There's plenty of uncertainty about the Red Sox as the schedule has four weeks remaining. Will they qualify for the postseason for the first time since 2018? If so, how far can they go in October? And if the team were to fall short of the playoffs after leading the division for much of the year, what would the repercussions be?
All of that will be answered in good time.
Then, after that, comes the offseason, which promises even more uncertainty, particularly because the current collective bargaining agreement expires Dec. 1 and few in the industry are holding out hope for a timely resolution to be achieved without rancor or interruption.
Still, it's probably not too early to debate a few questions surrounding the Red Sox roster, and one of the more fascinating ones centers around the team's designated hitter.
On the face of it, the Red Sox are potentially set with the status quo. J.D. Martinez rebounded from a nightmarish 2020 to post a very solid season. Heading into the weekend, Martinez ranked second in RBI, third in OPS, second in total bases, first in doubles, third in OPS+ and third in doubles.
If Martinez isn't quite the force he was in 2018-2019, he's still an elite run producer and a solid contributor to the lineup.
As part of the five-year, $110-million free-agent deal he signed with the Sox in 2018, Martinez has one year remaining at $19.375 million, with the ability to opt-out of the deal and become a free agent.
Martinez has had two previous opportunities to opt-out (after both 2019 and 2020) and chose not to, and while a case could be made that this is his best opportunity -- he could reasonably expect to get a multi-year offer elsewhere, even if it might mean a slight reduction in his AAV (average annual value), timing could work against him.
Martinez's value could well be enhanced if the National League, as expected, permanently adopts the universal DH. Suddenly, Martinez's list of potential suitors could literally double. (Yes, Martinez is a passable outfielder in short spurts, but no N.L. team would commit to tens of millions to him without knowing they could mostly use him as a DH. Martinez will be 35 next August and he's not about to become more mobile or athletic going forward).
And here's where the timing thing enters into the equation: Martinez must declare his intentions to the Red Sox within 10 days of the conclusion of the World Series. It seems a stone-cold guarantee that there will not be a new CBA in place by then, meaning Martinez won't know for certain whether the DH will be part of the National League rules for 2022 and beyond.
Again, every bit of evidence suggests the DH will be adopted in the N.L. The expectation was that it would be part of the 2021 season, but the Players Association refused to give up something in bargaining for that to happen, and the DH went away in the N.L. after being pat of the landscape for the pandemic-shortened season. Every expectation is that the resistance to the DH is dissipating in the N.L., and at a time when the game is desperate to generate action and more offense, it seems a no-brainer.
But it's impossible to predict how negotiations will play out months in advance and it can't be said for certain that the DH will be approved.
There are, however, a few American League teams who might work for Martinez. Take the Seattle Mariners, who went into Saturday ranked 23rd in runs scored in all of baseball and 28th in OPS. They don't have a lot of big contracts on their payroll, and a veteran presence like Martinez might be the perfect fit. If they offered Martinez, say, three year for $50 million or so, would that be enough to land Martinez? Probably.
Should Martinez opt-out -- players almost never do so without an understanding of what teams might be willing to offer -- it's difficult to see the Red Sox being interested in sweetening the current deal. Given the makeup of the current team, committing tens of additional millions to a player in his mid-30, already exhibiting some decline (Martinez's OPS is currently about 150 points lower than it was in 2018).
And that's especially true given that the Sox have a potential replacement for Martinez on the roster, one who could be retained for less (at least in terms of AAV) than Martinez.
Kyle Schwarber, acquired at the deadline from the Washington Nationals, has been everything the Red Sox hoped he would be. After missing the first two weeks with the club as he recovered from a hamstring strain, Schwarber has been a booster shot for the offense.
He's reached base at a startling .468 clip while slugging .609, with four homers in 18 games. He's certain to finish with more than 30 homers and an OPS well north of .900 -- both figures superior to Martinez.
Schwarber has a unique "mutual option'' for $11.5 million in 2022 that he's certain to decline. Given his performance, he can reasonably expect to top that on the open market.
Would the Red Sox be willing to extend an offer of four years for, say, somewhere between $60-$70 million? Probably. While Schwarber isn't the complete hitter than Martinez is -- lifetime batting average of .289 vs. Schwarber's .237 -- the gap is less significant when it comes to OPS (Martinez is .881 while Schwarber is .835). Add in that Schwarber looks to be still improving while Martinez could be in decline. And don't forget to factor in that Schwarber is six years younger.
Schwarber controls the strike zone, can be used anywhere in the top five or six spots in the lineup. And perhaps there's also value in exchanging a righty bat for a lefty one, especially given that Schwarber uses the whole field and could pepper the Wall at Fenway for countless doubles.
There's another scenario worth pondering? What if Martinez declines to opt-out, but the Sox aggressively pursue Schwarber and re-sign him relatively early in the offseason? The Sox could then find a taker for Martinez's one remaining year while going with younger Schwarber as their DH going forward. And the Sox would have luxury of waiting out the results of the CBA negotiations to see if their field of potentially interested teams includes some in the National League.
