There is still a little more than a month remaining in the regular season, and the story of the 2021Red Sox has yet to be written.
The team could still reach the postseason, and a deep October run can't be completely ruled out. Or, it's possible the Red Sox won't make the playoffs at all.
But whatever scenario plays out across the final five weeks, the attention will soon shift, as inevitably does each year, to next season and what improvements need to be made,
We can tackle the issue of free agency soon enough -- which of their own players they should retain and which they should let go; and which players elsewhere figure to be targets -- but one thing is abundantly clear: The Red Sox have to address their infield defense going forward.
This isn't about the five-error game the Sox slogged through last weekend against Texas, or the subsequent two-error game two days later. It's really not about the error total at all -- although, the Red Sox rank 29th out of 30 MLB teams in fielding percentage, so there's that -- but rather, a season-long inability to convert balls in play into outs. It's a weakness that been a sore point much of the year, and one that could well hamper their postseason efforts -- should the Sox qualify.
In a ranking of all MLB teams, the Red Sox rank dead last in terms of defensive efficiency -- that is, converting balls put in play into outs. The Sox do so at just a .657 percentage, some 20 percentage points behind the next-closest team, the Baltimore Orioles. Meanwhile, the major league average sits at .695. And the game's best teams -- the Dodgers, the Astros, the Giants, the Brewers, the Rays -- are all .700 or better.
Other than some pitching stats, in fact, defensive efficiency is one of the truest indicators or a team's level of play. Of the dozen teams ranked below the league average in defensive efficiency, only the Red Sox (No.. 30) and wild-card contenders the Cincinnati Reds (No. 21) are potential playoff participants.
The Red Sox, then, are winning games in spite of their defense, not because of it. And should they indeed qualify for October, when games are, by definition, more competitive and more likely to be decided by a run or two, it's possible (if not likely) that the team's subpar defense could represent its fatal flaw.
Not all positions are in need of an upgrade for the Red Sox. Not surprisingly, most of the outfield play has been above-average, especially Alex Verdugo in left and Kike Hernandez in center. (Using defensive runs saved, right field, mostly patrolled by Hunter Renfroe, grades out a tick below average (-1).
No, the big problem is in the infield, where ground balls seep through, and instead of being converted into outs, extend innings and, eventually, produce runs. And it's here that the Red Sox have some significant weaknesses and, potentially, some tough -- if not impossible -- decisions to make.
Among the four infield positions, the Red Sox are only league-average or better at one position -- second base, which has been mostly shared by Christian Arroyo and Hernandez. All others are decidedly below league average.
On the right side of the infield, Bobby Dalbec has been atrocious. He has limited range, his footwork is poor, and he's out-and-out dropped on-target throws. A case could be made that the Red Sox can't afford to give up on Dalbec's power potential. Since the start of July, Dalbec has slugged .509 and posted an .839 OPS as he leans to better control the strike zone. And his two-homer game on the recent homestand was a reminder of his enormous strength and ability to pull the ball a long way.
But if Dalbec is going to remain in the first base picture -- top prospect Triston Casas isn't that far away and could contend for playing time midway through the 2022 season -- he's going to have make significant strides as a defender.
Second base is somewhat brighter with both Hernandez and Arroyo under control. The former, however, might be better utilized in the outfield -- He's a -1 at second, but a +10 in center. The question with Arroyo centers more on his inability to stay on the field. His current IL stint is his fourth this season.
The real trouble for the Sox, however, lies with the left side of the infield.
Though Xander Bogaerts has improved some in the second half, he's still well below-average defensively at short, which calls into question just how -- and where -- he fits in the future. It's easy to suggest the Sox move Bogaerts to third -- where he played briefly in both 2013 and 2014 -- but what does that mean for Rafael Devers?
Bogaerts is a superb offensive player and has emerged in the last two seasons as a team leader. There's no one as dependable on the roster, and Bogaerts fits the profile of a player the Sox want to represent them - both on and off the field. But if he's ranking near the bottom defensively among major league shortstops at 28, what does that say about where he'll be in another two or three seasons? (All of which assumes that Bogaerts doesn't opt-out following 2022, or, if he chooses to, the Red Sox pass on the opportunity to renegotiate a new contract with him).
It's no easier with Devers, who is among the handful of best run producers in the game at 24, and who should be a target for a lengthy (and potentially record-breaking) extension this winter. Sure, the Sox want to retain Devers. But again, where does he fit in?
If the Sox move him across the infield, that both blocks Casas and spells the end for Dalbec.
There's at least hope for Devers, whose defensive shortcomings are more sporadic and streaky. When Devers commits some errors, he seems to go into an extended funk, the way hitters sometimes do at the plate when they slump. The Devers we've seen, say, post-May is a far different defender than the one who racked up errors in the first two months. And while he's occasionally prone to errors still, his range -- especially to his left -- has gradually improved in recent seasons.
And what can the Sox do? It would be inconceivable to trade away the left side of the infield, which, from an offensive standpoint, could be the best in the game. And as we've noted, the notion of finding them new positions is highly problematic, creating a domino-like effect for other players and top prospects.
Still, there's no escaping the numbers. The Red Sox, as a staff, went into Saturday with a 4.28 ERA, ranking them 15th in that category. But their FIP (fielding-independent pitching) was 3.95 ranking them eighth.
