The Red Sox had exactly one "worst case'' scenario to avoid over the weekend. So, naturally, they didn't.
Before the New York Yankees arrived in town, conventional wisdom had it that the Sox just needed to avoid being swept. With a two-game lead over the Yankees in the wild card race, even dropping two-of-three would have left the Sox with a one-game lead with six games remaining on the schedule. If that one-game lead seems insufficient, consider that it really would have been a two-game cushion, since the Sox won the season series and thus, had the important tie-breaker on their side.
Instead, the Sox got beaten in all three games -- blown out in the opener, then, in each of the final two games, surrendered the lead in the eighth inning and couldn't recover.
Now, only the schedule can save them from themselves.
After Monday's off-day, the Sox have three games in Baltimore followed by three in Washington to conclude the regular season schedule. It almost could not be any easier for them.
The Orioles are tied with Arizona for the worst record (50-106, .321) in Major League Baseball. The Red Sox, after dropping the first three games of the season to the O's, have won 12 of the last 13 meetings between the clubs. The Nationals, meanwhile, own the third-worst record in the National League, but that's somewhat misleading because the Nats, as currently constituted, barely resemble the team that started the season. At the trade deadline, the Nationals waved the white flag and auctioned off half their roster. And since then, they've gone 16-37 for a winning percentage of .302.
"Ultimately, even though this was a disappointing weekend for us, I think we still have it in our hands moving forward,'' said Adam Ottavino after the Sox dropped the series finale 6-3. "If the season ended today, we'd be in. So all we have to do is take care of our job against Baltimore and Washington and see where that leaves us. We can't get too discouraged off of it, in the big picture, as much as it hurt tonight and just move forward.''
Manager Alex Cora sounded a similar theme.
"We're in the second wild card,'' said Cora. "It's not what we wanted, coming into this series. We wanted to win the series and keep the first wild card. It didn't happen. But we're still in position to make the playoffs. So that's not the worst-case scenario.''
The Yankees sit a game ahead, and right behind the Red Sox are the Toronto Blue Jays (by a game) and the Seattle Mariners (two games back).
It should be noted, too, that while the Sox get a cushy slate the rest of the way, the Yankees do not. They have three in Toronto, followed by a three-game series at home with division-leading Tampa Bay. The Rays may have clinched the division and have little to play for by the final series of the year, but they'll want to stay sharp that weekend since they have a three-day layoff coming soon after as a division winner waiting for the wild card round to conclude. And, the Rays always take great pleasure, regardless of the stakes, of beating up either of their more deep-pocketed rivals in the division, so a lack of motivation won't be an issue.
The key for the Sox, meanwhile, will be the Yankee-Blue Jay series. While the Sox are toying with the Orioles, either the Yanks or Jays will be assured of losing every night. If the Yankees lose, the Sox have a chance to overtake them in the race; if the Jays lose, they'll fall out of contention altogether, and while the Sox might struggle to grab home field advantage from the Yanks, they'll at least be ridding themselves of their next closest competitors.
It's not exactly how they drew it up a few weeks ago, and it could require the help of others -- never an optimum scenario for any team in the closing days of the season.
But other than playing the final week at Fenway, the Red Sox could literally not have it any easier. They're playing two really poor teams who likely can't wait for their long, ugly seasons to be over. Shame on the Sox for anything less than four wins in the final six games.
If they do that, they'll almost certainly be into the playoffs.
Anything less and they don't deserve to be there in the first place.
