One of the least-talked-about factors when it comes to Mac Jones and the Patriots' passing game — and, really, the team's success — this season has been pressure.
When the Patriots started 1-3 and then 2-4, everyone loved to nitpick at Jones and his perceived limitations, be it his physical skills or his lack of want to throw the ball deep or into tight coverage.
There was hardly any discussion about the enormous pressure he was under due to both inferior line play, and the slow improvement of his targets into a largely new system.
Now that we have more data on Jones and the offense, we can definitively say the correlation between Jones' play and the pressure allowed by the line has been grossly underreported.
The numbers through 10 games, six wins, four losses, are clear: protect Jones moderately well (and run it efficiently) and he and the Patriots stand a very good shot at having a good day.
Allow Jones to be harrassed and he and the Patriots are likely to struggle.
It's basically just that simple.
Sunday's 45-7 shellacking of the Browns brought it all home. Jones was pressured just 22.6 percent of the time and touched just four times — both season-lows — and he delivered his best game of the season. The only other game Jones faced pressure less than 30 percent of the time was his second-best game of the season against the Texans (24.2 percent, 4 hits).
Step back a bit and look at all the wins and losses and a clear baseline for pressure emerges.
If Jones is pressured on 33 percent or less of his dropbacks, the Patriots have a good shot at winning. Anything over that and it gets dicey.
This is not unusual for a pocket quarterback. In my experience over the years observing the likes of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, anything over 30 percent pressure rate is not great — especially if a few hard hits are mixed. When you get to 35 or more, the chances of that QB being effective diminish. Jones being younger likely gives him a little bit of an advantage, for now.
It's literally as clear as day. In the Patriots' four losses, Jones was pressured on nearly 38 percent of his dropbacks and was hit on average 11.25 times.
In the six wins, Jones is pressured 29.3 percent and hit an average of 5.33 times.
Certainly the line playing better has been a big component of this, and Trent Brown being back at right tackle (a half-sack allowed) was a boost. But Josh McDaniels mixing calls and keeping the defense off balance aids this greatly as well, as does working with a lead. Just look at the Browns on Sunday. As soon as the Browns had to resort to a dropback game with Baker Mayfield, he and they were done.
With a lead and the offense executing at its best level all season, McDaniels was able to change up looks and techniques to keep the Browns guessing and Myles Garrett from being effective.
The sequence at the two-minute warning was a great example. Thanks to Jones making a check at the line, Rhamondre Stevenson hit a 16-yard run up the gut. On the next play, the Patriots faked to Stevenson but went to Kendrick Bourne on an 11-yard run around the left side. Then they ran the same play but with a screen around the right side to Stevenson tacked on for 8.
Middle. Left. Right.
Not only is that tiring for a defense and pass rushers, but it effectively makes the defenders feel they can't trust their eyes, which also slows their feet. Basically, their heads were spinning.
What you saw on Sunday was the Patriots' offense at its near peak against the perfect undisciplined opponent. Yes, Jones was great on Sunday, but that's because he was allowed to be due to improved protection — thanks to the line and McDaniels.
Jones being as good as he was on Sunday was a team effort.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
Here are the positional ratings against the Browns:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (5 out of 5)
There were only two decisions I had some issues with. Hunter Henry was open when Jones went deep into double coverage to Nelson Agholor. And N'Keal Harry and Agholor were coming open when Jones, with great protection, checked down for no gain to Stevenson. On 39 dropbacks, that's it. Jones was outstanding in this game with 7 great throws and two noticeable run checks into better plays. After this game, the priority should be on Jones' protection. When he's comfortable and unrushed, he can make surgical strikes. Allow him to get harassed, and he gets sped up like all pocket QBs.
Running backs (5 out of 5)
Stevenson had a drop, but otherwise looked like a franchise, every-down back with speed, power, vision and surprising elusivity. With Damien Harris on his way back, the Patriots have a nice lightning and thunder thing going in the backfield, and Brandon Bolden and his quickening feet are no slouch.
Receivers (4.5 out of 5)
A few issues with blocking from N'Keal Harry — for every good crack on Myles Garrett he had (and is that guy ever going to look for those?!), Harry had blocks that didn't work out — but largely this group was suddenly flush with playmakers. There were, finally, big plays (10+ yard runs, 20+ catches) all over the place. ... Kendrick Bourne had five all on his own, including that ridiculous TD catch. Been waiting for him to be featured more in the running game and it was eye-opening. ... Good to see Jakobi Meyers rebound from a rough game with his first career TD and the reaction from his teammates spoke volumes. ... Hunter Henry has now risen to gameplan level — all opponents worth a darn going forward will attempt to take him away in the red zone. Good the Patriots showcased just about everyone in this game. They have options.
Offensive line (4 out of 5)
Trent Brown was a very real factor in this game. Wasn't perfect, but it was pretty damn close with 5 ridiculously good run blocks. He was killing people in the run game. ... Isaiah Wynn was not very good in this game, as he was responsible for 64 percent of the pressures. I think the Patriots are loathe to move Brown with his injury issues, but this might have given them the opening. It's a very tough call to what alignment is better. ... It was a bit of a surprise to see Ted Karras get the LG over Mike Onwenu but he rewarded it with just a half-sack and 1.5 stuffed runs. Will be interesting to see if that continues or was it one-week thing to be prepared for Brown rest or injury and not wanting to make two switches midgame if the worst happened. ... Order of effectiveness: David Andrews, Brown, Karras, Shaq Mason, Wynn.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (4 out of 5)
For Lawrence Guy and Christian Barmore to each have four impactful play against the Browns' great interior line — with no minus plays — speaks volumes. Barmore passed this test with flying colors. It was more impressive than his flashier games .... Deatrich Wise continues to perform much better in his subpackage role. Hmm, funny how that happened. ... Bit of a quieter game for Matthew Judon, which could be a good sign they don't need him to be superman every week.
Linebackers (4 out of 5)
Not sure why it came out this way, but PFF hated Ja'Whaun Bentley in this game. I thought he was pretty good outside a bad run fit that allowed a 24-yard run. ... This was the best Kyle Van Noy has looked this season.
Secondary (4 out of 5)
Outside of Adrian Phillips giving up a few plays, including a touchdown, this was a nice game from this unit. ... JC Jackson was quietly top-notch with three pass breakups. ... Kyle Dugger's interception was nice but a totally boneheaded read from Baker Mayfield. The disguise from the Patriots' was that good. I don't think Mayfield studies much film, or does it effectively.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
THREE UP
Rhamondre Stevenson: Jones was good but Stevenson and the rest of the Patriots' varied running game — it was Kyle Shanahan-esque — drove the bus in this game.
Mac Jones: Had his best protection of the season and he looked like a surgeon. You don't say...
Kendrick Bourne/Trent Brown: Both were too good to leave one off. If Bourne makes this many plays in every game, Patriots will be cooking. Same with Brown manhandling people.
THREE DOWN
Isaiah Wynn: We're getting a big enough sample size. Maybe this is as good as he's going to be.
Adrian Phillips: Got run over a couple times as a linebacker and allowed the lone TD on fourth down.
Jakobi Meyers, punt returner: Just go catch the ball.