NHL Notebook: Running through some bold predictions for 2021-22 Bruins

With the 2021-22 Bruins season now finally underway, let’s go through some of our bold predictions for the Bruins this upcoming year.

Bruins hit new scoring milestones on top line

For the first time since the 1992-93 season, the Bruins have two players hit the century mark in scoring — as both Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak surpass 100 points on that potent top line. 

With both Marchand and Pastrnak another year removed from offseason surgery in 2020, the star wingers should pile on points — especially with Bruce Cassidy and his staff making a concerted effort to ease Patrice Bergeron’s workload with a hefty amount of O-zone starts. 

Marchand joins Peter Mahovlich (1974-75 and 1975-76) as just the second player in league history to record their first two 100-point campaigns in their 10th season or later — while Pastrnak becomes the first B’s player to light the lamp 50+ times in a single season since Cam Neely in 1993-94. 

So far, so good. 

Charlie McAvoy wins the Norris Trophy

Fresh off of inking an eight-year, $76 million contract, Charlie McAvoy rewards the B’s by putting together his finest season yet. The 23-year-old blueliner is once again as advertised in terms of his elite shutdown capabilities, 5v5 playmaking and transition prowess — but with a full season on Boston's top power-play unit, McAvoy satisfies some of the stingier Norris voters by piling up 52 points over an 82-game slate.

That lack of baseline production has hindered McAvoy’s candidacy for the annual accolade in years past, even when he’s arguably been the most effective D-man at both ends of the ice at 5v5 play. 

But with a lofty stat line on his side this season, McAvoy narrowly edges Cale Makar for the Norris this season — winning the first of many in his career.  And somewhere, Don Sweeney and the B’s front office let out a sigh of relief that they managed to lock him in to a deal at *just* $9.5 million per season. 

Taylor Hall scores 65+ points

The loss of David Krejci on that second line can’t be understated — especially when considering the video-game numbers that were generated on that top-six unit once Taylor Hall arrived from Buffalo back in April.

With Krejci serving as the playmaking maestro in the middle, the Hall-Krejci-Smith line outscored opponents, 13-1, during their 180 minutes of 5v5 ice time last season. And while Krejci deserves heaps of praise for his ability to orchestrate scoring chances on that unit, the veteran pivot’s departure has clouded some of the sentiment when it comes to the caliber of player that the Bruins still have in Hall.

Because even with Charlie Coyle serving as a bit of a question mark down the middle, Hall is an awfully effective play-driver on the wing — and it doesn’t seem like he’s lost a step since his impressive debut last season. 

We’ve covered it before, but be it Hall’s sterling transition game or his knack for threading the needle and generating high-danger chances, Hall is the type of player that can and will elevate the players situated around him — which should work wonders for a shot-first winger in Craig Smith and a healthy Coyle. 

Add in his expected role at the netfront on Boston’s top power-play unit, and frankly — Hall surpassing 65 points really doesn’t seem like a bold prediction to me. 

(Between Buffalo and Boston, Hall’s 2.975 high-danger passes per 60 minutes last season led most of the field of NHLers — with only Mikko Rantanen, Vitali Kravtsov, William Nylander, Artemi Panarin, Connor McDavid and Jonathan Huberdeau generating more high-danger passes over a 60-minute stretch.)

A McAvoy/Grzelcyk pairing is reunited by mid-November

Saturday’s season opener offered a bit of a glimpse as to how Boston might be allocating reps on its D corps. McAvoy might have started alongside Derek Forbort and logged the most minutes next to the UFA pickup (10:49 of 5v5 ice time together), but Cassidy had no qualms about rolling out the playmaking duo of McAvoy and Matt Grzelcyk when needed— with the BU teammates logging 3:43 of 5v5 ice time as a pair.

Forbort is a solid player, and should come in handy as part of a reworked PK unit — but given the absurd production that the Grzelcyk-McAvoy pair puts forth year in and year out (Boston outscored opponents, 20-7, in their 339:43 of 5v5 ice time last season), it seems inevitable that the pair eventually reunites and returns to being a 5v5 buzzsaw.

 Jeremy Swayman wins the 7th Player Award ... but it should go to Erik Haula

As a fan vote, the 7th Player Award has regularly turned into more of a popularity contest than an actual assessment of a player exceeding expectations — with guys like David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy taking home the honors in years past. 

Fans have done a better job recently by giving Chris Wagner, Charlie Coyle and Nick Ritchie the award over the last three seasons — but my *gut* has fans voting for Swayman after watching his talents over the span of a full season. A solid pick, but as a potential No. 1 option in net? If anything, the award should belong to an underrated contributor to the team, which is why Haula is my pick.

