The Patriots made a very wise move Saturday, signing pending free agent safety Adrian Phillips to a three-year extension worth up to $14.25 million with $7.25 million guaranteed.
Actually, it was a two-way street. The Patriots, with some looming question marks in the secondary coming in 2022, wisely locked up a perfect fit for their system at multiple safety spots. Phillips, realizing the fit, left millions on the table to opt for stability (OverTheCap.com has Phillips' 2021 valuation as $10.2 million per season). Phillips will be 30 next season and still has prime years left. A great deal for the Patriots.
With Devin McCourty's future in doubt — his contract voids after this season and he'll be 35 next season — the Patriots have a foundation piece at safety even if McCourty retires or signs elsewhere. The future of JC Jackson is also up in the air. Having to potentially replace your three best secondary players in one offseason would be daunting.
Let's take a closer look at the futures of the Patriots' unrestricted free agents, and some players who could be released or traded at some point:
2022 UNRESTRICTED FREE AGENTS
Devin McCourty, S, $11.5 million APY: McCourty should and will likely be a Patriot for as long as he wants to be. It remains to be seen if he wants to play for approximately half of what he's making right now, but with the shape he keeps himself in and the ability to play free safety, there's no reason to think McCourty couldn't play for another 3-5 years. But he might not want to. He's had a very good and lucrative ($84 million) career, and he still has his health. Odds of return: 50 percent.
JC Jackson, CB, $3.38 million: After making a total of $5.2 million in his first four seasons, Jackson is set to get his first (and only?) shot at a big payday this offseason when he's 28. OTC has him valued at $15.4 million for this season. The Patriots have the option of using the franchise tag on Jackson, and that value is projected to be $17.3 million for 2022. If the Malcolm Butler negotiations are any indication, the Patriots have tried to get Jackson at a below-market deal for at least the last year and he has, wisely, refused and bet on himself. Trading away Stephon Gilmore has given Jackson even more leverage. With the cap set to explode in the coming years out of Covid and with new TV deals, Jackson will want to start the bidding on his services at about $38 million guaranteed for the first two seasons — which is the same number as two seasons under the franchise tag. Jalen Ramsey is the highest-paid corner at $20 million APY. Jackson should rightfully want to approach that in any contract extension. Unless Jackson wants to take a below-market deal, his Patriots future is interesting. Patriots have about $22 million in effective cap space (before Phillips) for '22 right now. A Jackson tag would basically be the whole remaining cap before they re-sign anyone. Given the success of the Patriots' zone defense this season, you could see the Patriots thinking cornerback should not be a huge expenditure for them. I would not just let Jackson walk for a third-rounder a year down the road. I think a tag and trade has the highest chance of happening. Odds of return: 33 percent.
Trent Brown, RT, $9 million: When he's played, he's been a very good player and gives the Patriots options at left tackle. But did another calf injury spook the Patriots and make them wonder about his durability? Doubt the Patriots invest too much in Brown without an out, but could see one-year deals become the norm with him. He loves it here, so he will likely play ball. But the Patriots have options at tackle (Justin Herron, Yodny Cajuste, Yasir Durant) that they've kept on the roster. Ideally, the Patriots make Brown earn his spot every camp, but they didn't do that this year ($6.5 million guaranteed). Odds of return: 75 percent.
(Getty Images)
Dont'a Hightower, LB, $8.9 million: Is still a good player, but has become more of a role player due to his limited speed and durability concerns. After taking the 2020 Covid opt-out, does he want to continue playing, especially if the Patriots ask for him to play for about half his former salary? That's the key question that only Hightower can answer. Would tend to doubt Hightower would want to do that, but you can never rule out Belichick giving out a binkie contract. The Patriots have some players (Raekwon McMillan, Cam McGrone) in the pipeline, and the Patriots could use some draft influx of talent here as well. Odds of return: 30 percent.
Ted Karras, C, $3 million: Will have to fight for another starting spot but there seems to be no good reason why Steady Teddy, who can at least back up all three interior spots, should not be back here on a similar deal. He could get offered more elsewhere (like Miami did a few years ago), but Karras seems to have learned the lesson that the grass is not always greener (even if the contract is). Odds of return: 95 percent.
Ja'Whaun Bentley, LB, $690,000: Will be looking for a starter's contract and the Patriots might give it to him because it appears he his a Belichick favorite, but the Patriots can't do better here with a younger player (McGrone?). Odds of return: 55 percent.
Brandon Bolden, RB/STs, $1.85 million: A Belichick favorite who recently revealed he overcame cancer, he's a Patriot for life it would seem. Odds of return: 98 percent.
