In the next 10 days or so -- to be more precise, within five days of the conclusion of the World Series -- the Red Sox will know a lot more about where two key players fit (or don't fit) into their plans for 2022.
On one, the Red Sox will have enormous control. The other, the Sox will be merely interested bystanders.
The latter involves whether J.D. Martinez opts out of the final year of his five-year deal signed with the Sox in 2018. Some members of the organization honestly aren't sure what to expect in regards to Martinez's decision-making. On the one hand, it's a given that no team is likely to top the $19.35 million Martinez has coming from the Sox in 2022. On the other hand, he would presumably only leave for a multi-year offer that could provide him with guaranteed salaries for 2023, 2024 and perhaps beyond -- which isn't out of the question given that Martinez remains an elite run-producer, leading the league in doubles and slugging .518.
Say, for example, a team gave Martinez a three-year deal worth $45 million - a not unreasonable deal for the right organization. That would represent an AAV (annual average value) of $15 million, a dip for the $19.35 million due him in 2022.
But Martinez could ask himself: If I play out my deal with the Red Sox in 2022, what are the odds that I can do better than $25.65 million for 2022-2023? If he fears that might be difficult to attain -- especially at age 35.
The other call will be one in which the Sox will have more input.
They will have five days after the Series to determine whether to present pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez with a qualifying offer of $18.4 million for 2022. (That number is determined by the mean salary of the top 125 highest-paid players for the previous season).
On its face, that would seem excessive for a player coming off a season in which he was 13-8 with a 4.74 ERA. But as has been noted many times before, those numbers are deceiving. Rodriguez was the victim of both bad luck and bad defensive support.
His expected ERA (xERA) was 3.55, nearly identical to his figure for 2019 (3.53) when Rodriguez enjoyed a career-best season with 19 wins and a 3.81 ERA. In fact, by nearly every other measure -- including strikeout rate, walk rate, hard-hit rate -- Rodriguez had a far better year than the traditional numbers suggest.
True, it wasn't so good that it would otherwise be worth $18.4 million on the open market. But from a team standpoint, a one-year deal would limit their exposure. Surely, a big market team can afford an inflated salary for one season -- especially one with few long-term commitments. It certainly beats the alternative of desperately signing Rodriguez to a multi-year deal worth tens of millions.
And, in the unlikely event that Rodriguez rejects the offer, it would mean the Sox would get a draft pick following the Competitive Balance round that follows the first round. Loosely translated, that means the Sox would get somewhere around the 40th pick next June if they made a qualifying offer, Rodriguez rejected it and he signed elsewhere.
What's in it for Rodriguez to accept such an offer? He would get a chance to be the second-highest-paid pitcher in the Sox for 2022 -- behind only Chris Sale -- while having an opportunity to enjoy a better season and rebuild his value for next winter -- a time in which the industry will not be facing labor uncertainty, and presumably, in better financial shape as the country further rebounds from the COVID pandemic.
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On the flip side of the qualifying offer, there's this to ponder: Would the Red Sox consider making a run at a free agent who has a qualifying offer attached?
Ordinarily, I'd say no. Forfeiting a draft pick, along with $500,000 in international free agent pool money, would be anathema to Chaim Bloom and his baseball operations staff, who place an enormous value on stockpiling draft picks, the better to stock the player development system.
But a unique circumstance could have them be willing to make an exception.
Last summer, the Sox failed to sign their second-round pick, outfielder Jud Fabian out of the University of Florida. Because draft picks in the first two rounds are protected, the Sox will be given the 41st pick in next summer's draft as compensation.
As it happens, signing a player who rejected a qualifying offer would cost them their second-highest pick, or ... the pick they stand to gain from not signing Fabian. The Sox wouldn't have to forfeit their own first-round selection, nor their own second-round pick. In essence, they would be sacrificing a pick from last year's draft. That makes it a little easier to stomach.
And just who might be a good fit for them in this scenario? One of two free agents from the Toronto Blue Jays: lefty Robby Ray or infielder Marcus Semien.
Ray would give the Sox a 30-year-old front-line starter who might end up winning the Cy Young Award after compiling a 2.84 ERA for Toronto while leading the AL with the highest strikeout-per-nine innings rate (11.2) and simultaneously learning how to avoid walks (a career-low rate of 2.4 per nine innings).
Semien, who signed a one-year deal with the Jays last winter, had another spectacular year, with a .538 slugging percentage and 45 homers to go along with standout defense at second. Semien could play second base for the Sox, filling a position of need. And he could be a hedge against losing Xander Bogaerts to an opt-out clause following 2022 since Semien came up a shortstop and is regarded as a plus-defender. Semien is also widely respected as a leader and is incredibly durable. Over the last four seasons, he's missed a grand total of 10 games.
Signing high-end free agents -- both would command nine-figure deals, with Ray potentially coming close to $200 million. They would be the kind of long-term investments that would seem to handcuff teams and make "sustainability'' -- Bloom's watchword -- more difficult. Bloom prefers flexibility, and with few exceptions, isn't in favor of deals that eat up significant chunks of payroll.
But either would lift the Sox into the position of, at the very least, co-favorite in their own division and perhaps help them close the gap that exists between themselves and the Astros -- to say nothing of the prospect of weakening a team (Toronto) in their own division. And there's this: other than Sale (signed through 2024) and Bogaerts (through 2025, though the opt-out is just 12 months away), the Sox aren't tied down with a lot of contractual commitments.
Semien is a safe investment, and while acknowledging that spending big for top-of-the-market starters always comes with some risk, Ray is less of a gamble than most -- in four of the last five full seasons, Ray has made 28 or more starts.
Likely? Hardly. But impossible? No, especially with the "extra'' draft pick to soften the blow.
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If you love the idea of watching pitchers hit, keep a close watch on Game 5 of the World Series Sunday night. It's likely to be your last chance.
Currently, pitchers hit in games between National League clubs (regular season and playoffs) and in World Series games in which the National League team is host -- as will be the case for the Atlanta Braves Sunday night.
But every expectation is that, as part of the next CBA, the DH will become universal throughout the game and the notion of pitchers hitting for themselves will go the way of flannel uniforms and scheduled doubleheaders.
The game, at all levels, has been steadily moving away from pitchers hitting since the American League adopted it in 1973. While pitchers hitting for themselves has the potential to add a layer of strategy -- when to lift the pitcher, double-switches etc. -- both owners and players now agree that the game is better off with more offense and the reduced risk of injury to pitchers.
The expectation that the DH will be added to the NL is tempered at least somewhat by the fact that there was widespread agreement that it would be part of the 2021 season, too, after it was added to the NL in 2020, when a shortened summer camp heightened the injury risk. But then, the two sides failed to reach agreement.
Owners believed that the Players Association would happily accept the universal DH in exchange for expanded playoffs, but the players, as it turned out, didn't place as much value on it to make that tradeoff.
This time, with the rules in place for five or six seasons to come, any such hiccup is a far less probable outcome. The union understands that adding the DH to the NL will add another 15 more high-paying jobs. Currently, the final spot on an NL roster is likely to go to a utility player making far less than the average salary.
The problem for Martinez, of course, is that he'll have to make his decision to opt out or in long before the two sides come to an official agreement. Martinez would love to know whether he has 29 other potential bidders, rather than just. His teammate over the final two months, Kyle Schwarber, won't be as rushed, since as a free agent, he can afford to wait until the rules are in place.
