Two weeks and two days remain in the 2021 Red Sox regular season.
We don't yet know whether the Red Sox will qualify for the postseason, an uncertainty that would have been unthinkable as recently as two and a half months ago. On July 28, two days before the trade deadline, the Red Sox sat in first place in the A.L. East, ahead of the next-closest teams by 2.5 games.
Now, as they begin their final homestand of the year, they find themselves in a two-way tie for second place in the division, some 8.5 games back of Tampa Bay. If the team is to qualify for the playoffs, it will do so as a wild card entrant, guaranteeing them only postseason game under MLB's one-and-done format.
All of which has led to a robust debate: Has the Red Sox season been a success or failure?
Those who believe the season has been success -- even before the team's playoff status is determined -- point to the giant improvement from a year ago, when the team finished in the division cellar, owners of one of the handful of worst records in the game. Even with an abbreviated 60-game format, that season couldn't conclude fast enough.
By contrast, whether the team qualifies for the postseason or not, they're likely to win a minimum of 90 games, an accomplishment to which only a few teams can annually lay claim. To go from a winning percentage of .400 to .550 or better (the Sox entered play Saturday with a winning percentage of .564) is a significant improvement, viewed through any lens.
As much of a cliche as it may be, you've no doubt heard some variation on this theme from Alex Cora, Chaim Bloom or maybe a friend or relative: "If you had told me back in April that the Red Sox would be leading the wild card race with two weeks ago, I would have signed off on that in a heartbeat.''
And indeed, Cora and Bloom have said that, publicly. Which is understandable to a degree. It makes little sense to denigrate a team that, whatever it's failings, is going to win in excess of 90 games and stands a good chance of playing in the postseason for the first time since 2018. That's real and significant progress from a year ago, when the Sox were often undecided on the identity of their starting pitcher for a game 20 hours away.
But....
The business of evaluating a team and its progress is a fluid situation, that changes over time.
So the fact that the Red Sox were leading the division for much of the first half changes the equation more than a little. If the team had chugged along, five-seven games over .500 for much of the year, being in the wild card lead would seem like a natural progression of that level of play.
When the Sox dominated the division for much of the first three and a half months, the expectations shifted. Worse, when the team failed to acquire significant pitching help (the deal to acquire Kyle Schwarber proved highly impactful after a two-week wait for him to be healthy), an anxious fan base began to view the team differently.
Was management's refusal/inability to obtain another starter or a high-leverage reliever a sign that it didn't believe in the team? Was the front office's decision to not go ''all-in'' on the 2021 season a sign that the team had played over its head for the first three months and wasn't as good as the record would seem to indicate?
And then there's the team's performance since then. The Sox have played exactly ,.500 baseball (29-29) from the All-Star break to Saturday. Does that suggest they were never that good in the first place? Or that fans were correct to jump off bandwagon?
Who knows the answers to these questions?
"For a team that nobody thought was going to be relevant throughout the season, we've been relevant -- for good or bad, right?'' asked Alex Cora. "People talk great about us or they talk bad about us. It's still a topic here in New England, here in this area. I like the fact that we're still in the hunt, we're still in the middle of this. And it should be fun for next (two weeks).''
Even now, with a postseason spot within grasp, the jury remains out. Do the Red Sox need to win the wildcard game for this season to be judged a success. Or is one win too modest an achievement? Do the Sox need to win a Division Series matchup with Tampa Bay and advance to the ALCS to satisfy some? Or would a respectable showing -- losing, in say, a full five games -- be sufficient?
Some of this, of course, is colored by the expectations in the region. Had Bloom, in spring training, guaranteed the team would be participating in the playoffs at season's end, it would have been greeted with unvarnished enthusiasm. Now, with the goalposts having been moved, it may require a trip to the ALCS to satisfy a good segment of the fan base.
That's part of the expectation game that the Sox and the other three franchises -- led by the Patriots -- have in the city, where the bar is set at championship or bust. A mere playoff qualification doesn't cut it anymore, even if it comes after a season in the basement.
Another variable is market size and payroll. The Red Sox have a payroll north of $200 million -- as they have for much of the last six or seven seasons, and to some, that further boosts expectation. Add in that the Sox (and Yankees) currently trail budget-conscious Tampa Bay by a considerable margin in the division, and the frustration level grows further still.
In one sense, that level of expectation can be a good thing. It ensures no complacency on the part of ownership and management, who have come to understand that a winning season isn't always greeted as a successful one. That can push teams to meet what the fans expect.
But it can also be unrealistic and obscure actual progress. In a full 162-game season last year, the Sox were on pace to win 65 games. That they could add 25 (or more) to that total a year later shouldn't be summarily dismissed - no matter what happens between Oct. 3 and, maybe, the days and weeks that follow.
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Throughout the game, you hear the same sentiment from farm directors, evaluators and major league executives: the gap between Triple A and the major leagues is larger than it's been in some time.
"That certainly feels true,'' agreed Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom. "From what we see and feel on a daily basis, and even, to some degree, what we're able measure.''
