Bedard: Stephon Gilmore another late decision by Belichick, is JC Jackson next?

Bill Belichick — the general manager — has had better stretches.

The roster he constructed for 2019 started 10-1 against a soft schedule (only the Bills and Eagles were playoff teams, both lost in the first round), but finished 2-4 with a humbling home playoff loss to the Titans.

Tom Brady didn't think things would get better, so he left.

He was right.

The roster Belichick constructed for 2020 finished 7-9 and was out of the playoff race before Thanksgiving thanks to a loss at Houston that dropped them to 4-6 (bad omen alert).

To reset the roster, Belichick shelled out $150 million in guaranteed contracts to pump in talent at receiver, tight end and in the front seven. 

That roster Belichick constructed is off to a 1-3 start with all three losses coming in winnable games. Most thought 3-1 was a given, 2-2 at worst.

The Patriots currently have 10 wins in their last 26 games. They are 8-12 since Brady left.

The Patriots are in this position because they have watched a parade of blue-chip players walk out the door in recent years, with little waiting in the wings to replace them.

And because Belichick, the man who famously was three steps ahead of everyone else, has now fallen multiple steps behind.

Stephon Gilmore is just the latest example.

Was Belichick wrong to cut bait with Gilmore at this point in time, considering how much of a pain he had become about his contract, his age (31) and possibly declining pay? No, not necessarily (but we would have tried to make it work for one more season).

But this wasn't about the decision or the player. It's about WHEN the decision was made, how it affected the return, and how it will impact the team down the road.

The Patriots have let way too many blue-chip players walk out the door in recent years with little to show for it.

That's how you wind up 10-16 and needing to bring in 11 new starters in one offseason.

This was another in a long line of blunders for Belichick, and now you have to wonder if he is walking into another one with J.C. Jackson.

How the deal for Gilmore went down, a look at poor decisions that led them here, and the lay of the land on Jackson — the next big move that many will claim the Patriots couldn't see coming ahead of time:

BLUE CHIPS OUT, NOT MUCH BACK

Gilmore to Carolina for a 6th-round pick

How the deal went down:

• Patriots were essentially out of cap space and needed to make a move. Other alternatives were extending Dont'a Hightower (no), Devin McCourty, Shaq Mason and Jonathan Jones.
• Gilmore, after watching the Patriots shell out way more money for outside players in free agency than he was set to make, wanted to be brought up to that level. Patriots weren't going to do anything until Gilmore showed he was healthy. Stalemate. Both sides decided it was best to move on.
• Gilmore was open to playing this season out at the $7 million owed to him, but only for a team that was willing to give him a contract extension in the offseason. Patriots weren't.
• Patriots called around to friendly teams on Tuesday, including Carolina, to gauge interest in Gilmore trade. Patriots wanted too much, price unknown. Panthers said they'd be in for late-round compensation. Teams called the player's agent to gauge the market if the Patriots end up releasing Gilmore. They were told Green Bay was the strongest contender.
• Patriots' bluff was called, they take the only real offer they had: the sixth-round pick from Carolina. There are no stipulations on Gilmore's contract. He told the team he'd play for the balance as long as there's good faith on an extension in the offseason.

Again, the issue with this deal is not that the Patriots made it — although it's difficult to see how a thin secondary couldn't use a No. 1 corner on the cheap in a couple weeks (Patriots likely knew Gilmore had some options in his pocket to withhold his services, if needed) — it's the timing.

A year ago at the trade deadline, the Patriots knew they weren't going anywhere that season and that Gilmore was not going to play for $7 million the following season. Everyone knew the Patriots had little choice other than to trade Gilmore at the deadline — Gilmore even put his house on the market.

But Belichick apparently didn't like the possible compensation, decided he'd squat on Gilmore and deal him in the offseason for more. That was ruined when Gilmore sustained a torn quad in late December, knocking his trade compensation all the way down to a sixth. You can't say the injury was bad luck or unforeseen. This is football, a collision sport, it is always part of the equation. You never know what might happen: injury, drug suspension, off-field issue. You take the deal when you can get it.

Belichick erred not trading Gilmore a year ago. That is just a fact.

PATRIOTS LOST: Some $6 million in salary by keeping Gilmore on 2020 roster, a Day 1 or 2 draft pick.

Patriots also have no cornerbacks in the pipeline.

Joe Thuney walks in free agency with zero compensation

We were on this many times. Even I could see this coming. To recap:

Bill Belichick gambled he could — and should — get more for Thuney in a trade than a third-round compensatory pick (same as his draft level after four years of development), and the coach has lost to this point.

Belichick should cut his losses, get as much for Thuney in a trade, and move on.

If not, Belichick stands to lose even more.

The Patriots aren’t going to franchise Thuney again next year, and risk having to pay him — after the cap remains, at best, flat after the pandemic — $17.74 million (120 percent of his ’20 cap) in 2021. Thuney’s agent, Mike McCartney, represents Kirk Cousins and is not afraid of playing the tag game. It’s a weapon for a player with little health risk and Thuney has been an Iron Man to this point.

So right now, the Patriots face playing 2020 with Thuney, paying him $15 million and getting the same third-round comp pick in 2022.

That might make sense if you weren’t already paying Mason $9 million. It makes no sense now.

Belichick, scrambling after Tom Brady left for Tampa, thought he should get more than a third-round compensatory pick for Thuney — especially if he went to a salivating divisional rival like the Dolphins or Jets — so Belichick figured he’d tag and trade Thuney, for at least a second-round pick. Made sense in theory. But then Belichick heard crickets on the trade front.