James White, RB, $2.5 million: If healthy and cheap, he always has a home here. Odds of return (if healthy): 90 percent.
Matthew Slater, STs, $2.7 million: Will be 37 next season and is slowing down, but still invaluable. Might be time to consider the character coach role and see his family more. Odds of return: 33 percent.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
Jamie Collins, LB, $1.1 million: Given Collins' revolving door career, it wouldn't be a surprise if he looked, again, for the highest offer and if nothing develops, then return to the Patriots on the cheap. He's good to have around to give the Patriots options, but his days of being a dominating every-down player are gone. Odds of return: 55 percent.
Nick Folk, K, $1.5 million: Quinn Nordin is on the practice squad and the future, but no reason not to bring Folk back every year as long as he doesn't expect to get paid. Odds of return: 98 percent.
Carl Davis, NT, $1 million: He's been a solid journeyman and would give the team options on a player listed below. Odds of return: 70 percent.
Brian Hoyer, QB, $1 million: As long as he wants to continue to play and put in the hours as a vet minimum, he'll be here at least through camp to help Mac Jones. Odds of return: 90 percent.
Harvey Langi, Brandon King, LBs/STs: I'm sure they'll be back. The type of players who are always back. Odds of return: 90 percent.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
POSSIBLE RELEASES OR TRADES
Isaiah Wynn, LT, $10.4 million in '22: Do the Patriots regret giving him the fifth-year option? Has he earned that pay for next season or even the starting job? Would have to be a trade, and the Patriots may have to eat some money to move him. Odds of return: 60 percent.
Jonnu Smith, TE, $12.5 million APY: There's no rush to make this decision so I would roll the dice that he just needed an adjustment season, but can't rule out a post-June 1 trade that would save them about $6 million in cap space. Again, you have to find a taker. Odds of return: 60 percent.
Davon Godchaux, NT, $7.5 million APY: Has not played to his contract but it only has another year on it — with a $10.25 million hit. A trade would net the Patriots about $5 million. Odds of return: 40 percent.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Patriots got some good news on the Covid front ahead of Sunday's game against the Jaguars. Ja’Whaun Bentley, Brian Hoyer, Matthew Judon, Brandon King and Josh Uche all were activated off the Covid list. DT Daniel Ekuale, CB D’Angelo Ross, WR Kristian Wilkerson were elevated from the practice squad. LB Harvey Langi stayed on IR for the rest of the season.
2. Interesting report from Joe Person that Panthers owner Dave Tepper "is unhappy and embarrassed after the $16 billion hedge fund manager gave (Matt) Rhule a seven-year, $62-million deal to outbid the New York Giants for his services." He has only himself to blame. Many thought Josh McDaniels was a shoo-in at Carolina before Tepper allowed himself to get bullied by Rhule and his agent. It's funny that both the Giants and Panthers gave into perceived leverage pressure to (Rhule, the Giants; Joe Judge, Mississippi State) first-time NFL head coaches before even talking to McDaniels – who was scheduled to interview at both places. How did that work out for either team? They got played. That being said, I think Rhule is headed for success in Year 3. That team is getting better but QB has killed them.
3. Sorry, still not believing in the Dolphins. Their winning streak was more fake than the Patriots' streak. Dolphins haven't played anyone, but they are the next two weeks (Titans, Patriots). Like the Patriots playing the Colts, Bills ... we'll know more about the Dolphins after this.
4. If you think Myles Bryant was the issues vs. Bills, Steve Belichick would like a word. "They threw the ball almost 50 times so they gotta throw at somebody. ... I thought we could have coached the game better, we could have played the game better in some situations. We could have rushed better at times to not give the quarterback a chance to throw those passes so it's, I don't look at it as you know, Myles let us down or anything like that. That hasn't crossed my mind once, during the game or since then. The whole defense needed to play better and it starts with the coaching."
5. Troy Brown on N'Keal Harry: "I just want to see him keep working the way he's been working this year. From day 1 since he got here, he's been working hard and willing to do whatever it took to win this football team some games. That's all I can ask of him is to keep working and keep trying to get his fundamentals better and where they need to be. Same thing I ask of all the guys in my group: just keep grinding away at your job and what we ask you to do and try to stay prepared for the moment your number is called. ... Recalling from my playing days (execution issues come from) not being mentally ready, not know exactly what I need to be doing and just not putting enough effort into the job I was asked to do. That's what it boils down to. We just have to do, as coaches, a better job of getting our guys in a position to play better. It comes down to us."