He may not put up some dominant scoring totals this year, and he won’t necessarily ingratiate himself to the surliest of B’s fans by dropping the gloves or doling out heavy hits like a Trent Frederic — but Haula’s style of play is infectious when he’s buzzing, and could be the primary reason why a once-rudderless B’s third line undergoes a renaissance this year.

Jake DeBrusk pots 20+ goals

Most players usually recite the same spiel when it comes to turning the page toward a new season — offering cliches about a “clean slate” and whatnot. 

But give DeBrusk plenty of credit. So far, the hot-and-cold winger has been upfront about his struggles in 2021 and has practiced what he preached as far getting back to basics and proving people wrong. 

DeBrusk has potted goals with regularity since camp opened (be it in preseason action or in Saturday’s season opener), and they’ve been a byproduct of the winger getting back to what he does best — moving his feet and driving to Grade-A ice down low. 

Be it the perks of playing with a pivot more catered to his play style in Haula, easier matchups on the third line, returning to his position of strength at left wing and/or the lift that comes with a return to normalcy following two COVID-impacted years, and things finally seem to be working in DeBrusk’s favor for a first time in a long time. 

That’s good news for the Bruins, because a happy DeBrusk usually leads to a happy locker room — and a lot of tallies on the score sheet.

Jakub Lauko pushes Trent Frederic out of fourth-line spot by December

Despite a rocky preseason, the Bruins have made it clear that they want to stick with Trent Frederic and let him sort out his struggles up in the NHL ranks. It makes plenty of sense for Boston to be patient, given Frederic’s unique skillset. 

But the pugnacious power forward doesn’t have as much rope as you might think, especially considering the glut of forwards down in the AHL vying for reps up with the big club.

For as much as Boston wants to keep a player with Frederic’s sandpaper style in the lineup night in and night out, Jakub Lauko eventually earns his shot and sticks as a speedy complement next to Tomas Nosek. He’s certainly not the biggest guy out there, but B’s fans will be smitten with the amount of bite that Lauko carries with him on every shift. 

David Krejci doesn’t return …

Regardless of what transpires in Boston as far as Coyle’s ability to drive that second line, a mid-season return for David Krejci just doesn’t seem feasible for all parties involved — especially given all the hurdles in place.

Be it navigating through waivers, signing before the NHL trade deadline passes (for postseason eligibility) or just the plain hassle of uprooting his family after spending less than a year back in his native Czech Republic, a Krejci reunion just ahead of a Cup run sure sounds captivating — in theory. But is it realistic? Sure doesn’t seem so. 

… but Tuukka Rask does return — after signing a league-minimum deal

I know, I know. A bunch of BSJ subscribers just tossed their phones or punched their laptop screens in dismay. My apologies. 

Let’s be frank here — Rask returning this season only really makes sense if either one (or both) of Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman are struggling.

And that very well could be a possibility. Boston is hopeful that Ullmark will bounce back after a poor preseason, but setting expectations for goalies can be a risky endeavor. And even though Swayman hasn’t faltered yet up in the pro ranks, look to a guy like Carter Hart as an example of just how quickly a strong start can unravel.

However, we’re of the opinion here that Ullmark is going to be pretty solid and Swayman will, in fact, be damn good.  

So why then do the Bruins and Rask eventually reunite at the turn of the new year? 

1 - He’s going to be very, very cheap.
2 - He’s going to be perfectly fine serving in a backup role, if you even want to call it that. 

As much of the optics of Rask essentially serving as insurance would raise questions in most sports, the truth of the matter is that Rask isn’t wired like most athletes.

Considering the multiple comments he’s already made since undergoing hip surgery, Rask sure seems to want to be along for the ride in whatever role that might be — even if it’s just serving as more of a mentor to Swayman and Ullmark and a third option in a crowded goalie corps.  

Sure, there’s a scenario tossed out in which the Bruins just pass on Rask and he simply signs with another team as a free agent — but I’m taking Rask at his word in that he’s either signing here in some role or he’s perfectly happy with calling it a career.

Is it a perfect situation? Certainly not. 

Does the scenario we just mapped out make a whole lot of sense? Again, not really. (At least with the assumption that both Ullmark/Swayman are holding their own).

But given everything we’ve heard up to this point from all parties, it sure feels like Rask is going to be involved with this club in SOME capacity by the time the Stanley Cup Playoffs arrive. 

Bruins upgrade right side of defense at trade deadline …

A stick tap for the Mattias Ekholm trade rumors — it was a memorable run we had on this site. 