I don’t want to hear from all of you who will try to explain Belichick’s decision by thinking the Patriots are here because the team is going to be a run-first team and it’s part of some brilliant master plan, especially with Cam Newton, to load up for one season?

Come on, let’s live in reality, people.

The reality was worse: due to this year's spending spree, the Patriots will get absolutely nothing for Thuney leaving — no compensatory picks — due to how many free agents the Patriots signed. 

The was a one big L for the Patriots, even before the offensive line started off this season terribly without Thuney.

PATRIOTS LOST: $15 million in cash/cap space, 3rd-round pick at a minimum.

Patriots could have received more in a trade, but if the Patriots just let Thuney walk after the 2019 season, they would have $15 million more to spend (no need to trade Gilmore) and another third-round pick at a minimum.

Tom Brady's last extension meant little compensation, more dead cap

One of the least-talked-about issues in Brady's exit from the Patriots' side was the final "extension" given to him and all the havoc it wreaked.

Everyone knows the Patriots gave Brady the power to leave without the franchise tag, meaning they would only get, at best, a third-round compensatory pick when he walked.

But why did the Patriots have to do that at all?

If the Patriots did nothing to Brady's contract, he would have been paid $15 million ($8 million less than he wound up being paid).

The Patriots knew Brady was going to leave after the season after giving him the extension, so why give it to him at all? They spent more in '19, incurred more dead cap in 2020, lost the franchise tag that would have helped in a trade, and received the same compensation.

What was the point? Do you really think Brady was not going to play in '19 under that deal? I know he threatened to do that, but Brady, the ultimate team guy, walking out on his team? Come on, no way he would have done that.

Would it have closed the door on his return in 2020? Absolutely. Was there much chance he was staying after the extension? Nope.

PATRIOTS LOST: $21.5 million ($8 million raise, '20 dead cap), franchise tag, likely Day 1 pick.

Jimmy Garoppolo dealt too late

Everyone and their mother knows the Patriots' trade of Garoppolo — after calling just one team and telling them the terms — was awful in many different ways.

Not only did waiting so long to do it tick off Brady, but the timing was terrible.

The Patriots should have traded Garoppolo the offseason after beating the Falcons in the Super Bowl. Brady had won the war. Trade Garoppolo, give Brady a 5-year extension and all would have been right.

Belichick did none of those things and that was the beginning of the end of the dynasty with Brady.

Patriots would have received at least a second-round pick, if not more.

Ok, so they kept Garoppolo into 2017. Not terrible with a 40-plus QB. Never know with injury. But have an exit plan. At the least, the Patriots should have been thinking they would tag and trade Garoppolo after 2017. Did it with Matt Cassel. (Anyone out there still saying it couldn't have been done, is just wrong.) It looked like that was the direction after trading Jacoby Brissett before the season. Who would trade two young backups in one season? No one. But the Patriots did. It made no sense to anyone, including those inside the building.

To trade Garoppolo during the season limits the market. To only call one team and not open the bidding is worse.

All of it was bad. There was nothing good in the Garoppolo trade.

PATRIOTS LOST: At least one Day 1 draft pick

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Here are the other sub-optimal trades in recent years. None of them were major screwups (Chandler Jones had to go, the return was not great), and the Patriots certainly had some successes, but this is a lot.

OTHER FAILED DEALS

2016

Chandler Jones to Cardinals for 2nd-round pick, OG Jonathan Cooper
5th-round pick for DE Barkevious Mingo
4th-round pick for DB Eric Rowe
5th-round pick for TE AJ Derby

2017

2nd-round pick for DE Kony Ealy and a 3rd
4th-round pick for TE Dwayne Allen
5th-round pick for DE Cassius Marsh
Jacoby Brissett for Phillip Dorsett

2018

5th-round pick for WR Josh Gordon

2019

5th-round pick for DE Michael Bennett
4th-round pick for OL Jermaine Eluemuno
6th-round pick for C Russell Bodine
2nd-round pick for WR Mohammed Sanu

2020

Rob Gronkowski for 4th-round pick

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NEXT UP: JC JACKSON

So now with Gilmore gone, Jackson steps into the role as the Patriots' No. 1 cornerback. He is also heading into the final year of his contract. The Patriots have been trying to extend him for a while, and Jackson's agents have wisely not bitten. They know what they have, and that the cap is due to explode.

Without Gilmore, Jackson has all the leverage. If the Patriots don't pony up, they're left with nothing but Jonathan Jones and hopefuls (Shaun Wade, Joejuan Williams, D'Angelo Ross) at cornerback. They have not taken a CB in the past two drafts.

Unless the Patriots are willing to pay market value, then there is no incentive for Jackson to sign an extension. If he hasn't signed one by now, it's doubtful he will.

Jackson, 26 in November, should be content to play next season under the franchise tag, projected to be $17.4 million guaranteed. If the Patriots tagged him again in 2023, it would be at least $21 million. That's the starting point in negotiations: about $40 million guaranteed. Again, that's just the starting point.

Jackson has all the leverage in this situation. There is no excuse for the Patriots to not have a plan for how to deal with Jackson, so they aren't late again on another player. The options right now:

- Give him a contract extension now that is market value, including the potential tags;
- Tag him for one season, gives you time to draft/sign and develop players;
- Be ok with tagging him for two seasons and then waiving goodbye.

No reason to be late this time.