Ok, let's cut the bull and get right into it. Everyone wants to know if the Patriots will sign former Browns receiver Odell Beckham Jr. once he clears waivers at 4 p.m. Tuesday.
According to PFT, the Browns redid Beckham's contract that basically makes sure that the receiver gets the more than $7 million that's owed to him this season — if a team claims him. The teams that could fit him under their cap comfortably: Jaguars, Eagles, Broncos, Seahawks, Panthers, Washington, Chargers and Steelers.
Can't see any of those teams doing that for a receiver who has caught 100 passes once (2016 with the Giants) and has 40 catches in his last 13 games over the last two seasons — let alone one that has shot his way off of two teams in four seasons.
So that means, Beckham will be free to sign with any team. There's been a mutual admiration society between the receiver and Bill Belichick for a while, and Beckham knows how to chill out with Robert Kraft (photo above).
Here are three reasons for and against the Patriots signing Beckham, what I would do, and what I think the team will do.
THE CASE FOR
1. He's still pretty good.
It doesn't really show up in the stats but in the film from this season that I viewed, Beckham, despite being six games into his return from ACL surgery, looks explosive and quick on film. His route running is solid, but he has the reputation around the league of being a bit of freelancer — it's tough to know if he's "open" where the play is designed for him to be open.
He goes get open a lot, as shown in this hilarious video reportedly posted by Beckham's father on social media last week, which started his exit:
What's really funny about this video is that, a) almost all of these patterns are against zone coverage — the ability to get open against man coverage is what separates the really good receivers, and b) holy hell is Kevin Stefanski's system nice and QB friendly (well, at least a good QB who can throw on time).
Do I think he can physically fit into the Patriots' system? Yes. One of the essential issues in all this is: Is Beckham an upgrade over what they currently have?
My answer to that is also yes. I think Beckham, if he can get the system, is better than Nelson Agholor — the player he would displace. What that means, we'll get into that in a second. Can Beckham play the slot? A little, but not as a "slot receiver." He is an X boundary receiver.
2. It doesn't have to be about this season.
I'll get into this more later but, according to recorded NFL history, the Patriots are not going to the Super Bowl this season (I didn't say they will not, just stating a fact — it's never been done before). And what I mean by "it," is a rookie quarterback leading a team just into a Super Bowl. Never been done. So the odds are stacked against it, so why even bother, especially when you have a rookie QB who may never be the most dynamic downfield thrower?
Well, what about next season? Agholor is only on a two-year deal, albeit one that pays him $22 million with $16 million guaranteed. But they can move on from Agholor after this season with a trade, and can save money doing it.
So say you're not sold on Agholor at this point — and I'm not sure why the Patriots would be sold at this point — what would it hurt, when you're not likely playing for a Super Bowl, to give Beckham a half-year tryout and then see what you have in the offseason? Maybe Agholor takes off and you don't like Beckham. Maybe Agholor shows the Patriots he won't compete for his job and they part ways. I'm not sure exactly what Beckham would be hurting, if you're all about competition.
Unless Beckham demands no franchise tag in his new deal, the Patriots could always tag Beckham to hold onto it — but that is one big donut, a $19,127,000-sized donut.
Still, Mac Jones will not be a rookie next year. The Patriots could be real contenders in 2022. How do you pass up adding a potential talent (we really have no idea where he is at this point) like this, who's just 29, when you can't draft receivers to save your life? The Patriots just spent a combined $21 million in guaranteed money on Agholor and Kendrick Bourne ... Beckham isn't worth half that next year, a full season removed from ACL surgery? Oh, and N'Keal Harry is a free agent after this season so there's at least one WR vacancy in 2022.
3. Belichick knows he can't draft WRs.
He signed two this offseason and didn't pick up the fifth-year option on his only first-round receiver. Belichick also couldn't run to sign Antonio Brown quick enough when he came free with Vegas — that didn't exactly work out well.
Belichick seems to have admitted that he has no clue on college receivers, and he's willing to take huge risks with NFL WRs if it means he could hit big. This would go right along with the Brown move, hopefully without the baggage.
THE CASE AGAINST
1. The Patriots had a plan, and it's starting to come to fruition, so why welcome in the NFL's molotov cocktail?
After not making the playoffs last season and in the middle of a nosedive offensively over multiple seasons and QBs, the Patriots set a plan to give the offense a new identity. It started with two tight ends, an X receiver in Agholor (when they literally could have signed their receiver of choice) and a slippery Z in Kendrick Bourne. Then came the QB. It got off to an, as expected, slow start, but the Patriots seem to be building something brick by brick. Why not just see your well-laid plan through? If it works, you're rolling strong into next season with great chemistry.
If something's not working, the chances are Beckham will be available in the offseason. Considering his exit in Cleveland and that fact that he will be playing the final eight games for a team where he likely needs time to learn the offense and the quarterback, how much is his price tag going to really go up? If Beckham really has googly eyes for Belichick, why can't it wait six months — after you see if your plan was actually brilliant?
