Yeah, I pretty much let the Patriots' defensive coaches and players have it in the aftermath of the loss to the Bills.
Bedard: 3 Sequences to an L - Among many misdeeds, Patriots rush and coverage made it too easy for Allen, Bills
Bedard's Breakdown: Defensive performance vs. Bills so poor all around, buy-in has to be in question
And it was all deserved. We don't really need to rehash it.
But there's a very real chance that we could see a third matchup between the teams come the playoffs. According to ESPN’s football power index, there is a 49% chance of a Patriots-Bills rematch in the wild card round.
If another matchup happens, you can be damn sure the Patriots are not going to play defense the same way against Josh Allen and the Bills. It's probably a good thing for the Patriots that it worked out this way. If the weather was fine in Buffalo, this would have happened in the first matchup. The Patriots would have adjusted for the game in Foxboro. That would have left more room for Buffalo and Brian Daboll to counterpunch in the playoffs.
The way things worked out, with the first matchup basically irrelevant, the Patriots will have the big counterpunch in the playoffs.
How will the Patriots likely adjust? We saw some of it as the game went on, but there were some clues earlier in the game with some things that nearly worked.
1. Better personnel choices.
Coming into this game, the Patriots deactivated DBs Shaun Wade, Joejuan Williams and Joshuah Bledsoe. That was the first mistake in this game. Not enough defensive back options and way too much reliance on defensive linemen. Who the hell cares if the Bills rush for a lot of yards? Expect the Patriots to encourage this the next time around by going very light in terms of their personnel.
By the fourth quarter, the Patriots realized that Dont'a Hightower was luggage in this matchup and they, finally, went to more big dime with Ja'Whaun Bentley as the lone linebacker, two linemen, Matthew Judon and Kyle Van Noy. They had the three safeties and three cornerbacks. More of this, please.
Can't believe I'm saying this, but I think the Patriots missed Deatrich Wise in this game. Wise has always been an asset in pass games; his big-time issues come against teams that want to run (Colts). His bull rush on an end could be issues for Allen and the Bills' line.
If I'm the Patriots, this is the personnel I'm starting with against the Bills, along with the subs:
DE Matthew Judon/Josh Uche
DT Lawrence Guy/Daniel Ekuale
DT Christian Barmore/Deatrich Wise
DE Kyle Van Noy/Dont'a Hightower
LB Jamie Collins/Ja'Whaun Bentley
LB Kyle Dugger/Joshuah Bledsoe
SS Adrian Phillips
FS Devin McCourty
CB JC Jackson
CB Jalen Mills
CB Myles Bryant/Shaun Wade
Hightower was a liability. Every time he was in coverage, he was way too deep and the Bills just checked it down in front of him for easy yards. He could only be a short-yardage option in this game.
I would play a lot of two high safeties with McCourty and Bryant as the free safeties. That would take the LB off the field and put Phillips or Dugger at MLB in passing situations.
2. Better rush discipline.
This was the biggest issue in the game, and it caused a ton of problems when it came to coverage.
The Patriots will simply have to be a lot better. If Davon Godchaux can't stay in his spot, deactivate him. He was constantly moving into wrong gaps or going up the field leaving huge space for Allen to run through. Matthew Judon will also have to be a lot better. For some reason, this gameplan called for him to mind Dawson Knox a lot in this game. What a colossal mistake. Either Daboll anticipated this, or adjusted quickly because that decision made Judon useless in this game. That can't happen again. Yes, someone should butch Knox off the line, but that's it. The Patriots don't need Judon tackling Knox 9 yards behind the plays. They need him pushing Spencer Brown right back into Allen and being a brick wall on one side of Allen. Also, don't be afraid to move Judon around on passing downs.
I know Van Noy is going going to do his job on the other side, and Hightower can mix in doing that as well. Hell, have Hightower as a DT in passing situations. Put him and Judon over the guards, Wise and Van Noy on the outside. The most important thing will be to build a wall around Allen where he doesn't feel he can escape. That's why he nearly threw that pick to JC Jackson.
The first two downs on the final drive were some of the best work the Patriots did all day, and they can do better.
Thought the Patriots looked good on the few occasions they rushed five together.
3. Hit people, often.
This was one of the more puzzling things in this game, and the one area where you can bank on the Patriots improving in another matchup.
Basically, any back out of the backfield, tight end inline or just off the tackle, and any crossing route, must be hit by a Patriots defender within the 5-yard box where it is legal. Isaiah McKenzie could have been blasted about 6 times in this one by a linebacker or safety, and that MUST happen in the next matchup.
Look at McKenzie's routes against the Patriots. Do you see how many unfettered routes across the middle of the field there were, and how far he was allowed to run before he caught the ball? That simply can't happen again. That's too long in coverage and way too finesse.
I asked Steve Belichick whether someone like Dugger has the freedom to do that.
"The most important thing is for each individual guy to do their job," he said. "And then if you can assist and help out your teammates because your job's not as pressing at the moment, that's always appreciated by the team."
Dugger's very young, so he doesn't know. Put Phillips there then. If a guy crosses your face in the box, he must be knocked off his route.
The Patriots looked like they had been invited to a flag football game in this one. If they play another game like that, the Bills have a huge advantage — they are a flag offense.
The Patriots need to muck up each game and get it fought in a phone booth.
On the outside, the Patriots need to encourage vertical routes by playing inside leverage. The middle of the field was where Allen made his living in the game.
ProFootballFocus.com
Allen was 15 of 18 for 153 yards and two touchdowns in the middle of the field. The Patriots can prevent that by cutting down on inside releases — certainly with some physical contact — and encouraging the tougher deep sideline options. Allen can hit those, for sure, but he killed them in the middle of the field against zone.
I would prefer two man with physical underneath man coverage and an athletic spy (Dugger?) assigned to Allen in obvious passing situations.
The one thing I do know: the Patriots can play a lot better in a rematch, and they will.