Nobody should read too much in Week 1 or even the first month of the season, but there have been some disturbing trends for a few Patriots players dating back to offseason practices.
Players are not static creatures, they are constantly changing. As the old adage goes, "You're either getting better, or you're getting worse." There is plenty of time, especially after just one real game, for players to improve over the course of the season. But in our experience in the NFL, younger players stand a better chance at learning and improving, and older players have longer odds at turning things around.
With that in mind, here are five Patriots players that could use a big bounceback game against the rebuilding Jets:
1. Lawrence Guy, DT
The big man has been one of Bill Belichick's best free-agent signings since he came to the team in 2017, and this space has definitely been fond of Our Guy. He's traditionally been underrated, like many Patriots inside stalwarts (Vince Wilfork), because he doesn't put up the stats like players in other schemes. But make no mistake, Guy has been a very good player his entire time in New England.
But in Week 1, he was one of our 3 Down players, and that followed on a preseason and camp that was also underwhelming.
But don't take just our word for it. Guy was the third-worst Patriots defensive player in Week 1 according to PFF, ahead of only Ja'Whaun Bentley and Joejuan Williams. Yikes. In the preseason, PFF had Guy as the second-worst Patriots defender. Only Rashod Berry, who was let go in an early cutdown, was rated worse.
What's the problem? Guy is not holding the point of attack as well as he used to. Guy routinely would stand up to and fight through double-teams. Now he's getting pushed a bit by single blockers. The Patriots need Guy to be a stud against the run for this defense to work.
If Guy, who will be 32 in November, is indeed trending downward, age and also mileage could be catching up with him. Due to personnel shortcomings, Guy had to take on even more inside last year, and it might have taken something out of him.
I asked Guy, who was recently featured in GQ for being a football-playing vegan, if his diet was kosher to the Patriots, and if he felt he was playing any different.
"Everything that we do here they communicate with Ted (Harper), our nutritionist and he'll help you out through everything," Guy said. "They're a very open-minded organization, so they have no concern about what you do. As long as you to continue to go out there and perform, you can do pretty much whatever you got to do that's legal.
"I haven't lost not much at all. Still the same player that was the last couple of years."
2. Davon Godchaux, DT
Guy's new running mate inside is also off to a slow start dating back to the preseason. We were alarmed about his play in the opener against Washington, and it didn't get much better against the Eagles. Now that has rolled in Week 1 after Godchaux didn't do much against his former team, who he should know well.
Not sure if Godchaux just isn't grasping the techniques — would be odd considering he played in the same scheme the previous two seasons — he's just not that good, or just off to a slow start with a new team.
3. Dont'a Hightower, LB
Sensing a theme here? We thought the Patriots were a gridiron donut last year when they didn't have much personnel behind Guy and Adrian Phillips ... this is more concerning. Of course, Hightower not being good in Week 1 or the preseason is a direct correlation to what the linemen are doing in front of him. Guy and Godchaux were not good. That means Hightower was going to be not good, and he was not good.
We'll give the venerable Hightower more time, but there are two troubling issues with his play to this point: he didn't exactly run hard sideline to sideline on some plays, and he already appears to be battling a lower leg injury ... and those always hurt him in the regular season (he'd be Superman in the postseason).
Whatever it is ... the Patriots were counting on Guy, Godchaux and Hightower to shut down the run in the middle. That would set everything else, from the pass rush to the coverage. But the Dolphins' average backs behind an average line averaged over 4 yards per carry. That will simply not be good enough going forward.
The good news? The vet knows the deal.
“I pride myself on being ... not the smartest guy, but definitely want to push up my awareness as far as situational awareness,” he said Thursday. “It’s coming along, but obviously I want to play a lot better. Be a little bit more impactful.
“It’s Week 1 and we’re still growing. I’m not going to beat myself up about it, but obviously the more guys who play the best that they can, it helps out the team. I want to do a little bit better than that.”
4. Deatrich Wise, DE
Everybody knows the deal here. Wise, because he's a great teammate, tireless worker and leader, has become one of Belichick's binkies. The HC/GM stepped up with a contract extension for Wise when it was dubious, in a tight cap year, whether Wise would have had many suitors at all.
Not only that, but Wise has been a starter — at end in a 3-4 — the entire summer. Belichick loves his arm length, which allows Wise to, in theory, keep blockers off and to give him room to go make a play. The reality hasn't been that good for Wise since the team abandoned the 4-3 it was playing when the Patriots wisely drafted him out of Arkansas.
If Wise doesn't start to play better – and he's never been all that good in his current misfit position — than someone is going to have to have an intervention with Belichick to send Wise to the bench.
5. Shaq Mason, RG
A little bit of a surprise, but Mason had a very rough opener when it comes to pass blocking, and the Dolphins aren't even that good up front — but they do know which weaknesses to attack, and Mason's pass blocking was certainly one of them. Even PFF has Mason as the lowest-rated starting Patriots lineman in pass blocks. Justin Herron was in the same ballpark as a sub.
With some flux along the line due to injury, it's going to be even more important that Mason does his job and keeps an eye on, likely, Yasir Durant, at RT.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. It shouldn't really surprise me, but it still does, especially from some of the people it came from, but the overanalysis of Mac Jones as the week went on was really ridiculous. He played really well. He made some outstanding throws. He didn't make any catastrophic mistakes. I'm sure there are plays where he wished he pushed the envelope. But he was a rookie making his first start on a team with new WRs and TEs ... you should be impressed Jones didn't trip and vomit all over himself. Give the kid some time. Rome, or even Tom Brady, was not built in a day or a game.
2. Or, take it from Jets defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich, who spoke to New York reporters this week.
“He was way better than I wanted him to be,” Ulbrich said. “You anticipate seeing a young, inexperienced quarterback making young, inexperienced quarterback-type of decisions. I didn’t see a whole lot of that.
" ... You see a young guy with really uncommon poise sitting in the pocket. You talk about getting thrown in the fire, that’s Miami. They’re not afraid of zero blitzing and they came after him. Three pressured him and they hit him. He got hit nine times. That’s unheard of and he still sat there in the pocket and delivered throws and made a lot of really good throws down the stretch.
“I think he’s got some real skill and poise."
3. Patriots downgraded Trent Brown to out, signed Brian Hoyer to the active roster, elevated Nick Folk and Tashawn Bower, and placed Quinn Nordin on IR. If the Patriots can't beat the Jets without Brown, this is going to be a long season.
4. The heat is on Joe Judge in New York, as the tabloids are all over him. It's really remarkable that the Giants did a rush job on hiring Judge because he might go to Mississippi State. They didn't even interview Josh McDaniels. Good grief.
5. My BetUs.com Picks
Week 1: Patriots – 1-0 straight, 0-1 spread; Best bets: 2-1 straight, 1-2 spread.
Patriots (-7) 24, Jets 20
This line has jumped a ton this week, from a 3.5 open and has gone up a full point in about a day. Maybe the sharps know something. Could be a blowout. Could be a dogfight. We're not ready to say the kinks are out yet, even against a challenged team.
Panthers (+3.5) over Saints
People are sleeping on Carolina. They could be sneaky good.
Dolphins (+3.5) over Bills
I guarantee you Brian Flores has been his team all week about how they get no respect and are even big underdogs at home. Good luck in that heat, Bills.
Eagles (+3) over 49ers.
I'm taking another home dog. Told you the Eagles looked good in practice vs. Patriots. No, I can't explain it.