With better defensive play behind them, the Red Sox pitching staff would be among the top third in the game; as it is, they're no better than just below league average.
The longer that gap exists, the harder it will be for the Red Sox to emerge as one of the better teams in the game.
_______________________________
Speaking of difficult decisions, it will be fascinating to see how the Sox handle the pending free agency of Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez has been inconsistent all season, though in his, ahem, defense, he's the poster child for the issues written about above, with an ERA of 5.12 and a FIP of 3.49, a gap of more than a run and a half.
On one hand, it's remarkable that Rodriguez has managed to make 25 starts and throw 126.2 innings after missing all of 2020 with a combination of COVID and myocarditis. On the other, this season has not been a good one measured in other ways. His WHIP (1.389) is a career-high, as is the slugging percentage allowed. (.447). His hard-hit rate is up slightly, while his BABIP is off-the-charts (.360) and easily the highest of his career.
So, was Rodriguez the victim of some bad luck and poor defense? Should the Sox toss out the 2021 season as an unreliable snapshot, especially given his health battle of a year ago?
The Sox aren't so deep in the starting pitching department that they can afford to toss some aside. Next year, they can expect to have a rotation of Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi (on his final year of control), Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock. That's not a bad rotation by any means, but it's hardly without questions. Eovaldi has an ominous injury history while Pivetta is about to make 30 starts in a season for the first time since 2018 and only the second time in his career.
As for Houck and Whitlock, there's plenty of unknown. For all his promise, Houck has made all of 11 career starts in the big leagues which is 11 more than Whitlock. So clearly, the Red Sox need more starting depth.
But what's a fair extension for Rodriguez. At the start of the year, the comp model was the five-year, $85-million extension recently given to Houston's Lance McCullers Jr., but that seems a stretch given what's unfolded this season. Would the Sox really feel comfortable extending Rodriguez with that kind of commitment? For that matter, would any other team?
It may be that Rodriguez would be better off taking a one-year "pillow deal'' to re-establish his long-term value, betting on himself to have a better 2022 with an opportunity to re-enter the market after 2022.
Or, the Sox could overpay for 2022 and make Rodriguez a qualifying offer. That would result in a salary somewhere in the neighborhood of $18 million, but also, limit their exposure to a single season. Even if Rodriguez rejected the offer, the Sox would at least get a decent draft pick when he signs elsewhere.
There are other decisions to make, too, including options on Garrett Richards and Martin Perez, but those seem like obvious choices (no) for now. Rodriguez will be far trickier.
______________________
Even as the Red Sox player development system advances in the rankings and improves from top of the bottom, there are disappointing individual performances that could the overall picture. Two of those in 2021 are Jeter Downs and Jay Groome.
Downs, part of the Mookie Betts deal, was thought to be perhaps just a half-season away from being ready to contribute at the big-league level. Instead, Downs has weathered a poor year at the plate, with a slash line of .177/.264/.314 to go with 11 homers and 29 RBI.
"Jeter is younger and he only had (48) at-bats at Double-A (in the last full minor league season in 2019),'' said Red Sox director of player development Brian Abraham recently. "It was fairly aggressive to push him to Triple-A (this year). We felt like -- and feel like -- he can handle it, mentally and physically. Obviously, there's been some ups and downs this year. I don't think anyone would argue that. But I really believe the ability to make adjustments, the ability to be open, learn our staff and battle some of those ups and downs is going to continue to make him a better player at the end.
"That's the offensive side. There's other parts of his game, if you didn't know his stat line, you would say this guy's having an amazing season, which I think says a lot about the character of the kid. He's improved tremendously at shortstop. He's improved on the basepaths. He's worked hard on a daily basis. He's brought the needed energy. He's been an important piece of that team that's done pretty well throughout the season. Obviously, everyone wants the offense and wants him to produce. But sometimes there are bad seasons. That doesn't mean it's been a failure. I think it's been a season of learning.
"He's made some mechanical adjustments and some basic changes and whether the numbers say so or not, he's in a much better place than he was coming into the year. It's about finding rhythm, it's about finding his timing, it's about finding a comfort zone where he can do things for a long period of time. While the offense hasn't been what he or we expected, I think there's a lot of other areas that he's improved upon and us getting to know him and having him know that he's a really important part of our future is a really important part of this season.''
As for Groome, (2-8, 5.35 at High A Greenville), just taking part in a regular minor league season is a positive after he went three seasons (2018-2020) having pitched just four innings total, thanks to a combination of Tommy John surgery, some other physical setbacks and, of course, the pandemic.
"I think this year has been a huge year for him, just to be able to pitch through the year,'' said Abraham. "He's had some really, really good starts and he's had some starts where he's struggled. But I think overall, I think he's earned a chance to continue to progress throughout our system and make an impact at the upper levels. I think he continues to show us why we added him to the 40-man and why he can be an impact arm for us. He's shown a lot of growth and maturity, not only on the mound but off the mound as well.
"We're excited about where he is. The stuff continues to tick up and he's going to continue to learn how to make adjustments and learn himself as a pitcher. The reality is, he hasn't pitched a lot (professionally). So I think there's still a lot of room for growth on the mound, which is a really good thing. I think he's at the point where mentally and physically he can make those adjustments and finally push forward in a positive way.''
