Late Sunday came the deadline for Major League Baseball to sign their selections from last month's amateur draft. The Red Sox announced that they had signed three more in recent days -- fifth-rounder Nathan Hickey, a catcher; 11th-round Niko Kavadas, a first baseman; and 17th-rounder Luis Guerrero, a righthander.
Those signings brought the total of signings to 16 of the 20 players picked.
But noticeably absent from this list was second-rounder Jud Fabian, a power-hitting outfielder from the University of Florida, with whom the Sox failed to reach agreement. As such, the Sox relinquish their rights to Fabian, who had actually signaled his intent to return to Gainesville earlier in the weekend on his Instagram page.
As compensation, the Sox will be given the No. 41 next summer in the 2022 draft.
Fabian was an intriguing prospect, with a high ceiling. He was regarded as a plus-defender in center field with plus power, albeit with a lot of swing-and-miss.
The slot figure for Fabian's spot in the draft -- 40th overall -- was $1.85 million, and the Red Sox, according to an industry source, offered the outfield just under $2 million. But Fabian was demanding a $3 million signing bonus and the Sox weren't willing to go that far over slot.
Teams are given a draft signing pool allotment, with the Red Sox being assigned a cap of $11.35 million, more than half of which was paid out to their first-round pick, shortstop Marcelo Mayer, the fourth pick overall in the draft.
Fabian was reportedly told by at least one other team drafting behind the Red Sox in the second round that they'd be willing to go considerably over slot and had attempted to maneuver himself to that team. The Sox were cognizant of that strategy, which is not uncommon for players and their agents/advisers, believing that they could ultimately convince Fabian to sign.
The strategy didn't pay off.
"It's disappointing that weren't able to sign Jud,'' chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told MLB.com. "We knew it was possible going in. We knew that if we were unable to sign him, we would be able to get the pick again next year. That made it worth the risk in our minds.''
On the one hand, the Sox' gambit was understandable. A certain amount of posturing goes on leading up to the draft and the Sox saw Fabian as an intriguing pick, as at the start of the year, Fabian was touted as someone who could have gone in the Top 10. But a disappointing junior year dropped his stock.
Then again, because the second round began on the second night of the draft, the Red Sox had plenty of time to ascertain Fabian's intentions and get a sense of whether he was bluffing.
On Sunday, they officially got their answer.
Still, the team's failure to sign Fabian was hardly the most controversial case of the draft. The New York Mets selected pitcher Kumar Rocker 10th overall out of Vanderbilt and offered him well above slot at $6 million. But the Mets were then spooked when they got a look at Rocker's medicals and never adjusted their offer up or down, preferring to let the clock run out.
An angry Scott Boras, Rocker's adviser, released a statement Sunday, insisting that Rocker was completely healthy.
The Sox also failed to sign three other picks: Shortstop Zach Ehrhard, a 13th-rounder; shortstop Payton Green, a 15th-rounder; and shortstop Josh Hood, a 20th-rounder.
Unlike the case with Fabian, the Sox will not get compensation picks in next year's draft for those three. That provision exists only for players chosen in the top three rounds.
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The Red Sox elected not to go over the first CBT threshold at the trade deadline. After taking on the remaining salary due in full to Kyle Schwarber, the Sox had the Minnesota Twins take back a portion of reliever Hansel Robles' salary in order not to go past the $210 million threshold that would triggered additional surtaxes on their payroll.
The team had been willing to go over the threshold for an impact acquisition. Obtaining, say, Max Scherzer or Jose Berrios -- both of whom the Sox coveted and had discussions over -- would have sent them well past the threshold, and the Sox would have been willing to accept the consequences for either player.
They weren't, however, about to go over for a player with lesser impact.
And here's why: In addition to the financial penalties that would be incurred, there would have also been an impact on free agency this winter.
Say the Sox don't come to a contract extension with Eduardo Rodriguez, who is eligible for free agency this winter. At this point, the Sox might want to offer Rodriguez a qualifying offer (probably in the neighborhood of $18 million or so). If Rodriguez accepts, he remains property of the Red Sox at least through 2022 at the qualifying offer salary. If he rejects the offer and signs with another team, the Sox would get draft pick compensation.
Here's where the CBT threshold comes in: if the Sox had gone over and Rodriguez signs elsewhere, they would get only a fourth-round pick. By staying under the CBT threshold, they'll also get a second-round pick.
Similarly, if the Sox sign a free agent who was given a qualifying offer by his former team, the same formula works in reverse: under the CBT, they'd give up only a fourth-rounder; over the CBT, they've had to give up a second-rounder and a fourth-rounder.
