For the past two weeks or so, it's been easy to do the math: If you slot in Chris Sale and Nate Eovaldi every fifth day until the end of the season, it would be Sale's turn to pitch on the final game of the regular season, and, in turn, Eovaldi would be lined up to pitch the winner-take-all wild card game on Oct. 5.
The Red Sox, naturally, are not about to set those rotation plans in stone, not without first clinching a wild card spot, and secondly, without knowing whom they might be facing.
Pressed, Alex Cora has said the Sox would be happy to go with either one of their top two starters for the wild card game, and, both politically and logically, that makes sense. Eovaldi has been the team's best pitcher for much of the year, and Sale, having returned to the rotation in mid-August, has been good to very good in every one of his seven starts.
But Friday night offered a reminder that that two are not interchangeable. Eovaldi was rocked for seven runs in just 2.2 innings in the Red Sox' 8-3 defeat to the Yankees. He couldn't put hitters away with two strikes, couldn't get a swing-and-miss, and ultimately, couldn't survive the third inning. It was ugly.
And while Eovaldi, over the course of the season, saved the Sox by snapping losing streaks and providing innings when the bullpen was overworked, Friday's game also marked the sixth time in 31 starts that he's allowed five or more earned runs.
That's not a huge number, perhaps, but it's a reminder Eovaldi has one of those outings every five or so times he takes to the mound. Yes, he's been largely consistent. Yes, he's going to finish the year leading the Sox rotation in every meaningful category. But he's also capable of getting knocked around plenty, and that's something the Red Sox simply can't risk for a game that will determine whether they advance to the Division Series or go home for the winter.
Sale, it should be noted, is not perfect. Heck, at this point, just seven starts in from returning Tommy John surgery, he's not even himself yet. The arm strength is still building, the velocity is still climbing and the command is still being sharpened.
But Sale has the ability to dominate good lineups more consistently than Eovaldi. And while Eovaldi's stuff may be more varied -- when he's right, he can throw five different pitches for strikes -- and his fastball a few ticks higher, he's simply not the pitcher Sale is.
Even as he attempts to figure things out and get ready for the postseason, Sale has been dominant enough to limit opponents to no more than two runs in any of his seven starts since coming off the IL. Only two starts ago, fresh off a 10-day quarantine from COVID, Sale figured out how to get through five innings and allow just one run. Mind you, that outing came after the only between-start work he got was throwing off a portable mound in his backyard.
That was a reminder of how special Sale can be and how adept he is at making the necessary adjustments on the fly.
If the Red Sox face the Yankees in the wild card game, Eovaldi's success against them -- this year, Friday night notwithstanding, and in recent seasons -- will make a compelling case for him. And indeed, the 2.87 ERA against New York (again, before Friday) is not to be dismissed out of hand.
But Sale is simply the better choice if your season depends on it. He's been the superior pitcher over the course of his career, and again this year, too, in an admittedly smaller sample size.
If the Sox make it to the wild card game and Sale pitches well enough for them to advance to the Division Series, Eovaldi would be a worthy choice to start Game 1 of the next round. Indeed, if the Sox do move past the one-and-done game, they're going to need Eovaldi -- and others -- to keep going.
Eovaldi proved his mettle in 2018 with his heroic relief performance in Game 3 of the World Series. There's no denying his competitiveness, or his ability to meet the moment in October. Won-loss record aside, the Red Sox would not currently be in playoff contention without his contributions this season.
This is not meant as a slight on him.
But make no mistake -- in a must-win game, Sale gives the Red Sox a better chance than does Eovaldi. And that, in turn, makes it all the more important that the Red Sox take care of business in the next week so that they're in a position to arrange their pitching so that, when the season's on the line, Chris Sale is on the mound.