Between now and Friday, Chaim Bloom's got some big decisions to make. And there's no shortage of variables that come into play.
Among them, in no particular order: acquisition cost, amount of control remaining on the acquired player, roster fit, and clubhouse fit.
In the bigger picture, Bloom also has to weight exactly how much he wants to invest in 2021 versus the coming seasons, and in general, determine which roster vulnerabilities might be best filled internally rather than from the outside.
And, there are two other factors that go into the mix.
* Payroll.
It's impossible to know precisely how close the Red Sox are to the first CBT threshold of $210 million. Public estimations of payroll are inexact, and don't always take into account important things like insurance and benefits cost as well as incentives and bonuses that must be paid -- all of which count toward the ultimate number.
However, by most estimates, the Sox currently sit about $3 million under the first threshold.
That could be important as the Sox determine what they do in the next week. Would they insist that a team with which they're dealing take back some of the salary of a veteran player to enable the Sox to stay under? This could be accomplished in one or two ways: by including another prospect to offset the retention of salary, or by unloading a relatively modest veteran salary as part of the package being sent out.
If not, the Sox face two alternate approaches: They either limit what they add, or they willingly go over. And if the decision to go over the threshold is made, do the Red Sox then take a more aggressive stance and add a couple of veterans. After all, at a certain point, it doesn't matter. If you're going to over $210 million by a little and incur the penalties associated with that, why not go over significantly since the rate doesn't increase or the terms change until a team gets all the way up to the next threshold limit of $230 million.
Finally, if there's a willingness to blow right past the next threshold, the Sox could further enrich themselves for the future by adding a veteran and his salary by getting a prospect for their troubles -- not unlike they did with Adam Ottavino over the winter. At the time, Ottavino's value was uncertain. But the Sox were willing to assume the vast majority of his 2021 season, hoping that he'd rebound, but also because it got them pitching prospect Frank German.
Either way, that means a lot of configurations and financial data to incorporate into their decision-making.
"Obviously, it's been a really tough couple of years for the industry," Bloom said. "I think we were fortunate coming off of last year, which was a devastating year, that our ownership gave us the resources to go out and invest in the club and bring in all the guys that we brought in, both via free agency and via trade. That wasn't the case every year. It speaks to the competitive fire of our ownership that they were willing to do it and eager to do it. This year obviously has not been a normal year financially for the Red Sox, but no question the way that things opened up a little earlier than anticipated I think has made that picture a little bit less bad, I would say, than it otherwise would have been.
"And bottom line, I think this group has proven over the last two decades that they want to win. The resources are always there for the Boston Red Sox to win. That's never been an issue for Baseball Operations and it hasn't been an issue this year.
"Now, as far as the CBT is concerned, there's certainly no mandate (from ownership) to stay under it. I just think it's part of our jobs it's something we have to factor in. It's isn't just the finances of it. But there are other implications to being over the line that, like or not, impact us competitively And if we don't factor those in, then I think we're just being foolhardy. But that doesn't meant they have to govern everything. We just need to evaluate them properly and make sure that we're putting the right value on them and weigh that against the opportunities that are out there.''
* 40-Man roster crunch.
Naturally, it's highly likely that any trades the Red Sox make will include prospects. Bloom is determined not to undo the work he's done over the last 20 or so months to replenish the minor league system. He's made deals -- large and small -- to deepen the organization's prospect inventory, and unloading them for the sake of a rental or three in the next week will send the Sox spiraling when it comes to improving the depth of their player development system.
"Don't expect much,'' warned one baseball executive when asked about expectations for Red Sox trade activity. "Chaim guards his prospects very carefully.''
But there is one factor to consider: this winter, it just so happens that a longer-than-usual list of Red Sox minor leaguers will "age out'' and require protection on the 40-man roster, or risk being exposed in the December Rule 5 draft. It's a complicated formula with some exceptions, but generally speaking, players signed at age 18 or younger need to be added to their club's 40-Man roster within five seasons and players who signed at age 19 or older need to be protected within four seasons.
This winter, the Sox will have some easy choices to protect. Expect that INF Jeter Downs (if he's not added to the major league roster when rosters expand in September), OF Gilberto Jimenez, RHP Josh Winckowski, and though he'll miss a good chuck of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery, RHP Thaddeus Ward. (The Red Sox undoubtedly will be motivated to protect Ward when they think of stealing Garrett Whitlock from the Yankees).
Other possibilities include reliever Kaleb Ort (also taken from the Yankees, in the minor league Rule 5 draft), starter Frank German (included in the Adam Ottavino deal) and RHP Brayan Bello, who's made huge strides this season.
Conversely, the Red Sox could deal someone off their current 40-man roster whom they consider to have made insufficient progress this year, knowing that removing a current 40-man prospect will open room for the many who must be protected this winter. Some candidates in this group could include: Jeisson Rosario and Hudson Potts, both obtained in the deal that sent Mitch Moreland to San Diego at the deadline last year.
Bloom, of course, recognizes this logjam and acknowledges it could be a factor in who he's willing to include in a deal in the next week.
"It's certainly a factor,'' Bloom said of the looming overcrowding for the 40-man. "We have a full roster now (at 40) and a lot of guys will merit consideration this winter. It's a good problem to have, but it's something we will be working through this offseason, so it makes sense to look ahead and factor it in now.''
In need of 40-man roster protection this winter or not, some pieces that the Sox might be willing to include: shortstop Matthew Lugo (second-round pick in 2019), pitcher A.J. Politi (15th round pick in 2018), 1B/OF Pedro Castellanos, (international free agent from 2015) whose stock has soared with great first half at Double A Portland.
The Sox also have imported a number of starting pitchers in deals in the last year or so. Not all of them are going to project to successful major leaguers, so it makes sense that the Sox may be willing to deal from an area that is quickly becoming a position of strength and consider including Grant Gambrell, obtained in the deal for Andrew Benintendi.
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Already, we've seen one of the Red Sox' rivals -- the Tampa Bay Rays -- make a deal to improve themselves, landing DH Nelson Cruz from the Twins. Cruz gives the Rays the impact bat for the middle of their order, one of the most consistent run producers in the game.
It'd be tempting to note that the Rays, with Tyler Glasnow still sidelined, could use another starting pitcher but for the fact that they just turned around and dealt away Rich Hill to the Mets in what looked like something of a salary dump. So who knows?
The Yankees need help virtually everywhere -- in the outfield, at shortstop and in the rotation -- and it remains to be seen, especially after this weekend, how far they'd be willing to go just to chase down one of the two available wild card spots.
The Blue Jays are focused on upgrading the bullpen, which, frankly, could use all the help it can get. Toronto's relievers own a collective ERA of 4.09, good for just seventh in the American League.
In the Central, the White Sox are in need of an upgrade at second base with Nick Madrigal gone for the year due to injury. Pittsburgh's Adam Frazier would be a good fit here.
In the West, the Astros have a deep lineup and a solid rotation, but could use some bullpen strengthening. As for Oakland, relievers are also on the want list, but they could use a bat, too, given their .405 team slugging percentage.
In the National League, the dominant play of three teams in the West (L.A., San Diego and San Francisco) has effectively taken both wild cards out of play for the rest of the league. In the Central, it's doubtful anyone can chase down Milwaukee while in the East, both the Braves and Phillies have been given hope by the Mets' inability to pull away.
Most of the trade activity in the N.L. could be in the West, with all three teams trying to avoid the dreaded one-and-done wild card scenario, and then a Division Series date with the N.L. West champs.