The first inkling came more than a week ahead of the MLB trade deadline.
When the Red Sox -- and everyone else -- saw what the Tampa Bay Rays gave up to acquire Nelson Cruz from the Minnesota Twins, there was the sinking feeling that this was not, contrary to popular opinion, going to be a buyers' market. The Rays sacrificed two starting pitchers (Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman), both of whom were at Triple-A.
No disrespect to Cruz, still a force at 41, but two nearly-ready, promising stars who were ranked 10th and 17th within the Rays' system? And remember: Tampa Bay has one of the handful of best systems in the game. So their 10th-best prospect (Ryan) would have translated to a Top 5 (or even Top 3) pick in some other systems.
For two months of a DH?
Uh-oh.
It continued from there. It became even more obvious Thursday, the day before the deadline, as asking prices began astronomically high and didn't come down much.
None of which kept the Red Sox from trying. According to industry sources, the Sox were in on a number of players, doing their due diligence. But while they had been anticipating and willing to part with some of the good prospects they've accumulated, they weren't ready for the inflated asks.
Max Scherzer? That would have meant likely giving up two of their top five prospects, in addition to navigating the intricacies of the 10-5 rights and Scherzer's veto power. Craig Kimbrel? The equivalent to (White Sox second baseman) Nick Madrigal probably would have meant surrendering Jarren Duran and another lower-ranked prospect. Again, all for a two-month rental.
So the Red Sox acted more conservatively. They got a dynamic bat in Kyle Schwarber, who gives them power, on-base ability, energy and additional flexibility, if not exactly a natural positional fit. And the two relievers, Hansel Robles and Austin Davis, will provide needed bullpen depth.
When he's healthy, Schwarber will aid an offense that has slumped of late, averaging just 4.2 runs per game since the All-Star break, with a .745 OPS, down some 15 points from their average for the season. Schwarber will inject life into the top third of the lineup and allow for better matchups while providing some needed rest for the team's regular outfielders.
"I like what they did personally,'' said one N.L. talent evaluator. "I'm sure they would have hoped to add a little pitching to the rotation, but I think they'll be OK there. And (Chris) Sale, of course, will be a big boost. They didn't do a whole lot, but given where they are, they didn't have to. They're in the lead.''
So what happened to send asking prices soaring? And why, after years of hoarding prospects like newborns, were teams suddenly willing to part with them -- even for short-term rentals?
A few theories based on conversations with executives and evaluators throughout the game.
1) Coming out of the pandemic.
The 2020 season was shortened and played before no fans. Revenue was almost wiped out. Fan interest suffered.
Now, however, some normalcy has returned to the game. It's a full season with fans in attendance, and all that implies.
"I think there was some real pent-up demand -- both economically and psychologically,'' ventured one executive. "There's kind of this feeling in the game, 'OK, things are back. Let's do something.' ''
2) A change in philosophy.
If there's been a criticism of a lot of teams, it's not enough have showed urgency in recent years, more fixated on winning kudos from Baseball America for the quality of their farm systems than they are in winning a World Series.
It's part of a trend in the game, where self-preservation is the primary goal. Some executives would rather convince their owners that their well-stocked system means the team is on the cusp of perennially contending rather than risk sacrificing them, only to see the major league roster then fall short.
"I think,'' ventured a long-time front office executive, "the pendulum has finally swung in the other direction. It's like some equilibrium has been restored and collectively, people are realizing, 'OK, maybe we went too far (with the prospect hoarding).' ''
3) The perfect storm.
In addition to the shift in philosophy, the first half also featured three teams who had designs on competing for the postseason in 2021 -- and each fell way short of that goal: the Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals and Minnesota Twins.
Those teams -- the Cubs and Nats, particularly so -- decided to hold fire sales and start over. So much so, that when the Cubs and Nationals got together for the start of a series Friday night, the teams had just finished dealing 17 major league players from their rosters.
Just because the Red Sox didn't do more at the deadline doesn't mean the entire exercise was without merit for them. The Sox could well have laid the foundation for deals -- those not involving players on expiring contracts -- that could be restarted this offseason. Some of the discussions held in the last week involved concepts that were not focused on the short-term, including at least one deal that would have meant taking on a big contract in order to obtain some elite prospects. The Sox pursued this last winter with the Adam Ottavino deal (getting pitching prospect Frank German thrown in), and are interested in doing more of it.
