On the one hand, even before the Red Sox fumbled away Sunday's game in Cleveland, they had accomplished their goal.
Alex Cora has preached the importance of winning series, noting repeatedly: "If we do that, we're going to be fine at the end of the season.'' And, having won the first two games in Cleveland, including Saturday's extra-inning nail-biter, the Sox had already checked that box.
Saturday's win, in fact, gave them three consecutive series wins, albeit two against last-place teams (Texas and Minnesota). Wins are wins, however, and there's no arguing Cora's larger point: if the Sox indeed keep winning games at two-of-three clip, that will undoubtedly translate into a trip to the postseason.
On the other hand, there's a danger in settling and that danger is even more obvious when you're chasing teams in the standings. And with Sunday's excruciating 7-5 loss to the Indians, the Sox now find themselves eight full games behind the first-place Tampa Bay Rays, rendering the upcoming four-game series virtually moot. Sure, the Red Sox need to do well at Tropicana Field because they have to keep pace with the Yankees for the wild card while staying sufficiently ahead of Oakland, Seattle and everybody else.
The division is now effectively out of reach. In the unlikely event that the Sox could take all seven remaining meetings with the Rays over the next 11 days, it would still leave them a game behind. And they'd still have to concern themselves with what the Yankees were doing while the Sox were making up ground on Tampa Bay.
All of which is to say that, regardless of its meaning in the moment, every loss is costly in the big picture. When the season ends Oct. 3, we don't know if Sunday's loss -- or any other one, for that matter -- could mean the difference between clinching a wild card or not. But we don't know it won't, either. The same can be said about home field for the wild card game. As uncertain as the one-and-done format is, every team would far prefer to be home for a winner-take-all wild card game.
And make no mistake: Sunday's game is one the Red Sox should have won. They were a single strike away from heading to the ninth inning up a run. Instead catastrophe struck, and Austin Davis allowed a game-tying homer, then two more hits -- with some help from Yairo Munoz, who was flagged for baserunner interference. Finally, Matt Barnes, stripped of the closer's role a week ago, entered because the Red Sox literally had no one else and yielded one more run-scoring single.
The Sox then went meekly in the top of the ninth, their late-inning mojo having been used up during the week.
Actually, you could see this one coming from a mile away. When Cora decided to go for it in Saturday's 10-inning battle, he knew he was putting himself and the Sox in a diminished spot for the series finale. Which isn't to say he was wrong to do so -- presented with a chance to grab a win and clinch a series victory, he gambled and won.
But Sunday dawned with plenty of foreboding. The Sox were starting Tanner Houck, who had not gone more than five innings or thrown more than 91 pitches in a start this season.
As it turned out, Houck exceeded both marks, but just barely -- and that was part of the problem.
Thanks to some control issues -- four walks and a hit batsman inside his first four innings of work -- Houck was already operating on fumes when he went back out for the sixth, having not allowed a hit, never mind a run. It showed.
Amed Rosario drove a pitch to the wall in right that required a running, leaping grab on the part of Alex Verdugo to prevent a leadoff double. There was nothing Verudgo could do a batter later when Jose Ramirez powered a pitch deep into the right field seats.
But it was the next two hitters in which the game spun away from the Red Sox. Houck was ahead of Franmil Reyes 0-and-2 when he clipped him. Then, Houck was ahead 1-and-2 to Bradley Zimmer when he caught him on the elbow. (Home plate umpire Nic Lentz could have properly ruled that Zimmer did little, if anything, to get out of the way of a pitch that was only a bit inside. But hoping for umpire intervention there isn't your safest bet, either, and Houck deserved what he got).
Maybe there's plenty of blame to go around for the fact that Houck hasn't yet learned how to get through a lineup a third time. Some believe that's a skill that has to be learned under duress, and that some failure must be tolerated in getting there. The Red Sox have seldom allowed Houck that opportunity, so it was no surprise when he couldn't meet the challenge.
Before the game, Cora ventured that lefty Josh Taylor might be good for one batter. And he was, retiring Bobby Bradley on a groundout to third as both runners advanced into scoring position. Problem was, Taylor remained in the game, and perhaps taking Cora's forecast too literally, wasn't good for a second batter, allowing a sharp single to left, scoring both and bringing the Indians to within a run.
A second solo homer from Rafael Devers helped steal one of the runs back in the top of the seventh, but that in turn was negated in the bottom of the same inning when Kyle Schwarber failed to catch a ball that dropped on the warning track in left-center, resulting in a run-scoring double by Ramirez.
By the eighth, the Sox were clearly taking their chances with Davis, who hasn't pitched badly since being obtained last month, but is hardly anyone's choice to nail down such high-leverage outs. When he didn't, it could hardly have qualified as a surprise. Instead, it was merely a crushing disappointment, considering how close he had come to navigating the eighth without incident.
Far later than had been expected thanks to a three-hour-plus rain delay, the Sox left Cleveland with two win in three tries, which hardly registers as a disaster. Then again, considering where things stood with four outs to go, they should have had more. And this time of year, settling isn't a great long-term strategy.