Mahomes and the passing offense.
Victory confidence: 35 percent. If you watched any Chiefs games this season, including last night, you know they are not running away from anyone and the defense runs very hot and cold (it's cold right now).
4. Buffalo Bills
The two teams split their season series but only one was in realistic weather conditions, and the Bills largely had their way to win their 3rd matchup in 4 tries. They know each other very well. Bills are very talented but rarely play to that level.
Factor to like: Patriots took the Bills' best shot and still nearly made it a game. The Patriots played atrocious in that game and we've already laid out why we think they'll be much better in a third installment.
Factor to fear: The Bills might simply be more talented than the Patriots at too many spots and if they don't get turnovers from Josh Allen, New England might have a hard time winning if most areas are even. At the end of the day, talent wins if execution levels are the same.
Victory confidence: 45 percent in Buffalo, 52 percent in Foxboro. I can't understate how bad the Patriots played, especially defensively, in the last matchup. The Patriots have many more options to play better, the Bills do not. In fact, it's more likely Allen plays much worse. If the Patriots are not good on defense again, it's going to be because they lack talent and the buy-in to keep Allen in the pocket is simply not good enough.
3. Colts (longshot as the 3 seed)
The two teams already met and we know what happened. The Patriots fell behind 20-0 thanks to a blocked punt and could never complete the comeback despite the Colts being scared to death of Carson Wentz.
Factor to like: Wentz. Might be the only matchup where the Patriots have the advantage at quarterback. He's terrible and will give the game to the Patriots.
Factor to fear: Frank Reich. Knows how to play the Patriots, is smart and not afraid to go for the win. He will focus on the Colts being more physical than the Patriots, and they were in the first matchup.
Victory confidence: 51 percent. The only way the two teams meet is at Gillette and I have zero confidence in Wentz in that situation. But this is a damn tough team.
2. Bengals
Conventional wisdom about the Bengals is that they are a young team that is ascending at the right time. What people have conveniently ignored in the AFC North is that the rest of the division has imploded this season under injuries and COVID, and the Bengals were essentially gifted the division. Their current three-game winning streak (which does include a quality W at home against the Chiefs) is their longest of the season.
Factor to like: Like many of the Patriots' new pieces on offense, the Bengals have never been in this position before so they're basically on a level playing field with Mac Jones, Nelson Agholor, Hunter Henry, et al. Coach Zac Taylor has certainly never been at this point, and Belichick and Josh McDaniels will have a huge coaching advantage over their Bengals counterparts.
Factor to fear: If Burrow gets protection, this is exactly the type of well-balanced offensive team (RB Joe Mixon, WR Ja'Marr Chase, WR Tee Higgins, WR Tyler Boyd, TE C.J. Uzomah) that would give this Patriots' defense fits. All five of those players have over 40 receptions this season. The Patriots do not have enough guys to cover them.
Victory confidence: 55 percent. Bengals have played the 28th easiest schedule to this point. Only the Eagles, Bills, Broncos and Dolphins have had an easier road (Patriots are 24th). Plus, the Bengals' defense is 20th in total DVOA, 20th in pass DVOA and 22nd in rush DVOA. So even if the Bengals score, the Patriots can keep pace with them. Burrow has been on a heater, no doubt, and he could have flipped the switch (11 TDs, 0 INTs) in last four games. But before that, he had 23 TDs and 14 INTs — numbers very similar to Jones. Burrow, with a week of rust and behind a shoddy offensive line, could be that player again against the Patriots defense.
1. Chargers
This is fairly remote, but the Patriots have won 7 straight in the series and the last three (one in 2018 playoffs) by an average score of 38-17. Patriots won earlier this season at LA 27-24 on an Adrian Phillips pick-six.
Factor to like: Belichick and this defense have had zero issues with Brandon Staley and Justin Herbert.
Factor to fear: Herbert is just so talented that at some point, he just might win a game by himself. Sort of like Allen in the last Bills matchup. And Herbert is better than Allen.
Victory confidence: 90 percent. The Chargers are not coming here and winning a playoff game in January. It's not happening. Not yet. Soft team.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Patriots left Dont'a Hightower (knee) at home for today's game against the Dolphins. That's wise. This defense needs a Hightower at near full strength and he could use the rest. Patriots also elevated DB Sean Davis, DL Daniel Ekuale and DB D’Angelo Ross from the practice squad.
2. Much was made of the fact that, for the first time, the Patriots used the ability to protect players on the practice squad from being signed by other teams. They did it with safety Sean Davis, tight Matt LaCosse, defensive tackle Daniel Ekuale and wide receiver Kristian Wilkerson. It's really not a big deal and doesn't say much other than the Patriots are going to the playoffs and don't want a team out of it signing a depth player they've developed. A good time to poach players, and then give them "futures" deals for next season.
3. If Matthew Slater had a vote for NFL Executive of the Year, Belichick would seem to have his. Slater was over the moon this week to reporters about the team's free-agent additions. "That energy has been fantastic for this football team over the course of the year,” Slater said. “Just kind of injecting some life and new blood into what we do. Those guys have come in here and they have worked their butts off. They’ve had great attitudes, all of them. All of them have dynamic personalities in their own ways and I think that’s added, not only to our performance on the field but to the dynamics in our locker room. We’ve been very blessed in that regard. ... Usually when you make those big free-agent hauls like that, it’s kind of like a 50-50 deal. With us, I feel like all those guys we’ve hit on."
4. Vic Fangio was fired as Broncos coach this morning. It would seem to be a longshot that Josh McDaniels would be given another look there, but Broncos insider Mike Klis did float his name about a month ago. Largely a new regime there now, and it's now a strong GM setup with George Paton. I think McDaniels would work well with Paton, but he's likely to stay with what he knows from his Vikings days (Mike Zimmer could resurface there).
5. From what I hear, the Jim Harbaugh to the Raiders stuff is very real. After playing, his first job in coaching was with the Raiders, he loved everything about being a Raider and had a close connection with Al Davis. As opposed to Nick Saban, who realized he didn't like the NFL, Harbaugh feels like his downfall with the 49ers was solely because of GM Trent Baalke. And getting that close to winning a Super Bowl ... that has to burn.