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There's no definitive answer to this, but it bears asking: Was this the best trade deadline ever?
In terms of the number of trades, or players moved, 2021 may not rank quite as high. But if you're judging by impact and the number of teams who significantly improved themselves, the answer would seem quite obvious: Yes.
"I know (the amount of activity and big names) far exceeded my expectations,'' said a longtime talent evaluator. "Over those last 24 hours, it felt like there was a really big trade being announced every hour or so.''
You could put together an All-Star team of players/prospects dealt. So we did:
C: Yan Gomes
DH: Nelson Cruz
1B: Anthony Rizzo
2B: Javier Baez
SS: Trea Turner
3B: Kris Bryant
OF: Kyle Schwarber
OF: Joey Gallo
OF: Starling Marte
BENCH: Josh Harrison, Eddie Rosario, Adam Duvall,
SP: Max Scherzer
SP Jose Berrios
SP: Kyle Gibson
SP: J.A. Happ
SP: Jon Lester
R: Brad Hand
R: Craig Kimbrel
R: Ian Kennedy
R: Richard Rodriguez
R: Tony Watson
R: Ryan Tepera
R: Kendall Graveman
R: Diego Castillo
There are others, too, that you could swap in or out, to add an already solid foundation, one that, were it an actual team, would compete for a playoff spot right now.
In all, according to STATS Research, 23 players with at least one All-Star appearance got moved.
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Wednesday night at Fenway featured one of the more electrifying moments in recent Red Sox history.
Jarren Duran shot a ball to the right-center gap, a hard line drive that rolled all the way to the triangle. Running hard out of the box, Duran quickly displayed his elite speed, with his long stride and efficient baserunning, cutting the bags closely without any excess distance covered.
From his third base coach's box, Carlos Febles snapped to attention.
"To me, he's one of the most aggressive runners I've seen,'' said Febles, who played in the big leagues for six seasons, managed in the minors for several more and is in his fifth year coaching third for the Sox. "I've seen a lot of speed. I played with Johnny Damon (in Kansas City) who was fast, guys like that. I played against Kenny Lofton. But he's very aggressive. And he has the longest stride I've seen on a baseball player since Brian Hunter (who had a 10-year major league career as an outfielder). But Duran gets to you quick.
"(On that play), I was focused on waving (Kevin) Plawecki, so then I was thinking, 'OK, now I gotta focus helping (Duran) and when I looked that way, he was already five steps from the (third base) bag. I was like, 'Oh (crap), we've got a shot here.' That tells you how aggressive he is. He's always wanting that extra base and that's what makes him fascinating. With speed like he has, it can really make a difference in some games.''
Historically, the Red Sox haven't prioritized speed. There was Damon, and later, Jacoby Ellsbury. But some of the faster Red Sox players in modern history have been aging players like Otis Nixon, Luis Aparacio and others, who arrived late in their careers, past their prime.
Durran is young and has the potential to make his mark on the bases. Just knowing that he possesses the speed he has forces the opposition to think.
"I played infield,'' said Febles, "and I can tell you, it's not fun when you have a guy who has that kind of speed. He puts pressure on you. Even on a routine ground ball, you feel like you have to get rid of the ball quicker than usual and that's where the errors come. A team like the Marlins, you're going to make more errors (than normal) against them because they put that pressure on teams. Now, imagine playing against a guy like that. You've got to get the ball clean, catch it clean and make a good throw and get rid of it quick. So a lot of things have to click. Everything has to be just right. And that's true of a ball hit to the right side, but also to shortstop, where there's a longer throw to be made.''
Playing at Fenway should help Duran, too. Although there's not a lot of outfield space in left, as a lefthanded hitter, Duran can take advantage of balls hit to right-center and right.
"The bigger part of the ballpark -- center and right -- is where he'd normally hit the ball as a lefthander,'' said Febles."That gives him the room to run. When you've got speed, you feel like you always have a shot to score. And if he has a good secondary (lead), he's always got a chance to score on a single. It's fun. As a third base coach, it's fun having guys who can run like that. He already has good instincts on the bases. He has a good idea of what he wants to do with his jumps and what kind of secondary he needs to have. In time, I think he's going to be a good baserunner.''
But already, the raw speed makes Duran a threat to play against and a treat to watch.
