Editor's Note: With Christmas falling on a Saturday this year, going to make this a Friday/Saturday combo plate so we can spend time with the family. Thank you in advance. We'll be full-go on Sunday. If you're at the game, monitor my Twitter feed. Will be behind section 123 about an hour before kickoff to say hi to our members! And don't be afraid to hand out some BSJ gift subscriptions as stocking stuffers!
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My view on this matchup hasn't really changed since the first time around — before the weather became such a factor that it wasn't a normal ballgame.
But since both teams have suffered defeats since the last matchup, I do think some things have changed.
The Bills fell behind the Bucs 24-3 and lost 33-27 in OT, and then defeated the Panthers. The Patriots fell behind the Colts 20-0 and were defeated 27-17.
The Patriots, winners of seven straight before the loss in Indy, got a needed dose of reality in a tough environment and against a team that is very similar to them. Two good, tough physical teams that are well-coached. Patriots were clearly outplayed and that should serve them well this week.
For the Bills, I think the loss to the Patriots and what transpired in Tampa could shape them in this matchup as well.
They are fascinating dynamics and, I have to admit, it has me a little worried for the Patriots this time around. I go between thinking the Colts loss was the perfect timing and they'll be on point and blow out the Bills. I also have 2010 vibes where the visiting team (Jets) is sort of waiting in the weeds to deliver payback after an embarrassing defeat, and deliver a knockout punch at Gillette Stadium.
I could see either happening, especially when it comes to the single biggest player in this game, Josh Allen.
Simply put, if he is the player many believe him to be — an uber-talented (he is) elite QB who should be an annual MVP candidate that will keep the Bills near the top of the AFC for the next decade — then Allen should play great in this game and deliver a huge, signature win for himself and the city of Buffalo.
But is that going to happen?
In my opinion, it will not. Allen may become that player in time, but I don't think he's still that player. I think he's full of promise, much like Andrew Luck (had his on faux AFC Championship Game run), but will take more time to deliver, if he ever does.
I nearly came over to the other side during the second half of the Tampa game. Yes, Allen had a huge hand in them falling way behind in the game. But he also was terrific for much of the second half. Running and throwing, he put the team on his back and nearly pulled it off while Tom Brady played an awful second half.
Allen appeared to have his big moment, where everything clicks and a very good player ascends to the next level.
But, it didn't happen.
Like against New England on the final drive, Allen could not put the team into the end zone and had to settle for overtime with a FG. The greats find a way to score a TD and win the game. Given a second chance in overtime to win the game, Allen went three and out. There are no excuses. Allen had two chances to win a game he dug his team a huge hole, and he failed.
Greatness, once again, eluded his grasp.
OK, fair enough. But what if Allen took the second half and built off it into the next game, and showed that he learned something? He did not.
If the Panthers had a FG kicker available and Cam Newton wasn't awful, the Bills are in a dogfight at home vs. Carolina. As it was, Allen was mediocre. Despite a running game that actually came to life, Allen only completed 56 percent of his passes and just one of his scoring drives was over 50 years. Allen threw a terrible interception that gave Carolina life at 14-0 and led to a 14-8 game before halftime, and he took four sacks in the game and two of them were terrible.
So with some data to go on, what did the second half mean for Allen in Tampa? Absolutely nothing. He's still the exact same player, and that's guy who will be coming into Foxborough on Sunday.
That Allen is not good enough. He has to be better than that. He needs to be guy Bills fans and some media members think he is — Superman. And if he isn't that player on Sunday, a truly great player in every sense of the word, you can't give him a pass. He needs to be called on it. He gets paid $43 million annually on his new contract. Just being good to very good is not enough. He gets paid to be great, the Bills pay him to be great and skimp in other areas — he needs to cover up those personnel ills, just like Brady did here for years.
There should be no excuses. No Adam Beasley and Gabriel Davis? Too bad. Who do you think Mac Jones is throwing to, Randy Moss? If Allen gets beat by Jones, a player who has half the physical talent of Allen, Allen should be embarrassed and he should never be mentioned as an MVP candidate again.
This is Allen's time. Good or bad, he's going to earn it.
CONFIDENT/WORRIED LIST VS. BILLS IN REMATCH
Confident list
1. The Patriots will be able to run on the Bills, again. Jones may throw more than three passes this time, but I see no reason why Buffalo will suddenly be better in the run game against the Patriots, especially after the Patriots' blockers (Isaiah Wynn, Jonnu Smith) were likely read the riot act this week after their failings in Indy. Jerry Hughes and Gregory Rosseau at still soft on the edges and finesse players. The Bills don't have much on the interior, especially with NT Star Lotulelei not practicing at all. The linebackers are not good unless they're shooting gaps, and the Patriots will adjust to that. With the weather change, the Bills will have to respect the pass more. It should be another 200 yards-plus running game.
