Bedard: Confident/worried list - Bills almost perfectly constructed to take down Patriots ... almost

General manager Brandon Beane and coach Sean McDermott are no dummies.

When the duo arrived in Buffalo in 2017 from Carolina, they knew exactly what division they were joining. They knew who owned the division for going on two decades.

So they basically went on a mission to create a team that would, first and foremost, compete with the Patriots. That would seem like a no-brainer, but one only needs to look at the Patriots' dominance in the division since 2001 to know how often that has been successfully done.

Not very often.

This isn't about last season and the Bills' season sweep of the Patriots. We all know, especially now, that was a one-off, a reloading season for the Patriots. The referendum on the Beane/McDermott anti-Patriots plan is coming with two meetings in the next four weeks. But basically, it's all on Monday night in Buffalo. The Bills have to win this game. They can't continue their slide by losing at home, at night, with terrible weather conditions (wind chill in the teens, winds over 20 mph), and then expect to return the favor at Gillette.

And the Bills have constructed just about the perfect team to combat the Patriots. Just about.

There are four key swing areas that, if they go the Patriots' way — and they usually do — the Bills will still be the Charlie Brown of Patriots wannabe rivals. And those areas comprise our Worried/Confident List (both ways) followed by our game pick:

WORRIED LIST

1. Josh Allen: If you're going to take down the Patriots, you need to start with a dual-threat QB — a QB who is a better thrower than runner, but who can run. Go through the Patriots in the last decade, and those types of QBs have given them fits (Deshaun Watson, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers). If the QB is a better runner than thrower (Lamar Jackson), the Patriots' scheme can deal with that.

But if Allen is on his game and well-protected, he's almost perfectly constructed to take down the Patriots. Not only is he big and fast, but he has an incredible arm. The Patriots have to account for him in the running game — his ability to take off running limits the amount of man coverage you play, and you have to defend the entire field in the passing game against him. He is not limited to half-field or first reads. He can sling it anywhere, very long into the play. Of course none of that is unique to just the Patriots' defense. But they have to see him twice a year.

2. Speed and dice: With especially this version of the Patriots and how they have become more zone coverage reliant, the Bills have everything to just spread the Patriots out, and then either hit them with the run or the pass (or both with Allen option plays). The emergence of Matt Breida at RB almost gives the Bills a K-Gun ability to go spread, no-huddle and gun-runs sprinkled in. Get the Patriots spread out with WRs Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, Emmanuel Sanders and TE Dawson Knox, then use Breida to keep the defense honest — that's exactly how I would combat the Patriots' beef up front. If the Patriots are stretched out from sideline to sideline, they look very slow. And Allen has all the controls at the line of scrimmage. If the Patriots go with a light box, Allen can change to a run or keep it himself. That would be the nightmare scenario for the Patriots' defense, in my opinion.

3. Athletes at all three levels who tackle: If you're trying to defend the Patriots' offense, you have to have several athletes on the defensive line, a linebacker who can run with backs, good enough cornerbacks, and two very good safeties. With NT Star Lotulelei expected back from Covid protocols, he brings back a much-needed run-stuffer to Ed Oliver, Harrison Phillips and Vernon Butler, who are more pass rushers and a bit undisciplined. The Bills have edge players all over the place with Jerry Hughes, Gregory Rousseau, AJ Epenesa and Mario Addison. Tremaine Edmunds and Matt Milano are the Mutt and Jeff of linebacker — the former big and strong, the latter quick and smart. Even without Tre'Davious White, corners Levi Wallace and Taron Johnson are excellent, and they have two of the best safeties in the game with Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde. The Bills are big, athletic, fast and experienced on defense. They won't surprise you with scheme, but they are damn good at what they do.

CONFIDENT LIST

1. Sean McDermott will lose it, so will the team: Not sure what it is about the Patriots, but it causes the Bills' head coach to lose his mind during these games, and that does not help his team at all. The Bills are one of the most penalized teams in the league, and that comes from the head coach. In the biggest games, McDermott loses the big picture and game management because he gets bogged down by officiating calls, or frustration over what the Patriots are doing. Remember this?

Expect Belichick — and possibly sons — to find a way to get under McDermott's skin.

2. Josh Allen: Yes, he's a problem, but he can also be the gift that keeps on giving if you can get him playing from behind, and cover long enough for him to try and be a hero. Allen will throw balls to the Patriots, and he will likely get strip-sacked. Will the Patriots make those miscues hurt?

3. Tremaine Edmunds: Belichick is probably pissed he wasn't able to draft the 6-4, 260-pound middle linebacker. He's like Brandon Spikes with more athletic ability. Belichick loves those guys. But he, better than anyone, knows the limitations of those players. Edmunds will get sucked up into playaction, and will be exposed in man coverage. Look for Josh McDaniels to do both repeatedly as a way to move the ball in key spots. 

___________________________

The Bills have a lot of the right pieces to win consistently against the Patriots — more than previous pretenders — but they aren't solid enough in key spots to actually do it. Will they this week?

GAME PICK

Line: Bills by 2.5. 42.5 o/u

Both of these teams are basically untested to this point — both have played very easy schedules, especially the Bills. There is so much we don't know about these teams in this spot this season. Anything could happen.

But with the Bills at home, and Mac Jones much more of a question mark in the cold and wind than Allen, we see the Bills taking a tight one that looks a little better after a late score.

Bills 23, Patriots 13.