That's one reason why some highly-regarded players have struggled this season. It happened in Seattle, where outfielder Jarred Kelenic arrived to great fanfare, struggled, got optioned back to the minors, was recalled and continues to have a tough time. It happened with Atlanta's Cristian Pache — another of whom much was expected, but, to date, not much delivered, resulting in a return to the minor leagues for more development time.
And with the Red Sox, it happened with Jarren Duran, and to a lesser degree, Tanner Houck.
They offer a number of reasons for the growing disparity:
1) The lack of 2020 minor league system.
This one, we should have seen coming. All minor leaguers missed out on a traditional season during the pandemic-shortened season. Some at least got the benefit of participating in the alternate site, where teams held simulated and intra-squad games. But that's not the same as playing in a real competitive atmosphere against other teams. So it stands to reason that development would be slowed for everyone.
No matter what players in the upper minors or lower minors did to stay active and move forward, it wasn't the same. So while major league players were advancing, many prospects were, at best, standing still, or in some cases, regressing.
That's now showing up for prospects being asked to make the jump a year later.
2) Media coverage of the prospects has never been more prominent.
That means expectations have never been higher. More than ever before, there's an incredible amount of hype centered on prospects.
"Ranking prospects....ranking (minor league) systems...it's all we talk about,'' bemoaned one executive. "There's so much talk about some of these kids, sometimes even years before they get to the big leagues. It's an impossible standard to meet when they finally (arrive).''
Some of that is exacerbated by the performance of a the game's top young players. Juan Soto, Ronald Acuna Jr., Fernando Tatis Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are all under 24, and each made their major league debut either as teenagers or early 20's. That, in turn, gives the impression that all highly-touted prospects are going to be stars from the minute they're promoted, and that's just not realistic.
"It's good for baseball that our fans know who all of these players are well before they get to the big leagues,'' said Bloom. "It does mean, however, that because this game's hard and there's an adjustment period at every level, that a lot of them are kind of being set-up to disappoint initially.''
3) Data is king.
"It used to be,'' notes another executive, "that it would take a while before teams had a 'book' on you. Now, they have the ability to look at pretty much every at-bat you've ever had (in professional baseball).''
That, in turn, has allowed teams to game plan immediately. In the minors, winning and losing isn't paramount; it's more about player development. Teams have access to scouting reports and tendencies, but it's not their primary focus.
When players arrive in the big leagues, however, that changes. Major league teams are focused on winning, and have plenty of information to exploit whatever weaknesses exist for arriving players. There's no longer a grace period.
All of those factors have been in play as both Duran and Houck navigate the 2021 season.
Houck has pitched relatively well at times with a 3,58 ERA and a WHIP of 1.160. But focused on Houck's work solely as a starter, the ERA jumps to 4.02 with a 1.230 WHIP. And notably, he's averaged less than five innings per start.
And while it's true that there are a number of variables that have limited his innings -- starting a few seven-inning doubleheaders, among them -- the fact is Houck hasn't yet gained the necessary traction, or the confidence of the manager and coaching staff, to pitch deeper into games.
"I think, on the whole, it's hard not to be pleased,'' concluded Bloom. "When you look back to where we were in spring training, 2020, it's really exciting to see how far he's come.''
Certainly, Houck's season can't be dismissed as an abject failure. But neither has he had the kind of impact of someone like Miami's Trevor Rogers.
Duran's season, currently cut short by a COVID diagnosis, is more black-and-white: Duran has struggled in every aspect of his game. His routes in center have been questionable and his swing decisions at the plate problematic. Though an admittedly small sample size, Duran is slashing just .215/.241/.336 in 33 games. Viewing his struggles last month, the Red Sox returned him to Triple A Worcester, only to recall him days later when the COVID outbreak first hit the team. Not long after, Duran himself tested positive.
"In terms of the results, he wouldn't have been brought up here if we expected the results that he's had,'' said Bloom. "We knew there were some vulnerabilities in his offensive approach that major league pitching staffs would go after. Those have been exploited probably more than we anticipated. Now, some of that is part is part of the development and we see it with young players all the time. I have every confidence because of how he works and the type of competitor that he is, that he's going to grow from this and it's going to make him better.
"But I think while we knew that it wasn't likely to be a super-smooth adjustment to the big leagues, it's been rockier that any of us had hoped.''
None of which suggests that Duran is a bust, or that he can't make the necessary improvement and become a productive major leaguer -- perhaps as soon as next year.
To date, though, he could serve as a case study and a reminder that not every player who is excelling at the upper minors is going to see that immediately replicated at the big league level.
"It all gets back to the importance of patience,'' said Bloom, "and understanding that development's not linear. Some guys are going to take off right away and not hit a speed bump until their second or third time around the league -- if ever. And other guys are really going to struggle early on. Some of those guys may have just found their Waterloo and some of them are going to figure it out. We are such an 'instant gratification' society sometimes that we don't always want to push through and figure out who's going to find their way and who's going to benefit from these early experiences.
"But the game is harder than that, basically.''