2. Matthew Judon will get back on track. Unless LT Dion Dawkins comes off the COVID list suddenly, rookie Spencer Brown is going to be at LT again and he's going to get wrecked if Judon is still the same player he was in the first half of the season. If Judon doesn't pop off, something is really wrong with him and I would be very worried.
3. Stefon Diggs will be shut down. With no Beasley and Davis, the Patriots are going to make Allen beat them with Emmanuel Sanders and Dawson Knox. Diggs will get doubled, and Knox will get a lot of attention on third down. Good luck.
Worried list
1. Allen running. If I'm Brian Daboll and the Bills and I know this is basically a do-or-die game for my team, I'm throwing everything into this game. That means the offensive approach starts with Allen as the focal point of the running game. The Patriots always have issues with athletic QBs, and I'm building off Tampa and using Allen the same way. Designed runs, scrambles, etc. Make the Patriots defend and honor everything.
2. Safety Jordan Poyer/Micah Hyde: Those two should have been embarrassed after the first game and their dealings with the media. They are both excellent players and can do a lot of damage to the Patriots' scheme if Mac Jones isn't on point. Look for them to take care of Hunter Henry and to get involved heavily in the running game. They could flip this game by themselves with turnovers, and they definitely have attitude about this game.
“I don’t think I’ve ever seen a number one defense get as much backlash and as much talk down on as much as we have been this year,” Poyer told the Pat McAfee Show. “Nobody likes to talk about the Buffalo Bills defense. … We’re playing consistent football. Obviously there’s some things we want to continue to get better at. But yeah, it definitely pisses me off when the media talks about that. But hey, it’s a good pissed off. It’s a pissed off like, all right, ‘F ya’ll.’ We’re gonna show you all what we’re about. That’s just kind of our mindset.”
Poyer is also ticked off he got snubbed for the Pro Bowl.
3. The Bills' mentality: They have to be embarrassed about what happened on their home field and have to feel like they owe the Patriots something. If they win this game, that first matchup is forgotten. If they think they are a great team and still have the AFC East throne, they win this game. They should have all the motivation in the world for this one.
BETONLINE.AG GAME PICK
Patriots -2.5, 43 O/U
If the Patriots beat the Colts, I would pick the Bills big in this one. But while I'm still worried about Buffalo coming in like the Jets in 2010, I think the Patriots will limit their mistakes at home after the loss, and I don't think Allen is ready to be great. He'll turn the ball over and the Patriots will eventually win going away, destroying everything the Bills have built.
New England 35, Bills 24
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Josh McDaniels, along with any other assistant coach around the league, can receive requests to interview virtually with any NFL team that does not have a coach for 2022 starting at 8 a.m. on Tuesday. This was a new rule change this year. Right now, the Raiders and Jaguars are the only teams that fit the category. A team can deny that request. Kind of interesting timing that the Patriots face the Jaguars at home next weekend. McDaniels will have a week to study at least their defensive personnel. You have to wonder if Belichick, after what transpired last year with the Giants opening (Belichick let Joe Judge speak with them, but didn't inform McDaniels), will allow the Jaguars to interview McDaniels at some point that weekend in person (if it's allowed, it might not be).
2. There's one essential question about the Jaguars' search that will determine whether or not McDaniels will even listen, and I haven't seen an answer to this anywhere: Are the Khans just looking for a caretaker who will keep a lot of Urban Meyers' infrastructure (i.e. do it the cheap way), or are they prepared to start over from scratch. If it's the former — and you could make the argument it worked for the Colts, if under different circumstances — then McDaniels won't waste his time. If it's the latter, he would likely listen but there are still serious questions. An appealing job for sure, if the Khans do it the right way. They should talk to Robert Kraft, who made a lot of mistakes like them until he finally realized he just need to pay to find the right coach and structure. Trade, pay and changes ... Kraft paid to get it right. You can't get it right by going cheap.
3. I think Tom Brady's play, from 2019 to the Bucs' slow run to the Super Bowl, and now the past two weeks, have illustrated that Brady, in the latter stages of his career, is largely a byproduct of his surroundings. He needed a great offensive line, weapons and Playoff Lenny Fournette to win a Super Bowl (they barely emerged from the NFC). Brady can play great for stretches, but he has been propped up a bit down there. The Patriots could not do that, which led to the 2019 whimper.
4. Dolphins fans are getting all lathered up that have won six straight games to level their record at 7-7. Six of those teams (Jets twice) are either in last place and next to last place and have a combined record of 18-42. The Dolphins' one good win, came against a Ravens team that is imploding and are out of the playoffs right now.
5. That was a good win for the Titans against the Niners on Thursday night. Not a great night for Jimmy Garoppolo but he played well in big stretches. The Titans got one piece, AJ Brown, back in a huge way. I would be very worried about this team in the AFC. If they get everyone back, they might be the best team in the conference.
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Happy holidays and Merry Christmas to you and yours from everyone at BSJ. Can't tell you how thankful we are for your support.