Each week heading into the Patriots' next game, we'll take a look at three factors in the game that we have confidence in from a Patriots' perspective, and three factors that worry us.
CONFIDENT
1. Patriots' front seven against the Jets' offensive line.
It was not a great debut for New England's revamped front seven against the Dolphins, as the group struggled to stop the run on early downs — the Dolphins often never got to third down — and to generate a consistent pass rush.
There should be no such issues in this game because the Jets' offensive line was bad, and now it's much worse now that LT Mekhi Becton was placed on injured reserve.
George Fant, who was awful at RT as the Jets allowed six sacks and 22 pressures against the Panthers, is expected to shift to LT. Morgan Moses, who was solid in Washington, will take over at RT.
The Patriots should feast on the edges this week, especially against Fant. The former Seahawk really struggled with speed against the Panthers, so you'd like to see Josh Uche and Chase Winovich get some cracks at him. Matthew Judon would be a better physical matchup for Moses.
The Jets are slow on the interior line so they are susceptible to a lot of the twists, stunts and linebacker dog blitzes the Patriots like to use. At least one of the inside linebackers for the Patriots will get a sack in this game.
The rest of the line also struggled, so this should be a "get-right" game for this group against the run and the pass. It will be important for the rushers to remain disciplined against Zach Wilson because he can run.
2. Patriots backs and tight ends compiling YAC.
The Jets are very, very slow at linebacker with veteran CJ Mosley in the middle, and rookies Jamien Sherwood and Hamsah Nasirildeen with him. The rookies are not very disciplined in coverage and they fall easily for play-action fakes. Watch for Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry on bang-action on the second level after playfakes.
I would expect James White and Smith living in the flat against the Jets, and making plays with the ball after the catch. I also wouldn't mind seeing JJ Taylor used in this game instead of Rhamondre Stevenson because this feels like more of a speed back game than power.
3. Mac Jones hitting a few big plays.
The Jets run a version of the Seattle Cover 3 and the Patriots have killed that scheme for years. While they'll need to be on the lookout for Jets safety Marcus Maye, the rest of the secondary is very green. Sheldrick Redwine started at free safety and he was torched by the Panthers on a few big plays, mostly because he's slow. Expect the Patriots to scheme up a few shot plays where they put Redwine in a bind with high-low concepts.
WORRIED
1. Whoever is at RT against DE John Franklin-Meyers.
Due to the size inside with the Jets, I would expect the Patriots to leave the four starters in place and to plug in Yasir Durant at RT. Whoever is over there is going to need help because Franklin-Myers was a terror against the Panthers with four pressures, including a sack. He's big (6-4, 283) and surprisingly fast. The Jets don't have much rush on the other side, so the Patriots should be able to focus their attention on Franklin-Myers. He's a game-wrecker if you don't watch it.
2. Zach Wilson's confidence and playmaking ability.
If the Patriots don't get a consistent pass rush, they could be in trouble because Wilson is the type of QB, even in his second game, that can get hot, take over a game and win it just about all by himself. Belichick did a nice job this week highlighting Wilson, and the first play he breaks down was the rookie's best against Carolina.
A "big-time arm" with a quick release and plenty of athleticism.
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) September 15, 2021
BB previews Zach Wilson and the Jets on the Belestrator. pic.twitter.com/XHT5JeK7HV
He is just a dynamite talent if you haven't seen much from him. He's basically a mini Patrick Mahomes in that he can make any throw to any part of the field without much windup, and not many are better off platform.
Wilson runs into trouble when he starts keeping plays alive by running backwards. He will put the ball on the ground.
Wilson should have a full complement of receivers this week as Keelan Cole (knee) and Jamison Crowder (groin) appear to be on track to return. Rookie Elijah Moore didn't do anything in the opener and appeared to shrink from the spotlight a bit, but former Titan Corey Davis was a handful for the Panthers. He's big and fast, but not consistent. The Patriots had zero interest in Davis during free agency and had Cole as a backup option if top signees Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne signed elsewhere.
There is no way I'm letting Jalen Mills see any of Davis — I'm having JC Jackson cover him off the bus. Jonathan Jones should take Cole, and Mills can deal with Crowder.
3. Beware of Marcus Maye.
While I'm worried about doing much running inside against Quinnen Williams, Folo Fatukasi and Sheldon Rankins, I'm more worried about Jones throwing against the Jets' strong safety. He's become one of the best players in the league, and the 49ers ran some trap coverages last week. Jones should know where Maye is on every snap and do his best to stay away from him.
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BETUS.COM GAME PICK (Use code BSJ)
If the Patriots can't keep Wilson on the run for most of the game, this could be trouble. The Jets have so many weapons that if Wilson gets time, he could pick the Patriots apart. I'm also worried about the Patriots' linebackers in coverage because Wilson LOVES to throw into the flat to the backs and tight ends if there's nothing open down the field. The Patriots have issues there.
But I have confidence in the Patriots rush in this game, and there will be some big plays for Jones. I want to pick a Patriots blowout, but I'm not ready to go there yet.
LINE: Patriots -6, 43 o/u.
PATRIOTS 24, JETS 20.