Worth thinking about, no?
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No, it's not your imagination. The crowds at Fenway in 2021 are skewing younger.
Anecdotally, that seemed the case on a couple of in-game strolls around the ballpark over the course of the season. It seemed especially true for Friday night games, which even Alex Cora noted, have taken on a certain party atmosphere throughout the season, with the energy level lifted and the crowd generally more lively.
It's not an accident.
Major League Baseball is rightfully concerned that its fan base is aging. By most surveys, younger fans find baseball to be too tedious, with the games too long and the action too occasional. There's been a concerted effort to have the game appeal to those on the lower end of the age demographic.
Adam Grossman, the Red Sox' chief marketing officer, has made it an objective in recent years and the effort is finally being realized in 2021.
"We've been working on this for a long time,'' said Grossman. "I think you're seeing it around baseball, too. My other counterparts, other clubs, overall, (are seeing) younger people on average have been going to games relative to other seasons. I think there's a variety of reasons. We started a 'Student9' program, which is, if you're a high school or college student, you can get into the park for $9. That really has taken off this year. It's one of those elements where it's a good value. People are looking to get out for an event, and with digital tickets being sort of our default, it's been a culmination of a lot of hard work over the last several years.
"What you've seen if certainly happening. There were several thousand fans at the ballpark (Friday night) on Student9 tickets.''
Indeed, the Red Sox estimate that they've sold five times the number of Student9 tickets than they did in 2019, the last 162-game season.
Grossman pointed out that while having a younger fan base physically at the ballpark is one goal that's visibly being met, additional progress is being made toward marketing the team to younger fans and viewers. He noted that the team's streaming numbers are way up - a platform that by definition skews younger -- and NESN's viewership has also featured a boost in younger viewers.
But it's at the ballpark where it's being most obviously manifested. The Student9 program is marketed via text alerts, which lets those who've signed up know of ticket availability day of game. Outreach to the many colleges in the greater Boston area has also been fruitful.
"The texts don't go out every game,'' said Grossman. "But there are some where we say, 'Hey, we've got extra seats available.' There's still some COVID hesitancy (among the general ticket-buying public), so if there's an inventory of tickets, we send it out and see what the response is. This year, the response has been really high, much more so than in recent years.''
Once younger fans are at Fenway, they'll notice a different ballpark experience. In-game music, which once featured more classic rock songs, now targets 20-somethings. Between-inning contests, meant to appeal to the high school and college-age ticket-buyers, include dance-offs. The right field roof top deck, a sort of outdoor beer garden, is a popular spot with 20-somethings.
It's all part of marketing visits to Fenway to not only the hard-core fan, but also, the more casual follower who wants to make it feel like an event other than baseball.
"We're a baseball team,'' said Grossman. "But it can be about entertainment and Fenway can be a great backdrop for a night out. For those who want to come and follow every pitch, tooth and nail, we still have that experience as well. It's a balance. And if you're not a die-hard baseball fan, there's still a reason to come to Fenway Park and that's what we're trying to create.''
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Think ESPN Isn't already salivating at the prospect of a one-game A.L. wild-card playoff between the Yankees and Red Sox on Oct. 5?
That game will be hyped to the heavens if/when the matchup is set, with ESPN treating it like baseball's version of the Super Bowl. Meanwhile, poor TBS, which is saddled with the National League game, a matchup that figures to be far less attractive. The best TBS can hope for would be Dodgers-Padres, but that's a far cry from the Boston-New York rivalry.
The lure of these one-and-done, double-elimination games is why MLB agreed to the one-game wild card format. TV networks salivate at the prospect of presenting a win-or-go-home scenario. Add in the historic elements involved for Red Sox-Yankees (caution: be ready for lots of Bucky Dent flashbacks) and that game could do a record number.
(In recent years, TV ratings for the wild-card game have exceeded most of the Division Series games, and in some cases, the League Championship Series, merely because of the stakes and urgency that come with the one-game format).
The current playoff setup means that's it's quite likely that one of the N.L. Division Series could feature the Dodgers and Giants, with both teams finishing the regular series with 100 or more wins (The Giants went into Saturday with 86 victories and 27 games remaining, with the Dodgers a game off the pace). That could be an epic series and the first time the two long-time rivals have faced one another in the postseason. (The famous 1951 playoff series between them was actually an extension of the regular season, just as the Sox-Yanks game was in 1978).
To those who say it's unfair that a 100-win team could have to 1) risk going home following a one-game wildcard match or 2) get eliminated in a five-game Division Series, I would offer this: win your division.
This is hardly a typical scenario that takes place every year. Since the two wildcard format was introduced in 2012, no wild card entrant has come close to winning 100 games during the regular season. It's an aberration that the two best teams in the game are in the same division. No need to throw out the current format because of an atypical circumstance.