A year ago, the Red Sox appeared to limit their free-agent pursuits to players who would command smaller salaries and shorter term. Of the free agents the Sox signed, only Kiké Hernandez got a multi-year commitment (two years, $14 million) and only Garrett Richards got a base salary of $10 million or more.
Could that philosophy be shifting this winter?
Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom seemed to hint at that possibility Sunday night. Bloom was asked if the Red Sox might be more willing to sign a player who had been offered and rejected a qualifying offer than they were a year ago. Such a signing would result in the Red Sox forfeiting a draft pick and some international signing bonus money.
"I think we're in a better position than we were a year ago,'' said Bloom. "And even a year ago, I remember we talked about it and I said it was certainly something that wasn't off the table for us. Now, at the time I said that, knowing that with those guys (on the market last winter), most likely I wouldn't line up. I don't know how this offseason is going to play out, but I think where we're positioned now, with the depth that we have internally -- although we're nowhere close to where we want to be -- we are in a better position than we were.
"So it's likelier than there could be a better fit there. But we're just going to, as we do with any move, assess all the implications and if it's something that makes sense for us, we've got to be ready to pounce.''
Ironically, whether the Sox get involved with a qualified free agent may well depend on what happens with their own qualified free agent. The Sox extended a qualifying offer to free-agent lefty Eduardo Rodriguez Sunday, and Rodriguez has until Nov. 17 to accept or reject that offer. If he accepts, the Red Sox payroll for 2022 will grow by at least $18.4 million, the amount of the qualifying offer. (Bloom also said Sunday that the Sox would have an interest in negotiating a multi-year deal for Rodriguez in the event he accepted the QO.)
If, on the other hand, Rodriguez rejects the offer and signs elsewhere, not only would it create payroll space, but the Sox would stand to get a draft pick in return for Rodriguez signing with another team, thereby, in theory at least, making it easier for the Sox to lose a pick of their own by signing another qualified free agent.
Among those given qualifying offers Sunday by their former teams;
STARTING PITCHERS: Justin Verlander, Noah Syndergaard, Robbie Ray and Rodriguez.
RELIVERS: Raisel Iglesias.
INFIELDERS: Brandon Belt, Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story.
OUTFIELDERS: Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto
MULTI-POSITION: Chris Taylor
Some of the above players are not good fits for the Red Sox roster. Belt and Freeman can be ruled out, since the Sox have Bobby Dalbec to handle the position and Triston Casas likely no more than a full season away from contributing. Additionally, the Sox may still find a way to bring back Kyle Schwarber, who could be given playing time at the position.
Iglesias is an elite reliever, but few teams in the analytic era would ever justify a multi-year commitment to a pitcher in his 30's -- Iglesias turns 32 in January -- who will be asked to pitch fewer than 80 innings per season.
The four shortstops are all elite players, but the Sox have Xander Bogaerts potentially signed through 2025, though Bogaerts does have an opt-out following the 2022 season. And even while there are issues with Bogaerts defensively -- by some defensive metrics, he profiled as one of the worst at the position in the game -- Bloom noted Sunday that the Sox aren't about to look to move him off his current spot.
"I don't think you should ever take anything off the table,'' he said. "But, with that said, with both (Bogaerts and third baseman Rafael Devers), we don't have concerns with the positions they play. We love them both and feel very well set up on the left side of our infield.''
As for the outfielders, Castellanos is a poor defender and would upend the current trio of, from left to right, Alex Verdugo, Kike Hernandez and Hunter Renfroe. Castellanos may have a premium bat, but with all three outfield spots accounted for and J.D. Martinez returning as DH, there's no logical spot for Castellanos. Conforto is a better outfielder, but again, that's not a position of need.
Taylor is a Hernandez-like player, who can play both the infield and outfield, but unless the Sox want to commit to him at second base, he doesn't represent a good fit.
That leaves the starting pitchers. Verlander would be a gamble, as he's 38 and has made one appearance in the last two seasons and is coming back from Tommy John surgery. Would the Sox be willing to go, say, $40 million for two seasons? Doubtful.
Syndergaard has signaled a clear preference to remain with the Mets, and given that that team can hardly afford any more PR slip-ups by allowing popular players to depart, he likely will return.
That leaves Ray as the lone possibility. He could very well win the AL Cy Young Award next week and bidding will be furious for him.
However, given the team's past experiences in signing 30-something starting pitchers and their preference for long-term payroll flexibility, it's hard to imagine the Sox offering Ray the five-year, $130 million deal he's likely to command — even if the notion of subtracting him from a division rival may prove tempting.