2. The trickle-down effect.
Along the same lines, the Patriots added who they added for a reason. They did not take any character risks on free agents and they seem to fit their program. Everyone's been working their tail off at this with Jones since the beginning of camp.
Say you're Agholor. You've done everything the Patriots have asked, even through some obvious frustration with a rookie QB. Say they do bring in Beckham and it's clear to you that he's going to be the X when ready, and now you have to move spots, let alone you read the writing on the wall that you could be out after this season. How do you Agholor is going to react to that? If you don't think that's an issue, you probably also think guys don't care what other players are making, and speak to Puff The Magic Dragon every night. It is real. Locker room dynamics are very real. It's part of the reason why your team won six Super Bowls.
Beckham is going to displace someone. If it's not Agholor, then it's Bourne or Meyers or Harry. And somebody is not going to be happy, and that someone could start to spread a little frustration around the locker room, and...
3. This type of receiver has never worked here for very long.
Yes, this whole move would have huge Randy Moss vibes (Chad Ochocinco, too) but ... what did that get you? How did that wind up (hint, it was not all rainbows and butterflies ... with Tom Brady as QB)? Was it really worth it?
This offense is not some bomber system. Jones is never going to direct Air Coryell. The Patriots are much better off just taking this year as data, staying the course, and then figuring out exactly what types of pieces Jones needs to be successful and to be a Super Bowl champion. Me, personally, I'd much rather invest this offseason in his Wes Welker or Julian Edelman than Moss Lite.
WHAT BEDARD WOULD DO
In the end, this was really close for me — much closer than where I was earlier in the week. The rental/test-out scenario appeals greatly to me. Basically, what's the harm? Patriots aren't winning a Super Bowl this year and if this doesn't work, how much damage can he do to this team and Jones in like 5-6 games? Why not?
But, of course, I'm also deathly afraid of the diva receiver who has never won anything of substance.
While I'm fine if they do sign Beckham, I think I would stick with my plan, not introduce anything or anyone that could derail what Jones and the passing offense are slowly building, and if I need more like Beckham, I'm risking that he will be available in the offseason and not all that expensive. I'd also be looking for that slot receiver.
WHAT I THINK BELICHICK WILL DO
In the absence of a big offer to Beckham, and it could come from someone who's a contender this season, I think Belichick will sign Beckham as a rental/tryout.
Why?
- Belichick can't draft receivers, and he needs to dip into that pool again after this season. This is the only way, as a depressed asset, that Belichick can acquire a player like this — and it will cost him basically nothing.
- If it doesn't work, Belichick can cut him ASAP or move on in the offseason.
- Jones is no fading violet — he can deal with Beckham and will tell him where to go if he needs to. Jones walks amongst all folks and did so at Alabama, which isn't always the model of stability when it comes to players.
- The Patriots could be very real contenders in 2022 and a good Beckham helps Belichick get closer to evening that Super Bowl with Brady, and to Don Shula's win total.
- It scratches an itch.
- YOLO
Yes, I think Belichick will do it.
And then we can all watch the science experiment. Good times.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Hate to say I told you about Aaron Rodgers, but I told you about Aaron Rodgers ...
Welp... https://t.co/kIpfnTZQL1 pic.twitter.com/iR2ntq5z8O
— Greg A. Bedard (@GregABedard) November 5, 2021
2. Job No. 1 on getting the Chiefs' season back on track is Andy Reid admitting Patrick Mahomes is having multiple issues which his mechanics and decision-making, and going back to basics to get by back on track. They can't keep playing the same way. They must settle him down first. It's not how people are playing the Chiefs. Stop. It's the Chiefs killing themselves and Mahomes needing to get back in rhythm with the offense.
3. Eagles players were NOT happy with Howie Roseman's attempts to trade Fletcher Cox at the deadline, according to Marcus Hayes of the Philly Inquirer:
They’re irked because they think Cox was being shopped because, the week before, he’d publicly complained about being misused in a chronically docile defense. They’re suspicious that Roseman wanted to trade Cox because he’d rocked the boat tenuously captained by ill-suited, first-time head coach Nick Siriainni and his equally overmatched defensive coordinator, Jonathan Gannon.
Cox had confronted coaches on the sideline after a play call in a blowout loss to the reeling Raiders: “I didn’t agree with what was called on the defense. ... I don’t get paid to play screens,” Cox said indignantly. “I get paid to sack the quarterback, play in the backfield, tackle.”
4. A headline I did not expect from the NY Daily News: Giants and Odell Beckham Jr. reunion would be perfect fit.
Yeah, that's just what Joe Judge needs.
5. I have probably been living under a rock, but the Tampa Bay Times pointed out Tom Brady is on pace for a career-high 53 TD passes. And he's barely had Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown. Meanwhile, the Bucs had 48 sacks last year. They have 17 through eight games this year.