Of course, even with Ekholm re-upping with Nashville, there are still plenty of intriguing top-four candidates that Boston could pursue at the deadline in an effort to bolster its defense, such as Anaheim’s Hampus Lindholm.

Eventually, Boston instead focuses further down on the depth chart — plucking a meat-and-potatoes, third-pairing contributor from a rebuilding club to push Connor Clifton and add some snarl to this roster ahead of a grueling playoff push.

Boston certainly has the assets to vie for Lindholm’s services, but the Bruins instead use those assets to ... 

Trade for Tomas Hertl

With their contention window closing — and the lack of proven talent down the middle continuing to haunt the B’s as they plan for life in the post-Bergeron era — the Bruins pull the trigger on a deal for the top deadline target in the league, prying Tomas Hertl from San Jose for a sizable haul that includes Jack Studnicka, a first and second-round pick and much more.

Hertl’s arrival is not an indictment on Coyle’s play at 2C or the promise of a player like Studnicka — but rather a move designed to maximize this current window while also giving the next generation (the prime years of McAvoy, Pastrnak and Swayman) a legitimate star center that’s still only 27 years old (so long as he re-signs). 

With Hertl in place, the Bruins have a lethal top six in Marchand-Bergeron-Pastrnak / Hall-Hertl-Smith, while Coyle getting pushed down to the third line makes for a good problem to have.

Will the cost be steep? Absolutely. Could it lead to some bleak seasons, say, 5-10 years from now? Perhaps. But Hertl would give Boston a devastating 1-2 punch down the middle just in time for a Cup run. 

Jeremy Swayman is a Calder Trophy finalist

One of the reasons why a Rask return is going to be a headache? Because Swayman isn’t going to give up that No. 1 spot. 

Be it the eye test, the baseline stats or the fancy metrics we love to toss out here — Swayman has it. You know, whatever it is. 

Despite his age and inexperience, Swayman serves as a steadying presence as Boston’s last line of defense — finishing in the top-10 among NHL goalies in save percentage. Ultimately, Swayman finishes third in the voting for the NHL’s top rookie, behind fellow netminder Spencer Knight (who takes home the honors) and Ducks forward Trevor Zegras.

Boston finishes second in the Atlantic 

Despite what seems to be a Stanley Cup hangover over the first couple of games, the Lightning once again claim the crown in the Atlantic Division — while the the Bruins take second place. 

The Panthers ultimately finish a point behind the Bruins and settle for third place, while Toronto rounds out the pack in fourth. 

Boston outlasts the Panthers in an entertaining seven-game series, while the Maple Leafs FINALLY win a playoff round by upsetting the Lightning — only to fall to the Bruins, again, in the following round. Time is a flat circle. 

Bruins fall to Vegas in Stanley Cup Final

Do the Bruins have gas in the tank for at least one more memorable run? I think so.

After vanquishing Toronto yet again and outlasting the Islanders in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Bruins once again punch their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final. Despite taking it to seven games, the Bruins ultimately come up short in the desert — with the Golden Knights winning their first Stanley Cup title after Vegas' top pickup in Jack Eichel wrists one past Swayman in overtime. 

Even with a failed Cup run, is this still a woefully optimistic view of this Bruins roster? Absolutely. 

There’s still a LOT of moving pieces on this roster, and there’s a lot that can go wrong — be it injuries, uncertainty in net between Ullmark/Swayman, UFA pickups not pulling their weight, a smaller D corps and much more.

Maybe I’m just drinking the Kool-Aid a bit after watching this team in camp the last few weeks. But so far, these pieces do seem to be falling into place.

Aside from the expected production from proven stars like Bergeron, Marchand, Pastrnak, McAvoy and Hall, the B’s have plenty working in their favor — be it a slew of players primed for reversions back to the mean in Coyle, DeBrusk and Carlo, stronger secondary-scoring depth in Haula/Nosek/Foligno, a potential breakout candidate in Swayman and more. 

Add in deadline pickups for a legit two-way star pivot in Hertl and another hefty piece on the blue line, and this Bruins team has a shot to put together something big this spring.

And in a game like hockey, sometimes a shot is all it takes. 

Patrice Bergeron returns on a one-year deal with Boston

After finishing second in Selke voting again, Bergeron ultimately decides to return for one more season — taking a smaller, incentive-laden contract in hopes of putting together another run with a team bringing back a 26-year-old Pastrnak, 24-year-old McAvoy, 23-year-old Swayman and (potentially) a 28-year-old Hertl.